• hedgeless_horseman
    07/11/2014 - 16:58
    No signal lights, bank alarms, stores are being robbed for anything of value. You move to your trunk and get you Bug Out bag and start heading home, the best way you know.

default

Tyler Durden's picture

17% Default Rate Implies Default A Day





Nothing so far today, means two tomorrow.

In the meantime apparently there was movement higher in auto term loans today as the rescue proposals imply government funding would rank junior to existing private financing. Chrysler, Ford and GM all gained 2-3 points in intraday trading.

Also, Bernanke to release Long-Term economic forecasts and present the Fed's long-term inflation goal. Fed says "credit risk in Fed actions exceptionally low." Greenspan used to say bubble risk in Fed actions exceptionally low too...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

California CDS Cheap As State Likely To Default





California seems poised for imminent financial collapse and it is anyone's guess how far the impact of a state default could propagate. California CDS offered at 355 seem cheap, especially when one considers that the one year default prob per the spread is 17.7% at a 80% recovery rate and drops to 9% if one assumes 60% recovery. Of course the question is whether the federal govt will bail out Cali, and just how an event of default will be defined for General Obligation securities, although all signs point to a test very soon in the future.
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Terex Stock Hammered Pre-Market on Fears of Technical Default





Terex, the maker of heavy duty off-road and mining trucks, announced earnings last night of $0.62 which actually bear street consensus of $0.54, however this morning the stock is down about 30% premarket on this ominous disclosure in the 8K filed:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Terex Stock Hammered Pre-Market on Fears of Technical Default





Terex, the maker of heavy duty off-road and mining trucks, announced earnings last night of $0.62 which actually bear street consensus of $0.54, however this morning the stock is down about 30% premarket on this ominous disclosure in the 8K filed:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Russia About to Default On Sovereign Debt Again





Developing Story:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Russia About to Default On Sovereign Debt Again





Developing Story:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Russia About to Default On Sovereign Debt Again





Developing Story:

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Overview Of Implied Default Rates and Probabilities





It is always entertaining to listen to Mark "Hogan's Bottom" Haines speculate about implied defaults, recoveries and what not... So we decided to dispel some ambiguity and speculation by presenting a brief overview of what the implied bankruptcy rate is, at least mathematically.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Death Watch: Greece, and What Its Default Could Mean





The biggest threat to the U.S. Obama rally and the miracle recovery proposed by Democrats in the $825 billion bail out package may possibly reside about 6,000 miles away in Greece.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Death Watch: Greece, and What Its Default Could Mean





The biggest threat to the U.S. Obama rally and the miracle recovery proposed by Democrats in the $825 billion bail out package may possibly reside about 6,000 miles away in Greece.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Death Watch: Greece, and What Its Default Could Mean





The biggest threat to the U.S. Obama rally and the miracle recovery proposed by Democrats in the $825 billion bail out package may possibly reside about 6,000 miles away in Greece.

 
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