Daimler

21 New Numbers That Show That The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding

After a series of stunning declines through the month of January and the first half of February, global financial markets seem to have found a patch of relative stability at least for the moment. But that does not mean that the crisis is over. On the contrary, all of the hard economic numbers that are coming in from around the world tell us that the global economy is coming apart at the seams.

Frontrunning: February 17

  • Futures rise as oil gains hold steady (Reuters)
  • China promises economic stability as G20, parliament loom (Reuters)
  • Obama scolds Senate Republicans for Supreme Court threat (Reuters)
  • China Deploys Missiles on Disputed South China Sea Island (WSJ)
  • China Ramps Up Rhetoric, Plans New Steps to Juice Up Economy (BBG)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)

"Truck-ocalypse" Hits Main Street As Daimler Fires 1,250 Amid Collapsing Demand

If you were looking for signs that US trade may be collapsing on itself, a good place to start would be Class 8 truck orders which, as we first documented in early December, have posted sharp y/y declines of late. Now, slowing demand for heavy vehicles is hitting home in North Carolina, where Daimler has laid off more than 2,000 people in the past two months alone.

Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles

After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.

Frontrunning: November 12

  • Stock futures little changed as Yellen comments awaited (Reuters)
  • Draghi stimulus hint underpins stocks, knocks euro (Reuters)
  • Black Friday's Losing Its Mojo and Retailers Might Be Relieved (BBG)
  • Macy’s Fights Downward Spiral With Bet on Off-Price Backstage Stores (WSJ)
  • Greece Comes to a Standstill as Unions Turn Against Tsipras (BBG)
  • Euro zone production falls more than expected in September (Reuters)
  • Valeant played a key role in building, operating Philidor RX (Reuters)

Emerging Markets Slide On Strong Dollar; China Surges On Bad Data, IPOs; Futures Falter

Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.

MOMO Rules: In A "World Of Disappointments" Trade Like An Idiot, Citi Recommends

In a "world of disappointments", where beta is king and where alpha has become a joke (or, now that equity is a risk-free asset and debt is risky, is outright punished) where growth no longer exists, drowning under the weight of $200 trillion in debt, and where value strategies have been all but forgotten replaced instead with "stories" about companies that have no cash flows but just might be "the next big thing" (one day), what should one to do? Why, engage in the most idiotic of strategies: chase momentum.

Futures Continue Surge On Global Draghi Euphoria, Tech Earnings

Yesterday morning, when previewing the day's tumultuous events, we said that "Futures Are Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD." And boy did Draghi give a green light, that and then some, when his press conference unleashed one of the biggest one-day US equity rallies in 2015. This morning it has been more of the same, with global market momentum on the heels of Draghi's confirmation that Europe's economy is again backsliding (it's a good thing, if only for stocks), leading to momentum for US equity futures, which together with soaring tech/cloud, earnings if no other, are on their way to take out recent all time highs.

 

Futures Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD

After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Little Macro, Lots Of Micro

It is a generally quiet week on the economic front, with updates mostly on the housing front where following today's euphoric NAHB Housing Market Index, we have housing start and permits, blaims and existing home sales. Elsewhere, Fed speakers continue to speak, with Lacker, Dudley (again) and Powell confusing traders once more. The big news this week is earnings as some of the most prominent companies report, including IBM, Verizon, GM, Ebay, Coke, Boeing, Amazin, AT&T, CAT, Microsoft and P&G.

Volkswagen: A Decade Of Deception - Full Chronology

The scandal swirling around Germany's largest listed company had its beginnings in an attempt to crack the U.S. market, the missing link in VW's global footprint. But, as Handelsblatt details, what began as expansion ended in deception (piecing together the events that led up to the scandal, based on the facts as they are currently known).

Stocks Tumble As Emissions Scandal Spreads To BMW; NOK Plunges On Unexpected Norway Rate Cut

European equity have been weighed on by BMW after reports in German press that the Co.'s emission tests for their X3 model could show worse results than that of the Volkswagen Passat. The Norwegian and Taiwanese central banks have both cut interest rates, taking the number of central banks to cut rates this year to 40. Today's highlights include US weekly jobs data and durable goods orders as well as comments from ECB's Praet and Fed's Yellen. Of note US data, including jobless claims, durables and home sales will be delayed today & not released to newswires 1st due to Pope's visit