- China trade surprise gives stocks a lift (Reuters)
- JPMorgan profit hurt by drop in investment banking revenue (Reuters)
- About 40,000 Verizon workers launch strike (Reuters)
- Regulators Set to Reject Some Big Banks’ ‘Living Wills’ (WSJ)
- More Startups Are Getting Lower Valuations Than Joining the Billion-Dollar Club (BBG)
- Closures and court cases leave Turkey's media increasingly muzzled (Reuters)
With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catalyst to maintain the levitation. It got that courtesy of the return of USDJPY levitation, which has pushed the pair back above 109, the highest in over a week, as well as a boost in sentiment from the previously reported Chinese trade data where exports rose the most in over a year, however much of the bounce was due to a favorable base effect from last year's decline. Additionally, as RBC reported, the 116.5% y/y increase in China’s reported March imports from HK likely reflects the growing trend of "over-invoicing", which is merely another form of capital outflow.
"The catalyst for a balance sheet crisis is rarely the affordability of interest rates, so a 25bp rise in Fed rates is neither here nor there. Credit market risk is about assessing the likelihood of getting your money back. As such asset prices (i.e. equity markets) and asset price risk (i.e. equity volatility) are far bigger concerns. So all you need for a balance sheet crisis is declining equity markets, a phenomenon the Fed appears desperate to avoid. Now we know why."
Japan is at the forefront for Keynesian monetary madness. Now even ex-IMF officials are admitting it has entered the End Game
What in the World is Going on with Banks this Week? Emergency meetings, banker summits, crashing European banks.......Submitted by Bruno de Landevoisin on 04/12/2016 17:29 -0400
One week ago, we warned that "Valeant Lenders Demand Two Pounds Of Flesh For Covenant Waivers", a function of Valeant having virtually no leverage. Well, while Valeant proudly announced it had obtained a covenant waiver from its lenders late last week, it appears not everyone was onboard with the plan, and as a result moments ago Valeant stock crashed (below $30) after hours as major bond investor Centerbridge has notified the company that it intends to call a default event, presumably on annual report delays breaking covenants.
It's not just the shale drillers who are in danger as they see their liquidity evaporate. As the WSJ writes today, and as covered here since January, it is the lenders themselves whose unfunded revolver exposure may suddenly become funded and expose them to even greater risks from the energy sector should oil not rebound far more forcefully and put US oil and gas companies back in the black. How big is the exposure? Very big: $147 billion.
Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned. "One day the BoJ may well get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question - and keep rates at zero for a bit longer."
Something isn’t working. Not for Janet Yellen nor for any of her delusional central banker buddies around the world. Their tricks no longer work. They just make the tidal wave higher.
"We continue to live in a low default world for now though. Even though defaults picked up in 2015, B/BB default rates were still comfortably below their long-term average which they have been for well over a decade now with 2009 being the only exception. Indeed last year’s default rate for global Bs (up from 0.9% to 2.7%) was still lower than all of the first two decades of the modern era of leveraged finance up to 2003. So in spite of all the challenges we face this era has been characterized by astonishingly low default rates. There are clear signs the cycle is turning though, especially in the US."
- Italian Bank Stocks are Surging on the Back of Rescue Reports (WSJ)
- European Stocks Rise Led by Italian Banks; Emerging Markets Gain (BBG)
- Oil price dips on prospects for producers' meeting (Reuters)
- U.S. shale oil firms feel credit squeeze as banks grow cautious (Reuters)
- U.S. banks' dismal first quarter may spell trouble for 2016 (Reuters)
- Miserable Year for Banks: Stocks Suffer as Rates Stay Low (WSJ)
Despite risk assets enjoying a few weeks in the sun our failsafe recession indicator has stopped flashing amber and turned to red. Newly released US whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. Historically all recessions are effectively caused by slumps in business investment driven by a profits downturn.
We have noticed a sharp jump since mid-2015 in the total value of reported defaults of shadow banking products, defined here as non-bank-loan debt instruments that include bonds, trusts, and credit products offered by peer-to-peer (P2P) and various offline wealth management companies (WMCs).... The question is whether the government is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. We suspect that the answer is yes.
Crony capitalists, corrupt politicians, and Deep State hustlers paid good money for Yellen; she’ll do all she can to avoid letting them down. But something isn’t working. Not for her. Not for Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Not for the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Not for People’s Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan. Their tricks no longer work.