• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

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Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese State Firms' Debt Hits New All Time High, As Profits Tumble





As SOE profits continue to deteriorate at the expense of maximizing jobs and employment (recall the biggest threat facing China is a working class insurrection, or simply said, "lower and middle-class revolution") debt at these same SOEs just hit a new record high: according to the same FinMin numbers, total SOE debt rose by CNY393 billion to CNY78.3 trillion, or over $12 trillion - well above 100% of total Chinese GDP.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Bankruptcies Hit Highest Level Since Crisis And There's "More To Come", Fed Warns





"Oil and gas sector bankruptcies have reached quarterly levels last seen in the Great Recession. At least nine U.S. oil and gas companies, accounting for more than $2 billion in debt, have filed for bankruptcy so far in the fourth quarter."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Ukraine's Looming "19 Fukushimas" Scenario





With all the action in Syria, the Ukraine is no longer a subject for discussion in the West. In Russia, where the Ukraine is still a major problem looming on the horizon, and where some 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees are settling in, with no intentions of going back to what's left of the Ukraine, it is still actively discussed. But for the US, and for the EU, it is now yet another major foreign policy embarrassment, and the less said about it the better. In the meantime, the Ukraine is in full-blown collapse - all five glorious stages of it - setting the stage for a Ukrainian Nightmare Before Christmas, or shortly after.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Trade Wars Begin: U.S. Imposes 256% Tarriff On Chinese Steel Imports





There is one thing that could dramatically slow down China's metal exports - tariffs, anti-dumping duties and other forms of protectionism.  “What may slow down the exports is anti-dumping and protectionist measures that several countries have taken against cheap imports,” said Ernst & Young’s Agrawal. In other words, a trade war... which is precisely what the U.S. just launched by hiking tariffs on Chinese steel imports by a whopping 256%.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"To Make The Payment Is Almost Impossible": Puerto Rico Defaults (Again) In T-Minus 9 Days





"To make a total payment will be almost impossible. If a partial payment is made: what bonds should we pay? It is an assessment that is being done. It is highly unlikely that there will not be default, in whole or partially."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Economists Confirm Financial Aid Is Inflating Student Loan Bubble





A paper recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research confirms that a large percentage of the increase in college tuition can be explained by increases in the amount of available financial aid: "Essentially, [financial aid] lead to higher college costs and more debt, and in the absence of higher labor market returns, more loan default inevitably occurs."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Executive Who Was Once Kidnapped By Angry Investors Disappears





Back in August, angry investors captured Shan Jiuliang, the head of Fanya Metals Exchange, in a daring predawn raid on a luxury hotel in Shanghai. The citizen's arrest came after Fanya stopped making payments on WMPs it issued. Now, it appears as though Shan has been captured again - only this time, it's not clear whether he'll be coming back.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Increasingly Durable Correlations





There are a few correlations that we find particularly compelling...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

At 108 US Colleges, More Than Half Of Students Haven't Paid Even $1 On Their Student Loans





At 108 four-year colleges, at least half of all students hadn’t paid even $1 of what they owe within three years of leaving college. Those colleges got more than $10 billion in federal student loans and grants last year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Slammed By Redemption Requests, These Hedge Funds Raise "Gates" To Avoid Firesale Liquidations





Needless to say, these names are just the beginning: once the redemptions - and gating - genie is out of the bottle, there is no putting it back.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Grey Swans Rising - All 6 Of Goldman's Global Risk Indices Are Worsening





Despite every effort by The Fed to convince the world that everything is awesome, it's not. From China growth risks to concerns about tightening financial conditions, Goldman warns so-called 'grey swan' fears are rising with Brexit, Trumpe elected, widening terrorist threats, and increased protectionism the most impactful.

 
rcwhalen's picture

Feldkamp: The Macroeconomics of Crises and Fraud





Financial fraud is any method by which deception or duplicity induces those with money to "invest" in a scheme...   

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Broke Puerto Rico Pays Out $120 Million In Christmas Bonuses





Puerto Rico may be teetering on the verge of default but that doesn't mean public sector employees won't be going home with some extra cash for the holidays. Ten days before $1 billion in interest payments come due and two weeks after resorting to an absurd revenue clawback end-around to make a $354 million payment, the commonwealth just paid out $120 million in bonuses.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Great Disconnect Is Palpable





Taken together with the rather steep drop in US industrial production, the risks of a full-blown and perhaps severe recession have undoubtedly grown. Unlike what the FOMC is trying to project via the federal funds rate, a rate that isn’t being fully complemented, either, at this point, visible economic risk is not just rising it is exploding.

 
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