Daimler

Why JPM Now Thinks The S&P 500 Is Promptly Headed For 2,200

More of the same for this market. The 17x/$130 argument continues to resonate (that combination of numbers points to 2200). It’s still very, very early in the CQ2 season but the indications so are more positive than negative (AA, Daimler, PEP, Samsung, SIMO, STX, WDC, etc) and that is helping investors look past the earnings recession and is bolstering confidence in a ~$130 number for next year.

Global Stocks Surge On Rising Hopes Of Japan "Helicopter Money"

A quick headline search for the phrases "Japan stimulus" and "helicopter money" is all one needs to understand the very familiar reason for today latest overnight global stock rally, which has sent the USDJPY surging some more, in the process pushing the Nikkei higher by 2.5%, China up over 1% (with the help of some late FX intervention by the PBOC), European stocks up 1%, US equity futures up 0.5%, and so on, in what is a global wave of green on the back of the helicopter money which after Bernanke's visit to Japan, market participants are now convinced is just a matter of time.

Frontrunning: July 6

  • For Hillary Clinton, Political Fight Over Emails Is Far From Over (WSJ)
  • More "Extreme carelessness" - Iraq inquiry slams Blair over legal basis for war (Reuters)
  • FBI Director Rebukes State Department Over Security Practices (WSJ)
  • Gold Climbs to Two-Year High as UBS Sees Start of New Bull Run (BBG)
  • Stocks and bond yields sink as growth fears set in (Reuters)

Days After Apple Invests In China's Didi, Toyota Invests In Uber To Boost Car Leasing

Less than two weeks after Apple unveiledan unexpected $1 billion investment in China's Didi Chuxing, an amount some have speculated may be the cost of continuing "business as usual" for Apple's service offerings in China, moments ago Toyota unveiled that it would inject an undisclosed amount of funds in one of the most valuable private "Decacorns" in the US, Uber.

Futures Rebound Off Lows Following Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ

Futures are currently unchanged, but the E-mini was down as much as 12 points less than two hours earlier after the European open when this time it was up to the PBOC to intervene in global markets by pushing the Yuan higher (selling USDCNY via intermediary banks) sending global stocks sharply higher off session lows and leaving the S&P futures virtually unchanged. As Bloomberg reported, there has been increasing USD/CNY selling in afternoon session as Dollar Index edged lower. This is the PBOC entering the building and levitating stocks.

Futures Rebound On Weaker Yen; Oil Hits 2016 Highs

In recent days, we have observed a distinct trading pattern: a ramp early in the US morning, usually triggered by some aggressive momentum ignition, such as today's unexplained pump then dump in the EURUSD with stocks rising after the European open, rising throughout the US open, then peaking around the time the US closed at which point it is all downhill for the illiquid market. So far today, the pattern has held, and after trading flat for most of the overnight session, with Europe initially in the red perhaps on disappointment about the Italy bank bailout fund, a bout of early Europe-open associated buying pushed US futures up, following the first rebound in the USDJPY after 7 days of declines which also helped the Nikkei close 1.1% higher.

For These Four States, The Recession Has Arrived

From abysmal PMI data to slumping freight volumes to collapsing Class 8 truck orders, the writing is on the wall: the US is headed for a recession. And while we would argue that if it weren't for goalseeked data, the numbers would already show that the entire economy is contracting, at least four states are already in an official downturn.

21 New Numbers That Show That The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding

After a series of stunning declines through the month of January and the first half of February, global financial markets seem to have found a patch of relative stability at least for the moment. But that does not mean that the crisis is over. On the contrary, all of the hard economic numbers that are coming in from around the world tell us that the global economy is coming apart at the seams.

Frontrunning: February 17

  • Futures rise as oil gains hold steady (Reuters)
  • China promises economic stability as G20, parliament loom (Reuters)
  • Obama scolds Senate Republicans for Supreme Court threat (Reuters)
  • China Deploys Missiles on Disputed South China Sea Island (WSJ)
  • China Ramps Up Rhetoric, Plans New Steps to Juice Up Economy (BBG)
  • China Loses Control of the Economic Story Line (WSJ)

"Truck-ocalypse" Hits Main Street As Daimler Fires 1,250 Amid Collapsing Demand

If you were looking for signs that US trade may be collapsing on itself, a good place to start would be Class 8 truck orders which, as we first documented in early December, have posted sharp y/y declines of late. Now, slowing demand for heavy vehicles is hitting home in North Carolina, where Daimler has laid off more than 2,000 people in the past two months alone.

Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles

After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.

Frontrunning: November 12

  • Stock futures little changed as Yellen comments awaited (Reuters)
  • Draghi stimulus hint underpins stocks, knocks euro (Reuters)
  • Black Friday's Losing Its Mojo and Retailers Might Be Relieved (BBG)
  • Macy’s Fights Downward Spiral With Bet on Off-Price Backstage Stores (WSJ)
  • Greece Comes to a Standstill as Unions Turn Against Tsipras (BBG)
  • Euro zone production falls more than expected in September (Reuters)
  • Valeant played a key role in building, operating Philidor RX (Reuters)

Emerging Markets Slide On Strong Dollar; China Surges On Bad Data, IPOs; Futures Falter

Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.