Daimler

Frontrunning: July 26

  • Priest killed in French church before police shoot dead hostage-takers (Reuters)
  • On raucous opening night, Democratic stars make a pitch for Clinton (Reuters)
  • Sanders Backs Clinton After Fractious Opening of Convention (BBG)
  • Some in Sanders' army seem determined to march on without him (Reuters)
  • Yen hits two-week high as Japanese stimulus expectations dialled back (Reuters)

So What Did The ECB Buy? "In Short, Almost Everything"

"So what did they buy? In short, almost everything. The ECB bought “topical” credits such as VW, Glencore and EdF. They showed little concern with taking credit risk by buying a range of low-BBB names. They bought “high yield” credits such as Telecom Italia and Lufthansa. They bought corporate bonds from US, UK and Swiss companies, and ironically, the ECB’s most popular purchase has been Deutsche Bahn – an issuer where bond yields are the most negative."

Frontrunning: July 19

  • Turkey's Erdogan recounts night of coup, mulls death penalty (AP)
  • Dissidents Silenced, GOP Convention Turns Attacks on Clinton (WSJ)
  • U.S. police deaths build momentum for law to treat attacks as hate crimes (Reuters)
  • Police across US patrolling in pairs after ambush attacks (AP)
  • UK will not invoke EU Article 50 this year, government lawyer says (Reuters)

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

Greater Fools Have Stormed The Casino

Since last Friday’s phony jobs report the casino has become so unhinged that analysis is beside the point. It is not surprising at all that the robo-machines are now gunning for the 2200 point on the S&P 500 charts. That’s what they do. What defies explanation, however, is that the several dozen humans left on Wall Street who apparently talk to Bob Pisani are actually attempting to rationalize this “breakout” of, well, madness.

Why JPM Now Thinks The S&P 500 Is Promptly Headed For 2,200

More of the same for this market. The 17x/$130 argument continues to resonate (that combination of numbers points to 2200). It’s still very, very early in the CQ2 season but the indications so are more positive than negative (AA, Daimler, PEP, Samsung, SIMO, STX, WDC, etc) and that is helping investors look past the earnings recession and is bolstering confidence in a ~$130 number for next year.

Global Stocks Surge On Rising Hopes Of Japan "Helicopter Money"

A quick headline search for the phrases "Japan stimulus" and "helicopter money" is all one needs to understand the very familiar reason for today latest overnight global stock rally, which has sent the USDJPY surging some more, in the process pushing the Nikkei higher by 2.5%, China up over 1% (with the help of some late FX intervention by the PBOC), European stocks up 1%, US equity futures up 0.5%, and so on, in what is a global wave of green on the back of the helicopter money which after Bernanke's visit to Japan, market participants are now convinced is just a matter of time.

Frontrunning: July 6

  • For Hillary Clinton, Political Fight Over Emails Is Far From Over (WSJ)
  • More "Extreme carelessness" - Iraq inquiry slams Blair over legal basis for war (Reuters)
  • FBI Director Rebukes State Department Over Security Practices (WSJ)
  • Gold Climbs to Two-Year High as UBS Sees Start of New Bull Run (BBG)
  • Stocks and bond yields sink as growth fears set in (Reuters)

Days After Apple Invests In China's Didi, Toyota Invests In Uber To Boost Car Leasing

Less than two weeks after Apple unveiledan unexpected $1 billion investment in China's Didi Chuxing, an amount some have speculated may be the cost of continuing "business as usual" for Apple's service offerings in China, moments ago Toyota unveiled that it would inject an undisclosed amount of funds in one of the most valuable private "Decacorns" in the US, Uber.

Futures Rebound Off Lows Following Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ

Futures are currently unchanged, but the E-mini was down as much as 12 points less than two hours earlier after the European open when this time it was up to the PBOC to intervene in global markets by pushing the Yuan higher (selling USDCNY via intermediary banks) sending global stocks sharply higher off session lows and leaving the S&P futures virtually unchanged. As Bloomberg reported, there has been increasing USD/CNY selling in afternoon session as Dollar Index edged lower. This is the PBOC entering the building and levitating stocks.

Futures Rebound On Weaker Yen; Oil Hits 2016 Highs

In recent days, we have observed a distinct trading pattern: a ramp early in the US morning, usually triggered by some aggressive momentum ignition, such as today's unexplained pump then dump in the EURUSD with stocks rising after the European open, rising throughout the US open, then peaking around the time the US closed at which point it is all downhill for the illiquid market. So far today, the pattern has held, and after trading flat for most of the overnight session, with Europe initially in the red perhaps on disappointment about the Italy bank bailout fund, a bout of early Europe-open associated buying pushed US futures up, following the first rebound in the USDJPY after 7 days of declines which also helped the Nikkei close 1.1% higher.

For These Four States, The Recession Has Arrived

From abysmal PMI data to slumping freight volumes to collapsing Class 8 truck orders, the writing is on the wall: the US is headed for a recession. And while we would argue that if it weren't for goalseeked data, the numbers would already show that the entire economy is contracting, at least four states are already in an official downturn.