"These malls are dying, and we see very limited prospect of a turnaround in performance" according to a January report from Alder Hill, which began shorting the securities. "We expect 2017 to be a tipping point." Indeed, cracks have appeared: prices on the BBB- pool of CMBS have tumbled from 96 cents on the dollar in late January to 87 cents last week
Although the market is convinced the Federal Reserve will get aggressive with their rate hikes, I am not sure market participants have thought this through. Let’s not forget the Federal Reserve is sitting on the largest balance sheet in history.
"...although it might be fashionable to claim equities are in a bubble, be aware this “bubble” is completely different. It is not driven by speculation, but instead might be the most gigantic short squeeze of all time."
Debt in China has increased dramatically in recent years, accounting for roughly one-half of all new credit created globally since 2005. The country’s share of total global credit is nearly 25%, up from 5% ten years ago.
"It’s like the Federal Reserve is Wayne Gretzky’s poorly coordinated older brother. Instead of skating to where the puck is going, the Fed can’t even skate to where the puck is, and is instead busy skating to where it has been."
The mainstream media has been carefully crafting the propaganda meme that the Trump administration is inheriting a global economy in “ascension,” when in fact, the opposite is true. Trump enters office at a time of longstanding decline and will likely witness severe and accelerated decline over the course of the next year. The signs are already present, and this fits exactly with the basis for my prediction of the Trump election win - conservative movements are indeed being set up as scapegoats for a global economic crisis that international financiers actually created.
President Trump’s initial emphasis on renewing the US manufacturing base is largely symbolic. Even if his administration were to successfully use tax incentives, protectionist measures and immigration policies to re-patriate factories and labor, and even if government were to spend big on fiscal stimulus, it still would not solve the structural leverage problem facing the US economy.
As a result of continued market underperformance, assets under management at Jeremy Grantham's iconic GMO have tumbled to about $80 billion, down from a peak of $124 billion in June 2014, a drop of 35% in two and a half years.
A very large percentage of the American public (including myself), remain irate at the complete lack of any justice served with regard to finance criminals in the aftermath of the economic collapse of 2008/09. When it comes to greedy, unethical behavior in the wake of that tragic period, Steve Mnuchin is in a class of his own. To appoint such a toxic financial oligarch to Treasury Secretary is a serious slap in the face to all American citizens.
It's official. As previewed earlier this morning, when we reported that according to media reports, Sullivan & Cromwell lawyer Jay Clayton, a long-time favorite of Wall Street and especially Goldman Sachs, has been nominated to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Donald Trump is preparing to appoint another Wall Street proxy to the top Wall Street regulation, supervision and enforcement post. According to the WSJ, Wall Street M&A and IPO lawyer, Jay Clayton, is Trump's leading candidate to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and could be announced as the nominee as soon as Wednesday.
Cognitive dissonance is a powerful drug. It makes otherwise-very-intelligent people goofy and incoherent in their thinking and blinds them to certain realities that they should normally see right in front of their noses. You’ll hear hundreds of theories and rationalizations on Trump’s miraculous victory, but a reason you will almost never hear is also the most likely one: Trump won the election because he serves the interests of the establishment.