Carl Icahn

• Ukraine anxiety triggers flight to safety, stocks tumble (Reuters)
• Woodrow Wilson’s Ukraine Failure Foreshadows West’s Dilemmas (BBG)
• Fortress Executives Join Peers Selling Stock After Rally (BBG)
• 303 Deaths Seen in G.M. Cars With Failed Air Bags (NYT)
• Putin Deports Executives for Speeding as Sanctions Loom (BBG)
• Russia blocks internet sites of Putin critics (Reuters)
• China Bond Risk Exceeds Ireland as Defaults Unavoidable (BBG)
• China H-Shares Post Biggest Weekly Drop Since October (BBG)
• Surge in Rail Shipments of Oil Sidetracks Other Industries (WSJ)
• Blackstone’s Home Buying Binge Ends as Prices Surge (BBG)

HERBALIFE RECEIVED TODAY A CIVIL INVESTIGATIVE DEMAND FROM FTC
HERBALIFE SAYS IT'S CONFIDENT IT'S IN COMPLIANCE
HERBALIFE COMMENTS ON FTC PROBE, WELCOME INQUIRY
HERBALIFE WON'T FURTHER COMMENT UNTIL MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Malaysia Says Stolen Passport User Had No Links to Terror Groups (BBG)
• Malaysia military tracked missing plane to west coast (Reuters)
• Freescale loss in Malaysia tragedy leads to travel policy questions (Reuters)
• Top German body calls for QE blitz to avert deflation trap in Europe (Telegraph)
• Firms Suffer 23% Drop in Asia Fees Amid Search for Cash (BBG)
• Putin Dismisses U.S. Proposal on Ukraine (WSJ)
• Lenovo says China strike an IBM matter, but it won't cut wages (Reuters)
• Congress to Investigate GM Recall (WSJ)
• New hedge funds face life or death battle for funding (FT)
• Muni Bond Costs Hit Investors in Wallet (WSJ)
• BOJ keeps stimulus in place, cuts view on exports in warning sign (Reuters)
• ECB Homes In on Risky Assets as Inspectors Fan Out Across Europe  (BBG)
• Snowden: "The Constitution was violated" (Reuters)

Retweets are not endorsements... but they really usually are. Which is the reason some are wondering just why did the FTC show a specific appreciation of this particular tweet sent out yesterday by a user who appears to have a bone to pick with Herbalife, Nu Skin and other alleged pyramid schemes.

#NCPW2014 Why have you not shut down pyramid schemes like Herbalife, Nu Skin and others? What is the FTC waiting for?

— AS (@ArbitrageIt) March 4, 2014

If they’re bailing on the market… what are the odds trouble is approaching?

• Turkish PM says tapes of talk with son a fabrication (Reuters) but opposition confirms authenticity, and national TV carriers cut parliament when played live
• Inside the Showdown Atop Pimco, the World's Biggest Bond Firm (WSJ)
• Ex-Jefferies Trader’s Customers Say Lies Common Tactic (BBG)
• Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox disappears in blow to virtual currency (Reuters)
• The messenger mania is spreading: SoftBank Said to Seek Stake in Naver’s Line Messaging Unit (BBG)
• Ukraine Replaces Central Bank Head (BBG)
• Yup, an actual headline: Harsh weather tests optimism over U.S. economy (Reuters)
• Hiring of Law Grads Improves for Some (BBG)
• Easy Currency Bet Gets Harder as the Chinese Yuan Tumbles (WSJ)
• In Ukraine turbulence, a lad from Lviv becomes the toast of Kiev (Reuters)

• Carl Icahn wins again: Actavis to Buy Forest Labs for $25 Billion (WSJ)
• ECB governing council member attacks German court ruling on OMT (FT)
• China Tackles $1 Trillion Data Gap as Xi Changes Metrics (BBG)
• FX Traders Facing Extinction as Computers Replace Humans (BBG)
• BOJ Boost to Loan Programs Signals Room for More Easing (BBG) - actually no it doesn't as it was "factored in"
• Four killed in Thai clashes; PM to face charges over rice scheme (Reuters)
• Goodbye unsterilized SMP: Bundesbank Backs Measure to Boost Funds in Banking System  (WSJ)
• Iranian Hacking to Test NSA Nominee Michael Rogers (WSJ)
• Ukraine Clashes Leave Dozens Wounded as Putin Resumes Bailout (BBG)

• Frustrated by Karzai, U.S. Shifts Afghanistan Exit Plans (WSJ)
• Yellen Testimony Guide From Payrolls Report to Emerging Markets (BBG)
• Gold hits three-month high, shares up ahead of Yellen (Reuters)
• Tightfisted New Owners Put Heinz on Diet (WSJ)
• Senator describes "gruesome" bin Laden photos (Reuters)
• More reasons for the ongoing economic contraction: U.S. Winter Storm Seen Spreading Snow, Sleet Across South (BBG)
• Barclays Cuts Up to 12,000 Jobs as Quarterly Profit Falls  (BBG)
• Boeing Considering 787-Size Medium-Range Jetliners (WSJ)
• AOL Chief Apologizes for ‘Distressed Babies’ Comment (BBG)

Around six months after first tweeting his admiration for Apple's cash stockpile and a "large position" in the largest company in the world, it would appear every business media's favorite activist is throwing in his chips.

• *ICAHN SAYS NO REASON TO PERSIST WITH APPLE BUYBACK PROPOSAL

Having been there to lift the stock above $500, with it back around $500, and following his recent "add", he now agrees with ISS that there are "other options on the spectrum of allocating capital." Perhaps he read our post on domestic cash over the weekend?

As everyone knows, AAPL is still a cash cow, and in the last quarter following the release of its latest iPhone and iPad, it generated a bumper $12 billion in cash. The only problem is that this is global cash, and as the company's 10-Q indicates, $13.1 billion of this cash was generated and held offshore, which means that AAPL's domestic cash declined by $1.1 billion. In fact, as the chart below shows, this was the 4th consecutive quarter in which AAPL's domestic cash has declined offset by a massive cash build offshore. And a reminder, "Amounts held by foreign subsidiaries are generally subject to U.S. income taxation on repatriation to the U.S." This also means that unless AAPL repatriates some of its offshore cash, and unless it issues even more debt, its stock buybacks and dividends are limited to the declining cash amounts held in the US. So if one were to extrapolate AAPL's Q1 domestic cash simply by subtracting the reported $14 billion used in the stock buyback from its December 31 US cash holdings, as of today, all else equal, AAPL now has "only" $20.4 billion in cash held domestically - an amount that matches its domestic cash holdings last seen in September 2010.

"Markets were over-priced coming into 2014," warns Sam Zell (noting that he does not believe in the Fed's wealth effect perspective on market-growth helping buying and selling decisions in the real economy), but while he sees a benign outlook for residential real estate, among his biggest concerns are "half-assed" Obamacare's "deleterious effect on the USA" and its "need to be radically changed." Supportive of Carl Icahn and his 'capitalist activism', Zell adds rather frankly that he believes Tom Perkins was correct about the "the 1%... for political convenience," and reminds Bloomberg TV's Betty Liu that "the politics of envy, the politics of class warfare are what has separated America from many parts of the rest of the world," until now.

For the first time since mid-October, "no brainer" investment AAPL has dropped below the maginot line of $500. We are sure Carl Icahn will be buying another $500 million worth of shares today... AAPL is now down over 13% from its December highs.

The half life impact of Icahn's tweets is now just under 5 minutes.

So much for the only silver lining in Q4 and Nasdaq leadership from AAPL. Moments ago AAPL reported results which beats on the top and bottom-line, reportined revenues of $57.6 billion in line with the expected $57.5 billion, and EPS beating modestly at $14.50 vs Exp. $14.07 mostly thank to the retirement of 46 million diluted shares from a year ago. However the good news ended here, with the one thing the market was focusing on - iPhone sales - missing badly, as the company only sold 51 million iPhones in the quarter of the 5S release, compared to expectations of 54.7 million. Additionally, Apple also guided to lower revenues than the street had expected, and is now seeing $42-44 billion in the next quarter compared to consensus estimates of $46.1 billion and for all those calling for the demise of the US consumer - you may be right: AAPL Americas revenue declined by 1% from a year ago, when AAPL also had a new product launch. Is AAPL's largest market starting to say "meh"?

• Emerging market sell-off raises specter of contagion (Reuters)
• China Bank Regulator Said to Issue Alert on Coal Mine Loans (BBG)
• Argentina to Ease FX Controls After Peso Devaluation (BBG)
• Pimco's Gross problem: who can succeed the 'Bond King'? (Reuters)
• Ukraine protesters seize building, put up more barricades (Reuters)
• Mideast Turmoil Dominates Gathering of Business Elite (WSJ)
• Central Banks Withdraw Dollar Funding (WSJ) - oh really?
• Samsung warns of weak earnings growth this quarter (FT)
• Three explosions rock Cairo, killing 5 (USA Today)