Dallas Fed

Double Data Disappointment Today Follows Worst Macro Week In 6 Years

Following the worst week for US macro data in six years, The Chicago Fed (National Activity) and now The Dallas Fed (regional) have both disappointed and fallen this morning... "I keep reading and hearing that things are swinging in a favorable direction. I don’t see it yet."

Euphoria Returns: European Stocks Soar, Dax Hits Record; S&P Futs Surge In "French Relief Rally"

Risk is definitely on this morning as European shares soar, led by French stocks a new record high in Germany's Dax, and S&P futures up 1.2% after a "French relief rally" in which the first round of the country’s presidential elections prompted investors to bet that establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron will win a runoff vote next month. Asian stocks also surged, expect for China, which suffered its biggest drop of the year, down 1.4%, ending the streak of losses no greater than 1% going back to December.

European, US Stocks In Eerie Calm As French Vote Looms

Global markets were oddly calm on Friday, the last day of trading before the first round of France's closely fought presidential election, with European stocks posting modest declines ahead of Sunday's main event, Asian shares rising, and set for first weekly gain in the past month, while U.S. futures were unchanged.

Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday.

Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Headed For The Crapper?

It’s no secret the plumbers at the Fed are feverishly devising a way to unwind their $4.5 trillion balance sheet with officials claiming this will nary elicit an inkling of a disturbance in the markets they’ve coddled all these years. But one must wonder, at the timing, at the ostensive optics, if nothing else...Unless, that is, the motivations of shrinkage are less than magnanimous and dare one say, immoral.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago will likely attract significant attention.

Julian Brigden: "This Is What The 'Armageddon Scenario' For Markets Looks Like"

"My base case is always been that you don't get to the Armageddon scenario with weak data. You actually get to the Armageddon scenario when you actually get strong data. The end game for markets, the most dangerous toxic scenario for markets comes when you've got vastly inflated prices and central banks actually need to hike. "

Goldman's 'Analyst Index' Tumbles In March As 'Soft' Survey Data Rolls Over

Since the election, talking heads have crowed about improving economic data (macro- and micro-). However, what they have failed to mention is all of the improvements have been in 'soft' survey and sentiment data, not 'hard' economic figures; and now, judging from the plunge in Goldman Sachs Analyst Index, soft data is starting to lose faith rapidly.

'Soft' Data Slump Continues - Dallas Fed Misses, Tumbles Most In 14 Months

Following disappointing Manufacturing and Services PMIs last week, this week has not started well for the hope embedded in 'soft' survey data. After six straight months higher, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook slumped in March (down 7.6pts to 16.9). This is the biggest drop since Jan 2016 and was lower than all estimates.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.