Circuit Breakers

Frontrunning: September 26

  • Demise of Obamacare Repeal Shows How Far GOP Remains From Goal (BBG)
  • Republican’s Latest Tax Plan Has Little Room to Maneuver (WSJ)
  • Mexico in three-day countdown to search for earthquake survivors (Reuters)
  • Oil near 26-month high as Turkey threatens to choke Kurdish exports (Reuters)
  • North Korea bolsters defenses after flight by U.S. bombers as rhetoric escalates (Reuters)

Morgan Stanley Begs To "Make My Portfolio Great Again"

"Every client overnight asked us the same question - "should I buy the dip?" with the futures hitting temporary shutdown circuit breakers as we are typing this around midnight New York time. We'd love to say yes, as we have been avid dip buyers over the past few years. But, our gut instinct is no."

Why All The Yawning Over The Yuan?

China may have decided to strike first, not by intervening, rather, by something more innocuous, but just as devastating: By standing on the sidelines. We're afraid we shall find out much sooner than many imagine...

Brexit Proved It's All A Central Bank Funded Mirage

Why can’t the markets proceed any higher than when QE ended in Oct/Nov of 2014? You know, if this is truly: a fundamentally based bull market that is. Or, is it that – its fundamentally full of bull? I believe it’s a big-ole-pile of the latter, and little to none of the former. Put a different way: Explain why does it take more central banker intervention, or the promise thereof, to stop these falls? If it were all “fundamentally” based on market principles, again, why is there a need or call for even more monetary interventionism? (i.e., negative interest rates, “helicopter” styled moves, etc., etc.)

Consensus Forming: China Heading Back Into Financial Crisis

China’s historic post-2009 debt binge flew largely under the radar - fooling most observers into thinking the global economy was recovering rather than just re-leveraging. Now Beijing is back at it, borrowing over $1 trillion in this year’s first quarter, buying up commodities and creating the illusion of global growth. But this time the scam hasn’t gone unnoticed. Reporters, editors and money managers seem, at last, to be catching on. So think of today’s relative calm as the eye of yet another storm, and what’s coming as a return to the hyper-leveraged new normal.