Futures are currently unchanged, but the E-mini was down as much as 12 points less than two hours earlier after the European open when this time it was up to the PBOC to intervene in global markets by pushing the Yuan higher (selling USDCNY via intermediary banks) sending global stocks sharply higher off session lows and leaving the S&P futures virtually unchanged. As Bloomberg reported, there has been increasing USD/CNY selling in afternoon session as Dollar Index edged lower. This is the PBOC entering the building and levitating stocks.
In recent days, we have observed a distinct trading pattern: a ramp early in the US morning, usually triggered by some aggressive momentum ignition, such as today's unexplained pump then dump in the EURUSD with stocks rising after the European open, rising throughout the US open, then peaking around the time the US closed at which point it is all downhill for the illiquid market. So far today, the pattern has held, and after trading flat for most of the overnight session, with Europe initially in the red perhaps on disappointment about the Italy bank bailout fund, a bout of early Europe-open associated buying pushed US futures up, following the first rebound in the USDJPY after 7 days of declines which also helped the Nikkei close 1.1% higher.
Don't look now, but the chickens may be coming home to roost in subprime auto, a space we've been warning on for years. As lenders continue to lower their underwriting standards in order to feed Wall Street's securitization machine, more and more dodgy loans have found their way into ABS collateral pools. Now, the delinquencies are piling up.
From abysmal PMI data to slumping freight volumes to collapsing Class 8 truck orders, the writing is on the wall: the US is headed for a recession. And while we would argue that if it weren't for goalseeked data, the numbers would already show that the entire economy is contracting, at least four states are already in an official downturn.
After a series of stunning declines through the month of January and the first half of February, global financial markets seem to have found a patch of relative stability at least for the moment. But that does not mean that the crisis is over. On the contrary, all of the hard economic numbers that are coming in from around the world tell us that the global economy is coming apart at the seams.
- Futures rise as oil gains hold steady (Reuters)
- China promises economic stability as G20, parliament loom (Reuters)
- Obama scolds Senate Republicans for Supreme Court threat (Reuters)
- China Deploys Missiles on Disputed South China Sea Island (WSJ)
- China Ramps Up Rhetoric, Plans New Steps to Juice Up Economy (BBG)
- China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)
If you were looking for signs that US trade may be collapsing on itself, a good place to start would be Class 8 truck orders which, as we first documented in early December, have posted sharp y/y declines of late. Now, slowing demand for heavy vehicles is hitting home in North Carolina, where Daimler has laid off more than 2,000 people in the past two months alone.
After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.
- Stock futures little changed as Yellen comments awaited (Reuters)
- Draghi stimulus hint underpins stocks, knocks euro (Reuters)
- Black Friday's Losing Its Mojo and Retailers Might Be Relieved (BBG)
- Macy’s Fights Downward Spiral With Bet on Off-Price Backstage Stores (WSJ)
- Greece Comes to a Standstill as Unions Turn Against Tsipras (BBG)
- Euro zone production falls more than expected in September (Reuters)
- Valeant played a key role in building, operating Philidor RX (Reuters)
Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.
Volkswagen Tumbles Again As Emissions Scandal Deepens, Gasoline Engines Dragged In: Wall Street's ReactionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2015 08:09 -0400
"VW is leaving us all speechless."
“This can get pretty ugly.”
In a "world of disappointments", where beta is king and where alpha has become a joke (or, now that equity is a risk-free asset and debt is risky, is outright punished) where growth no longer exists, drowning under the weight of $200 trillion in debt, and where value strategies have been all but forgotten replaced instead with "stories" about companies that have no cash flows but just might be "the next big thing" (one day), what should one to do? Why, engage in the most idiotic of strategies: chase momentum.
Yesterday morning, when previewing the day's tumultuous events, we said that "Futures Are Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD." And boy did Draghi give a green light, that and then some, when his press conference unleashed one of the biggest one-day US equity rallies in 2015. This morning it has been more of the same, with global market momentum on the heels of Draghi's confirmation that Europe's economy is again backsliding (it's a good thing, if only for stocks), leading to momentum for US equity futures, which together with soaring tech/cloud, earnings if no other, are on their way to take out recent all time highs.
After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.
It is a generally quiet week on the economic front, with updates mostly on the housing front where following today's euphoric NAHB Housing Market Index, we have housing start and permits, blaims and existing home sales. Elsewhere, Fed speakers continue to speak, with Lacker, Dudley (again) and Powell confusing traders once more. The big news this week is earnings as some of the most prominent companies report, including IBM, Verizon, GM, Ebay, Coke, Boeing, Amazin, AT&T, CAT, Microsoft and P&G.