Carl Icahn

We have corporate insiders selling the farm, investment legends warning of a collapse, institutional investors selling stocks, and global growth slowing rapidly.

Just say no!!

• Russia faces new U.S., EU sanctions over Ukraine crisis (Reuters)
• Glasgow pulls no punches in welcome to 'Save the Union Express' (Guardian)
• Pound Seen Tumbling Up to 10% on Scottish Yes Vote (BBG)
• Moscow stifles dissent as soldiers return in coffins (Reuters)
• Ukraine's leader sees no military solution of crisis, eyes reforms (Reuters)
• Venezuela Threatens Harvard Professor for Default Comment (BBG)
• Australia Raises Terror Alert to Highest Level in a Decade (BBG)
• Activist Investors Build Up Their War Chests (WSJ)

Today's markets exist in an Oz-like, fantasy world. For 5 years now, stock and bond prices have risen like Dorothy's balloon, with hardly a puff of downdraft to spoil the fun. Everybody likes higher prices, so let's have them always go up! Forever! But what if...

Here we go... Icahn's been adding and everyone's excited about a bigger screen (like Samsung), an iWatch (like Motorola and Samsung), payments (like NFC on Samsung phones), Health (like Samsung), or whatever magic Tim Cook and his 'innovators' have in store. Apple's launch of iPhone 6 et al. will take place shortly...

• Showtime for Apple: Big phones, smart watches and high expectations (Reuters)
• Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney Signals Spring Rate Rise (WSJ)
• Quebec Shows Scots Question Returns Even If Answer Is No (BBG)
• Hush money with a 9 year vesting period: Ex-SAC Fund Manager Martoma Sentenced to Nine Years in Prison (BBG)
• Dreams on hold, Brazil's 'new middle class' turns on Rousseff (Reuters)
• Fed to Hit Biggest U.S. Banks With Tougher Capital Surcharge (WSJ)
• Egypt court sentences Brotherhood leader, cleric to 20 years in jail (Reuters)

"The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time," explains billionaire investor Sam Zell adding that "I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking." Zell concludes that "this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn't such a terrible thing." Zell's calls should not be shocking following Soros. Druckenmiller, and Icahn's warnings that there is trouble ahead.

• FTW: Europe Stocks Rise as Data Signals Need for Stimulus (BBG)
• More de-escalation: Dozens die in Ukraine in street battles, Donetsk shelling (Reuters)
• Calm largely holds in Missouri after grand jury opens shooting investigation (Reuters)
• Attorney General Eric Holder Vows Thorough Probe of Ferguson Shooting (WSJ)
• World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Slows Emerging Market Investment (BBG)
• Market Chilly to Argentine Debt Proposal (WSJ)
• Israeli air strike kills three Hamas commanders in Gaza (Reuters)
• Retooled Hamas Bloodies Israel With Help From Hezbollah (BBG)
• Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers (WSJ)
• Fed Debates Early Rate Increases (WSJ)

• Barack Obama's 'vacation from hell' (Politico)
• Russian aid convoy checked; military vehicles mass near Ukraine (Reuters)
• Ukraine Says APCs Entered From Russia to Aid Insurgents (BBG)
• Islamic State Said to Challenge Al-Qaeda for Leadership (BBG)
• Missouri protests calmer after governor puts black police captain in charge (Reuters)
• Finally someone will prove the US is a pyramid scheme (in a 1000 page presentation): Ackman’s Pershing Square Sues U.S. Over Fannie, Freddie (BBG)
• Banks, Financial Firms Load Up on Cheap Debt (WSJ)
• Putin to Meet Finnish President as Threat of Cold War Grows (BBG)

• Obama says Missouri shooting death tragic, reflection needed (Reuters)
• U.S. Weighs Iraq Rescue Mission to Save Yazidis (WSJ)
• Maliki says Abadi's appointment as Iraqi PM 'has no value' (Reuters)
• Iran Joins U.S. in Backing Replacement for Iraq’s Maliki (BBG)
• Kurds Push Attack in North Iraq as Maliki Clings to Power (BBG)
• Obama Donors Embrace Corporate Inversions He Criticizes (BBG)
• Syrian Forces Advance on Aleppo, Rebels Fear Another Siege (WSJ)
• Israel, Palestinians pursue Gaza deal with ceasefire clock ticking (Reuters)
• Ebola Drug’s Success Bolsters Approach for Other Diseases (BBG)
• With Natural Gas Byproduct, Iran Sidesteps Sanctions (NYT)
• Kazakhs to Hoard Food as Putin Sanctions Rattle Alliance (BBG)

A month ago, Carl Icahn told told CNBC that he was "very nervous" about US equity markets. Reflecting on Yellen's apparent cluelessness of the consequences of her actions, and fearful of the build of derivative positions, Icahn says he's "worried" because if Yellen does not understand the end-game then "there's no argument - you have to worry about the excesssive printing of money!" Today he follows up that warning with an op-ed that states "we are in a major asset bubble that continues to grow," supporting Stiglitz comments that "these very strong stock market prices are in a sense a symptom of the weak economy, not a symptom that we are about to have a strong recovery to our real economy."

• The market in one sentence: Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound (BBG)
• Europe subdued, Russia shares tumble on new sanctions (Reuters)
• Chinese Data Don’t Add Up (WSJ)
• Argentine Default Drama Nears Critical Stage (WSJ)
• Global Pressure Mounts on Israel to End Gaza Fighting (BBG)
• Ukraine troops advance as experts renew attempt to reach crash site (Reuters)
• Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority (WSJ)
• Europe’s banking union faces legal challenge in Germany (FT)
• Investors Bet on China's Large Property Developers (WSJ)
• Hague court orders Russia to pay over $50 billion in Yukos case (Reuters)

UPDATE: This is now the biggest single-day rise in HLF's history...

Bill Ackman's "most important presentation of his career" is not going so well. The 'Death Blow' expectations Ackman created yesterday (that sent the stock down 13%) have been entirely wiped away as a 2-hour presentation, 100s of slides, and nothing really new sent stocks 16% higher today... It appears time is running out for Mr. Ackman as his massive put position (bleeding value every day that passes) is set to expire in six months... and we suspect Carl Icahn can outlast Ackman's view of market 'irrationality'.

The question on everyone's lips... how many slides? And where's Carl Icahn?

• Bubble Paranoia Setting in as S&P 500 Surge Stirs Angst (BBG)
• But how will math PhDs determine "fair value" - Wall Street Techs Take Secrets to Next Job at Their Peril (BBG)
• U.S., EU Escalate Russia Sanctions as Putin Holds Firm (Bloomberg)
• Australia Becomes First Developed Nation to Repeal Carbon Tax (WSJ)
• Gaza humanitarian truce goes into force, hours after tunnel clash (Reuters)
• Barclays, Deutsche Bank Said to Face U.S. Senate Hearing (BBG)
• ECB Asset Buying Far Off and May Not Come, Hansson Says (BBG)
• Time Warner win would make Murdoch U.S. media king (Reuters)
• Costly Vertex Drug Is Denied, and Medicaid Patients Sue (WSJ)
• China Rallying for All Wrong Reasons to Top-Rated Analyst (BBG)
• GM recalls some cars with problematic switches; judges others safe (Reuters)