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Will The Oil Patch Bust Trigger Recession?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/22/2015 10:16 -0500This seemingly inexhaustible credit line is now drying up, with severely negative consequences for oil producers with debt that's coming due. The row of dominoes swaying unsteadily in these stiff winds won't take much to topple.
Ongoing Greece Deposit Run Forces ECB To Boost Greek ELA Ceiling Yet Again
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/22/2015 09:49 -0500Despite the imploring of Greek bankers for Greeks to "take your money out of your chests and houses – which are not safe in any case – and deposit at banks," it appears the Greek bank deposit run continues. As The ECB just announced another €900 million increase in Emergency Liquidity Assistance, strongly suggesting that in the 2 days since the last increase, banks are once again insolvent facing a liquidity crunch as the "banks are trustworthy" propaganda falls on very deaf Greek ears.
Apple, Microsoft Plunge Drags Global Markets Lower, Oil Resumes Slide
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/22/2015 05:52 -0500While this week has been, and continues to be, devoid of macro updates, yesterday's flurry of mostly disappointing earnings releases both before and after the open, including some of the biggest DJIA companies as well as the current and previously biggest and most important companies in the world, AAPL and MSFT, both of which came crashing down following earnings and forecasts that were well short of market expectations, came as a jolt to a market that was artificially priced by central bank liquidity and HFT momo algos beyond perfection. Add to that yesterday's downward revision to historical industrial production which confirmed the US economy is a step away from recession, as well as last night's Crude API inventory build which is once again pressuring WTI lower and on the verge of a 49 handle, and perhaps the biggest question is why are futures not much lower.
Greeks Laugh As Bankers Beg Depositors To Return Money
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2015 13:25 -0500President of Greek Banks Association Louka Katseli appealed at the citizens to return their money to the banks. “Banks are absolutely trustworthy,” Katseli told Mega TV, “Let’s all help our economy... If you take your money out of your chests and houses – which are not safe in any case – and deposit at banks, this will enhance liquidity.” Katseli’s appeal triggered laughter among Greeks with one exclaiming “Ah sure! Banks will never see my money again, I prefer to buy tonnes of peanuts with it.”
Greece Needs A €130 Billion Debt Haircut: Citi
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2015 11:49 -0500"The size of the required ‘upfront’ (i.e. to be introduced in 2016) principal haircut to be €110bn (60% of annual Greek nominal GDP in 2014). Note that we do not see much difference in an alternative scenario based on a ‘tranched’ principal haircut framework (of around €15bn per year), also starting in 2016. However, a ‘backloaded’ (i.e. to be introduced in 2022) approach relying on a single haircut would be more expensive, amounting to €130bn (72% of annual Greek nominal GDP in 2014)."
Commodity Rout Halted On Dollar Weakness, Equities Unchanged
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2015 05:53 -0500- Apple
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- Barrick Gold
- BOE
- Bond
- Borrowing Costs
- Capital Positions
- China
- Circuit Breakers
- Citigroup
- Copper
- Creditors
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- default
- Federal Reserve
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Greece
- Italy
- Jim Reid
- Monetary Policy
- Morgan Stanley
- NASDAQ
- Nikkei
- Portugal
- Precious Metals
- Reuters
- Shenzhen
- St Louis Fed
- St. Louis Fed
- Unemployment
- Verizon
If yesterday's market action was boring, today has been a virtual carbon copy which started with the usual early Chinese selloff levitating into a mildly positive close, with the SHCOMP closing just above the psychological 4,000 level: the next big hurdle will be 4058, the 38.2% Fib correction of the recent fall. In the US equity futures are currently unchanged ahead of a day in which there is no macro economic data but lots of corporate earnings led by Microsoft, Verizon, UTX and of course Apple. Most importantly, some modest USD weakness overnight (DXY -0.1%) has helped the commodity complex, with gold rebounding from overnight lows, while crude has at least stopped the recent carnage which sent WTI below $50.
Pay Attention Greece: Puerto Rico Refuses To Pay Creditors Before It Fully Funds Its Citizens' Needs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 18:49 -0500We hope the Greek government is watching and learning, and taking appropriate measures so that it too can, at least once, prioritize its own people's needs over those of a global banking oligarchy.
42 Billion Reasons Why Putin's Time May Be Running Out
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 18:30 -0500Russian municipal bond risk is surging once again (at 6-week highs) heading towards crisis-levels as Bloomberg reports numerous regions (including Chukotka - across from Alaska, Belgorod -near Ukraine, and three North Caucus republics) are prompting concerns as debt-to-revenue levels top 100% (144% in the case of Chukotka). The clock is ticking for President Vladimir Putin to defuse a situation he set off in 2012 with decrees to raise social spending. That contributed to a doubling in the debt load of Russia’s more than 80 regions to 2.4 trillion rubles ($42 billion) in the past five years and it all rolls within the next two to three years.
Why America's First National Supermarket Chain Just Filed For Bankruptcy, Again
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 16:55 -0500If the US economy is truly firing on all four cylinders, then how are events such as the repeat bankruptcy of America's first national supermarket chain, supposed to happen?
Frontrunning: July 20
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 06:26 -0500- Gold Plunges to Lowest Since 2010 (BBG)
- In Greek crisis, one big unhappy EU family (Reuters)
- Greek Banks Reopen Their Doors (WSJ)
- Greek reshuffle hints at autumn election (FT)
- Angela Merkel signals conditions for Greek debt talks (FT)
- Dollar hits three-month high on rate view, pans gold (Reuters)
- History Shows Iran Could Surprise the Oil Market (BBG)
- ‘Charlie Hebdo’ Will Cease Publishing Cartoons of Prophet Muhammad (Newsweek)
Futures Levitate After Greek Creditors Repay Themselves; Commodities Tumble To 13 Year Low
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2015 05:52 -0500- Apple
- Bank of England
- Bond
- Caijing
- China
- Conference Board
- Consumer Confidence
- Copper
- Creditors
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- default
- France
- Germany
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Greece
- headlines
- Hong Kong
- Housing Starts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Italy
- Japan
- Jim Reid
- Michigan
- Morgan Stanley
- NASDAQ
- Natural Gas
- New Home Sales
- Portugal
- Precious Metals
- Price Action
- Recession
- Shenzhen
- Ukraine
- University Of Michigan
- Verizon
- Volatility
Today's action is so far an exact replica of Friday's zero-volume ES overnight levitation higher (even if Europe's derivatives market, the EUREX exchange, did break at the open for good measure leading to a delayed market open just to make sure nobody sells) with the "catalyst" today being the official Greek repayment to both the ECB and the IMF which will use up €6.8 billion of the €7.2 billion bridge loan the EU just handed over Athens so it can immediately repay its creditors. In other words, Greek creditors including the ECB, just repaid themselves once again. One thing which is not "one-time" or "non-recurring" is the total collapse in commodities, which after last night's precious metals flash crash has sent the Bloomberg commodity complex to a 13 year low.
Governments Worldwide Will Crash the First Week of October … According to 2 Financial Forecasters
Submitted by George Washington on 07/19/2015 22:49 -0500Which Will Effect U.S. Stocks By ...
What's Scarce Geopolitically: Stability, Ways To Get Ahead, & Innovation
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/19/2015 15:00 -0500Conserving what is failing is not a path to stability.
Portugal’s Debts Are (Also) Unsustainable
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/19/2015 12:32 -0500Everyone seems to be focusing on Greece these days – a country so indebted that it needs even more loans to repay just a fraction of its gigantic credits. Clearly this is unsustainable and something has to give. Even the IMF agrees. But what about the other Southern European countries? Actually, Portugal’s financial situation is looking particularly shaky, and any hiccups could have serious cross-border repercussions from Madrid all the way to Berlin.
Next Week in the Context of the Big Picture
Submitted by Marc To Market on 07/19/2015 10:00 -0500- Abenomics
- Australia
- Bank of England
- BOE
- Capital Markets
- China
- Creditors
- default
- Federal Reserve
- fixed
- France
- Germany
- Greece
- Hong Kong
- Italy
- Japan
- Krugman
- Monetary Policy
- Monetization
- New Zealand
- non-performing loans
- Norges Bank
- Portugal
- Sovereign Default
- Swiss National Bank
- Volatility
- Wall Street Journal
- Yen
- Yuan
The divergence theme is not longer being eclipsed by the Greek drama and the Chinese stock market slide. See how this week's developments fit into the bigger picture.




