Contango

As Oil Heads For Down-Week, Crude Stakes Are Huge

After five straight weeks higher - read by many as confirmation of how awesome the global coordinated recovery must be - WTI and Brent dropped this week as inventories rose, demand outlooks dimmed, and OPEC hope faded. Right now, there is a titanic struggle going on right now in the oil market.

Oil Tanker Logjam Grows To 54 Ships As Gulf Ports Remain Closed

54 tankers with capacity more than 33 million barrels either to deliver imported crude from Latin America, Europe, Caribbean, Africa and Middle East or receive U.S. supplies are drifting off U.S. Gulf Coast as several key ports remain closed while others are open with restrictions.

The Single Biggest Bullish Catalyst For Oil

One of the key objectives for OPEC is to bring down inventories, a goal that has been elusive this year. But if the oil futures curve is anything to go by, the oil market is showing signs of tightening.

Frontrunning: August 17

  • Trump policy doubts, weak inflation to weigh on Wall Street (Reuters)
  • Trump Remarks on Violent Rally Rattle Aides, Risk Agenda (WSJ)
  • Trump blasts Republican senators over Charlottesville criticism (Reuters)
  • Trump's crisis spurs talk of White House departures (Reuters)
  • Apple denounces neo-Nazis as Spotify bans ‘white power’ tracks (Guardian)

US Crude Production At Cycle Highs As Rig Count Stabilizes; Desperate Saudis Jawbone Deeper Cuts To Come

A tough week for crude oil, which tumbled after algos tagged $50 stops yesterday following the biggest gasoline inventory build in 7 months. While the US oil rig count has stopped rising in the last few weeks, production continues to hit cycle highs stalling prices, but the Saudis are not giving up on their incessant jawboning - hinting that "deeper cuts" are still on the table.

"Oil God" Andy Hall Blows Up, Closes Main Astenbeck Hedge Fund

Two years ago, we wondered how long the biggest oil permabull, Andy Hall, would last in an environment where oil prices refused to go up. Turns out the answer was about 2 and a half years, because moments ago, Bloomberg reported that Hall is shuttering his main Astenbeck hedge fund.

The "Wipeout Scenario": 250% Losses If VIX Spikes To 20

if VIX goes from 9.60 to 18/20 in absolute values (it was approx. 40 as recently as Aug2015), and stays there for 8 / 10 days in backwardation, VIX-based ETFs may stand to lose up to 55%. Short positions on long-vol ETFs can then lose up to 250% of capital with VIX at 20.

Gartman Covers Oil Short

"we are going to move to the sidelines in crude oil, covering our short position upon receipt of this commentary and standing aside. In retrospect, we should have covered last week amidst what was then panic liquidation, but we follow our rules regarding the changing nature of the contango and shall make the change today."

Gartman: "The Time Has Come To Be Short Of Oil Once Again"

"The time then has come to be short of crude oil once again, and we are certain that we shall be at least as equally scoffed at for selling crude today as we were two weeks ago for urging everyone, everywhere not to be short."