Carl Icahn

When Jeremy Stein warned in February of "froth" in the credit markets, it was much discussed but little action'ed. However, today we start to see some actions:

• *FED SAID TO ISSUE WARNING ON LAX LEVERAGED LOAN UNDERWRITING

With cov-lite issuance at all-time record highs (as we explained here most recently and Moody's tried to ignore), Stein's bubble is even bigger and whether or not the Fed 'tapers' it is clear now by this signal that their concerns over bubbles are growing day by day.

Given the carnage that ensued in NFLX yesterday, we suspect the following tweet:

Just sent a letter to Tim Cook. Full letter will be disclosed on my website, the Shareholders’ Square Table, which will be launched tomorrow

— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) October 23, 2013

which he notes will be released to the public tomorrow is more a threat of him "selling" his shares if he doesn't get what he wants... and given the market liquidity, who knows what AAPL's stock does?

• Top China Banks Triple Debt Write-Offs as Defaults Loom (BBG)
• PBOC suspends open market operations again (Global Times)
• Eurozone bank shares fall after ECB outlines health check plan (FT)
• O-Care falling behind (The Hill)
• Key House Republican presses tech companies on Obamacare glitches (Reuters)
• J.P. Morgan Faces Another Potential Huge Payouta (WSJ)
• Yankees Among 10 MLB Teams Valued at More Than $1 Billion (BBG)
• Free our reporter, begs newspaper as China cracks down on journalists (Reuters)
• Peugeot Reviews Cost-Saving Alliance With GM (WSJ)

Just as we wondered earlier in the day...

Sold block of NFLX today. Wish to thank Reed Hastings, Ted Sarandos, NFLX team, and last but not least Kevin Spacey: http://t.co/BRWpKOBfD2

— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) October 22, 2013

What is perhaps most worrisome for the market is the "real" sale of 2.99 million shares collapsed the market cap by around 20%...

These men are masters of the capital markets. They are voting with their feet and pulling their capital out of them. 

• Janet Yellen, a Backer of Pushing the Fed's Policy Boundaries (WSJ)
• Jos. A. Bank proposes to buy Men's Wearhouse for $2.3 billion (Reuters)
• J.P. Morgan to Cull Business Clients (WSJ)
• RBS Said to Pass Currency Trader Chats to FCA Amid Probe (BBG)
• Prosecutors give SAC settlement ultimatum (FT)
• U.S. builders hoard mineral rights under new homes (Reuters)
• Bill Comes Due for Brazil's Middle Class (WSJ)
• US expected to slash aid to Egyptian government (AP)
• Samsung launches world's first smartphone with curved screen (Reuters)
• Microsoft’s $7.2 Billion Nokia Bet Not Luring Apps (BBG)
• China raises hurdles for foreign banks (FT)

• Hilsenrath: Tense Negotiations Inside the Fed Produced Muddled Signals to Markets (WSJ)
• Biggest US Foreign Creditors Show Concern on Default Risk (BBG)
• Shutdown Costs at $1.6 Billion With $160 Million Each Day (BBG)
• What default? Republicans downplay impact of U.S. debt limit (Reuters)
• Top Bankers Warn on U.S. Debt Proposal (WSJ)
• India to stick with austerity despite looming election (Reuters)
• Japan's Current-Account Surplus Plunges (WSJ)
• Amazon Wins Ruling for $600 Million CIA Cloud Contract (BBG)
• German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall on Weak Recovery (BBG)
• Britain's Higgs, Belgium's Englert win 2013 physics Nobel prize (Reuters)
• Supreme Owner Made a Billionaire Feeding U.S. War Machine (BBG)

• A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall (BBG)
• Software, Design Defects Cripple Health-Care Website (WSJ)
• Gunmen kill 5 Egyptian soldiers near Suez Canal, 2 people die in blast (Reuters); Egypt death toll rises to 53, streets now calm (Reuters)
• Three retailers sell Apple iPhone 5C for $50 or less (Sun Sentinel)
• New American Economy Leaves Behind World Consumer (BBG)
• Dow's Exiles Often Have Last Laugh (WSJ)
• Macy's Puts China Online-Expansion Effort on Hold Amid Economic Slowdown (WSJ)
• Gold Befuddles Bernanke as Central Banks’ Losses at $545 Billion (BBG) - just ask the BIS gold selling team: they are unbefuffdled
• Markit Group Said to Avoid U.S. Antitrust Claims as EU Proceeds (BBG) - being owned by the banks has benefits
• Paulson leads charge into Greek banks (FT) - and scene for the Greek banking sector

It just keeps getting worse and worse for Bill Ackman. A few weeks after the epic humiliation, not to mention even more epic losses, he suffered on his now defunct JCP long position (despite ample warnings by the likes of Zero Hedge who said long ago JCP is merely a melting icecube and fast-track Chapter 11/7 candidate) all those who predicted (such as Zero Hedge back in January) that an epic HLF short squeeze would result in the aftermath of Ackman's Herbalife short announcement leading to Ackman's ultimate capitulation, have been proven correct. Moments ago, in a letter to investors, Bill Ackman just announced that he has covered over 40% of his Herbalife short position, with his forced buy-in explaining the endless move higher in Herbalife stock in recent weeks. The explanation of being forced out of nearly half of his position is amusing: "we minimize the risk of so-called short squeezes or other technical attempts by market manipulators to force us to cover our position." So Ackman is forced out by his Prime Brokers so as not to be forced out by market manipulators? That's an interesting explanation for what is a far simple situation: booking your paper losses.

• U.S. Government Shut Down With No Quick Resolution Seen (BBG)
• 12 House Republicans now say they’d back a ‘clean’ CR (WaPo)
• Republicans’ 2014 Senate Edge Muddied by Shutdown Message (BBG)
• Obama Shortens Asia Trip Due to Government Shutdown (WSJ)
• Fed Said to Review Commodities at Goldman, Morgan Stanley (BBG)
• Foreign Firms Tap U.S. Gas Bonanza (WSJ)
• Behind Standoff, a Broken Process in Need of a Broker (WSJ)
• Japan Awaits Abe’s Third Arrow as Companies Urged to Invest (BBG)
• Microsoft investors push for chairman Gates to step down (Reuters)

This morning's media blitz by Carl iCahn - demanding that AAPL's Tim Cook, borrow money cheap, lever-up, and gift it all back to shareholders through buybacks - reminded us of our previous post on the record high levels of leverage in US corporations. To a point, firms can add debt as earnings and equity value increase - leaving leverage and credit risk somewhat constant. However, the last few years, in spite of Maria Bartiromo's constant drivel of cash on the balance sheets, companies have increased debt faster than EBITDA, leverage is at record levels, and credit markets appear to have peaked (as they did in 2007).

Carl iCahn - whose media presence outweighs his shareholder presence - has tweeted the results of his dinner with Apple's Tim Cook.

Had a cordial dinner with Tim last night. We pushed hard for a 150 billion buyback. We decided to continue dialogue in about three weeks.

— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) October 1, 2013

AAPL shares are surging and the market is following suit...

• Government Shuts Down as Congress Misses Deadline (WSJ); Shutdown starts, 1 million workers on unpaid leave (Reuters); Government Shutdown Begins as Deadlocked Congress Flails (BBG)
• This is not The Onion: Stocks Rise on U.S. Government Shutdown (BBG)
• Pentagon chief says shutdown hurts U.S. credibility with allies (Reuters)
• In historic step, Japan PM hikes tax; will cushion blow to economy (Reuters)
• Obama Says He Won’t Give Into ‘Ideological’ Budget Demand (BBG)
• More part-time warehouse workers: Amazon to Hire 70,000 Workers for the Holidays (WSJ)
• Less full-time legitimate workers: Merck to fire 8,500 workers  (BBG)
• Education cuts hit America’s poor (FT)
• Euro-Zone Factory Growth Slows (WSJ)
• Watchdog Warns EU Not to Water Down Insurance Rules (Reuters)

While it is not entirely accurate to blame the ignominious downfall of RIMM BlackBerry on current CEO Thorsten Heins, who only took over from Co-CEOs Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsille in early 2012 at a time when the company's decline into irrelevance was already in progress, it is safe to say that the amount of stockholder value destruction under Heins' watch has been unprecedented. As such, one would imagine that the compensation for Heins is "equitable" to his value created for the company and its shareholders, i.e. zero. One would be wrong: as it turns out, and as Reuters reports, in the case of an "exit" event, such as the (faux) $4.7 billion LBO by FairFax Holdings at a price that is just shy of it decade (and longer) lows Heins will profit handsomely, and certainly make far more money than anyone who was long BBRY under his watch. Because the golden parachute that awaits the German, is valued at a whopping $55 million: an amount he will pocket no matter how said exit is achieved, and at what price (or rather cost) to shareholders.

It’s often argued that they don’t a bell at the top. I would argue that we numerous bells ringing in the financial markets today.