Contango

Not Even An OPEC Deal Will Stop Oil Going Lower, Goldman Warns

Continuing to pile on the bearish oil case, Goldman warns today that not even an OPEC deal would stop oil going lower, adding that "we remain sceptical of its impact. For one, our production forecast continues to reflect a seasonal Saudi production decline into year-end, with no growth elsewhere. Second, even with this OPEC help, our updated oil supply-demand forecast now points to a renewed build in inventories in 4Q 2016 vs. a forecast for a draw only last month.

Goldman Cuts Oil Price Target From $50 To $43 On Rising Global Surplus

While we await every new headline out of Algiers, overnight Goldman threw in the towel on its "transitory" oil market bullishness, and in a note by Damien Courvalin looking "Beyond Algiers, Weakening Oil Fundamentals", the bank cut its Q4 oil price target from $50 to $43, as the bank admits the previously anticipated rebalancing will take longer to achieve, and now expects "a global surplus of 400 kb/d in 4Q16 vs. a 300 kb/d draw previously."

Options Traders Have Never Been More Bullish

With speculative positioning in VIX futures at record shorts (most bullish), and speculative longs in Dow and Nasdaq at or near record highs, we have one more "most hated rally" statistic to add to the pile of exuberance. The open interest in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) call options has never been higher as the last few days panic-buying leveraged long positions lifted exposure above summer 2011 highs...

Something's Brewing In VIX

For the last 22 minutes, VIX has not moved and S&P has coiled extremely tightly... with record short VIX positioning and record long US equities positioning, one wonders what happens next? (Especially given The Fed's hawkish jawboning).

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks: Here's Why

Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson confirmed overnight that he isn't going to change his bearish oil call any time soon, with a warning that "very little has been addressed fundamentally to correct these problems. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we would argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation." Putting a number to his call: oil will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Oil Surge Continues As Short Squeeze Accelerates

Despite a significant build at Cushing (Genscape +300k), tumbling China demand, and Libyan supply, the ever more financialized crude oil market is aoneway street higher of short-squeezing exuberance. As 2015's August explosion plays out again, WTI Crude just broke back over $43 as record shorts suffer...

Deja-Vu(lnerable): Oil Spikes 6% On Contango-Crush As "Violent Reversal" Higher Looms

WTI Crude is up over 6% in 24 hours, since yesterday's surprise build (and production cut) as the machines squeeze out an over-exuberant short positioning once again. However, just as we saw last year around this time, Astenbach's infamous oil veteran Andy Hall is warning a "violent reversal higher" looms again amid extreme positioning and potentially improving fundamentals. Exaggerating the move further is the surge in the contango which has once again made sea-storage profitable, sending yield-seeking traders into the carry trade (and squeezing shorts further).

A "1 In 10,000 Year Event": JPM Head Quant Explains Why The S&P Refuses To Sell Off

"... one would expect this scenario to happen once every ~10,000 years. The fact that we see this type of behavior demonstrates market inefficiency—in this case driven by hedging of option exposure. Quite literally, the market was pinned. Over the past 3 weeks, the amount of call options exceeding put options (in terms of gamma exposure) averaged almost $40bn (per 1%), which is the largest call to put gamma imbalance ever observed."

Peak Oil 'Demand' & The Duelling Narratives Of Energy Inventories

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have fallen 23.9 million barrels since the end of April, but, as Bloomberg notes, oil bulls counting on further declines are fighting history. Over the past five years refiners' crude demand has fallen an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from the peak in July to the low in October... "The rough part will be once refineries start going into maintenance,... we aren’t drawing down inventories very fast and the pressure on prices will increase."

Oil Surges After Gartman Exits Crude Long

"this aggressive “bidding” is sufficient to cause us to abandon our modest, one unit long positions in crude immediately upon receipt of this commentary. Being wrong is part of the business we are in; remaining wrong is anathema and the market is about to tell us that we are very, very wrong."