Dallas Fed

Global Stock Rally Halted In Aftermath Of Latest French Terror Attack

The tremendous rally of the past 4 days that has sent global stocks soaring in recent days has finally been capped and European shares, S&P futures are all modestly lower following a deadly terror attack in Nice, France. Meanwhile Asian stocks rose as Chinese economic data beat estimates, with Q2 GDP rising by 0.1% more than the estimated 6.6% on the back of stronger housing data.

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher As More Details Emerge About Japan's "Helicopter Money"

The global meltup continues with the S&P set to open at new all time highs, some 20 points higher from yesterday's close, however the driver for the latest rally is not so much the imminent BOE announcement which is expected to cut rates by 25 bps from 0.50%, but a dramatic surge in the USDJPY just after 1am Eastern when Bloomberg revealed more details about Ben Bernanke's masterplan for Japan's helicopter money.

Global Stocks Rebound, US Futures Jump On Expectation Of "Coordinated Intervention By Central Banks"

After a historic two-day selloff, which as shown yesterday slammed European banks by the most on record the wildly oversold conditions, coupled with hopes for yet another global, coordinated central bank intervention, coupled with modest hope that David Cameron's trip to Brussels today may resolve some of the Article 50 gridlock, have been sufficient to prompt a modest buying scramble among European stocks in early trading, with the pound and commodities all gaining for the first time since the shock Brexit vote.

These Three Survey Responses Explain Everything That Is Wrong With The US Economy

"The economy is nervous, shaky and uncertain. Fed policy has us locked into a lethargic and tenuous position. It appears the Fed doesn’t know how to get off the horse it created. The Fed talks interest rate increases but looks for every reason not to do it. Until the Fed backs out of trying to manage the economy, we will be stuck on the cusp of slow growth and a recession."

"This Is A Recession" - Dallas Fed Workweek Hits 7-Year Low

The Dallas Fed Business Outlook has now been in contraction for 18 straight months. The underlying components are mixed but the average workweek has collapsed back to its lowest since Nov 2009. As one respondent noted, "This is a recession... Fed policy has us locked into a lethargic and tenuous position... We cannot have millions of people out of the workforce and be healthy economically - they are a burden not a benefit."

Key Events In The Coming Week: All About Brexit

With global markets gyrating on every piece of news surrounding the Brexit drama, what’s the timetable for UK-related (and all other macro) events this week and beyond?

European Stocks, US Futures Extend Slide On UK Chaos, Pound Carnage

With global asset correlations once again approaching 1, overnight stocks have been trading in broadly "risk off" mode, following every twist of pound sterling and the rapidly deteriorating British financial situation as "chaos infects" virtually all markets, from China, to European banks, to US equity futures.  As a result of ongoing aftershocks from the Brexit vote, coupled with the sudden political chaos in UK politics, where both parties now seem in disarray, with the pound has extended its selloff to a fresh 31-year low dropping below the Friday lows while European equities are dropping to levels last seen in February.

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

Today's NFP report will be under intense scrutiny as it is the final jobs report before the June rate decision by the FOMC. The market has increased the probability of a hike at the June meeting significantly in recent weeks and a strong labour market will be critical to allow the Fed to proceed with a June or July "normalization."

July Rate Hike Odds Rise As Beige Book Signals "Tight Job Market", "Modest Growth"

The Beige Book offered its ubiquitous modest, moderate, mummified growth outlook but added a few points that provide The Fed more ammo for hiking rates: Employment grew modestly since the last report, but tight labor markets were widely noted; wages grew modestly, and price pressure grew slightly in most Districts. The reaction was a further rise in July rate-hike odds (and easing of June and September).

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

Dallas Fed Tumbles (Again) - 17th Consecutive Month Of Contraction

This is the 17th month in a row of contraction for Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey as the headline print plunged to -20.8 from -13.9 (missing expectations of a hopeful bounce to -8.0 by 6 standard deviations). Despite the unequivocally good rebound in oil prices, sentiment in Dallas remains dismal with new orders crashing as even 'hope' has now given way to realism as the 6-month outlook tumbles back into negative territory.