Dallas Fed

Julian Brigden: "This Is What The 'Armageddon Scenario' For Markets Looks Like"

"My base case is always been that you don't get to the Armageddon scenario with weak data. You actually get to the Armageddon scenario when you actually get strong data. The end game for markets, the most dangerous toxic scenario for markets comes when you've got vastly inflated prices and central banks actually need to hike. "

Goldman's 'Analyst Index' Tumbles In March As 'Soft' Survey Data Rolls Over

Since the election, talking heads have crowed about improving economic data (macro- and micro-). However, what they have failed to mention is all of the improvements have been in 'soft' survey and sentiment data, not 'hard' economic figures; and now, judging from the plunge in Goldman Sachs Analyst Index, soft data is starting to lose faith rapidly.

'Soft' Data Slump Continues - Dallas Fed Misses, Tumbles Most In 14 Months

Following disappointing Manufacturing and Services PMIs last week, this week has not started well for the hope embedded in 'soft' survey data. After six straight months higher, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook slumped in March (down 7.6pts to 16.9). This is the biggest drop since Jan 2016 and was lower than all estimates.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

Where Do America's Subprime Borrowers Live

The two graphs show the percentage of the population with a credit score below 660 in each U.S. county in 2009 and 2016. Comparing 2009 and 2016, we see that the percentage of the population with a subprime credit score has decreased.

"It Can Only Disappoint" - What Wall Street Expects From Today's Jobs Report

If wages disappoint for the second month in a row, then markets may begin to ease back their hiking expectations for the rest of the year. For markets to price out a rate hike in March, wage growth would probably need to slow markedly and the headline NFP number to fall well below 100K.

The Fed's Dependence On The Consumer Will Backfire

The story is that it is consumers that are going "to push the economy to grow more than 2 percent this year." That's Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan's recently expressed view. It's the old fallacy of spending - rather than saving - our way into growth.

With All Eyes On Trump Tonight, US Futures, Global Stocks Hug The Flatline

With traders focused on President Trump's address to Congress tonight where he is expected to outline his economic priorities and provide plan details, European stocks are little changed for a second day and Asian stocks decline modestly as U.S. futures trade around the flatline. Oil declines, while the dollar is little changed.

Key Events In The Coming US

The main focus this week will be on President Trump's speech to Congress and Chair Yellen's speech which is the last before the blackout period. US durable goods, ISM, the BoC rate decision, EZ CPI, UK PMIs and a busy calendar in Australia & Scandinavia also coming up.

Global Stocks Drop, Futures Flat; French Yields Slide As Political Jitters Subside

In a quiet night for markets, in which the top highlight was the Oscar's historic peddling of best picture "fake news" and where "millions" of Academy members seemingly voted illegally, European stocks were little changed after a selloff that pushed them to a two-week low, while the MSCI Asia index fells as Japan’s Topix dropped for third day. S&P futures were unchanged.