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Draghi Did Not Keep His Promise

"The threat to the euro is today greater than it was in 2012, and for that Draghi has completely failed. It comes not in Target II imbalances and Greek default penalties, but in political upheaval tied directly to what it is that Mario Draghi can’t seem to figure out. He can promise all he wants, but Europe’s fate will not be determined by his euro."

Howard Marks Sounds The Alarm On ETFs And Passive Investing, Again

"If funds ever flow out of equities and thus ETFs, what has been disproportionately bought will have to be disproportionately sold.  It’s not clear where index funds and ETFs will find buyers for their over-weighted, highly appreciated holdings if they have to sell in a crunch."

22 Troublesome Facts

Below are 22 troublesome facts explaining why the herd may, in fact, have it wrong.

Stone McCarthy: No More Hikes This Year, Debt Ceiling Can Derail Fed's Balance Sheet Plans

"We continue to expect that the FOMC will announce the change in reinvestment policy at the September meeting. However, this could be delayed if it looks like an increase to the debt limit is not immediately forthcoming, and with it the risks of the US default on its sovereign debt. Due to the disappointing inflation numbers, we do not look for another rate hike in 2017, and for only two in 2018."

What Trump's Venezuela Sanctions Will Do To Oil Prices: Barclays Explains

"A sharper and longer disruption could raise oil prices at least $5-7/b and flatten the curve structure despite an assumed return of some OPEC supply, a more robust US shale response, and weaker demand. It may be just the opportunity OPEC needs to exit its current strategy." - Barclays

What If The Debt Ceiling Turns Ugly: How To Trade A Fall Spike In Volatility

"We think volatility is unlikely to sustain these extreme lows in the fall and like selling Oct VIX puts as (i) seasonal patterns suggest the VIX troughs in Jul and peaks in Sep/Oct, (ii) the VIX has “settled” below 12 in only two of the past 27 Octobers, and (iii) fundamentally, the threat of debt ceiling brinkmanship in Sep/Oct, which has already spooked the T-bill market, should help support equity volatility."

One Hedge Fund CIO Is Shocked To Learn The Fed's Model Ignores "The Only Two Things That Matter"

“Wait, that’s not even part of your model?” asked the private sector, imagining itself in the presence of the Fed. “You seriously don’t even consider the crushing weight of the pension avalanche that is bearing down on us? You don’t even take into consideration what’s happening in China?” Silence. “Do you even understand today’s world? Pensions and China are the only two things that matter!" 

Congress’ Radical Plan To End Illegal Money

"Perhaps they may unwittingly do us all a favor and fail to raise the debt ceiling. Could the dopes in Congress hatch a more radical plan to put an end to the government’s illegal money? Only by accident..."