Dallas Fed

The 5 Key Things To Watch For In Today's Fed Minutes

Despite desperate attempts to jawbone March rate-hike-odds higher, because as Master said last night "we don't want to surprise the markets", Fed Funds Futures imply just a 36% chance (down from a week ago). That suggests, if The Fed is serious about March, that today's minutes must be spun towards that narrative. Here are the five key areas to watch for...

Key Events In The Coming Humphrey-Hawkish Week

The key economic releases this week are CPI, retail sales, and industrial production on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday (Humphrey-Hawkins).

Payrolls Preview: Expect An Upside Surprise (Thanks To The Weather)

Despite ADP's blowout print this week, consensus January payrolls is 175k (somewhat below the 6- and 12-month averages), but Goldman Sachs expects a higher 200k print thanks to a combination of lower-than-usual year-end layoffs, favorable weather effects, and further improvement in labor market indicators.

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U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was hoping to bypass Parliament on when and how to trigger divorce proceedings with the European Union. Then the Supreme Court set her straight. So this week lawmakers discuss for the first time a short bill giving her permission to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty.

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U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May was hoping to bypass Parliament on when and how to trigger divorce proceedings with the European Union. Then the Supreme Court set her straight. So this week lawmakers discuss for the first time a short bill giving her permission to invoke Article 50 of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey Soars To Highest Since 2010

Following upwardly revised December data, January's Dallas Fed manufacturing survey printed 22.1 - the highest since April 2010. Of course, as we noted previously, this is 'soft' survey data and not actual economic data, which has yet to produce any notable improvement.

Key Events In The Coming "Big Week" For The US

Markets will again zero in on the U.S. this week, and not just because of Donald Trump. The Federal Reserve meeting and nonfarm payrolls may set a clear direction for dollar and yields for the next few months. Other key releases include ISM, ADP, housing data, personal income & spending, vehicle sales and core PCE.

Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all drop after traders were left with a sour taste from the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s order halting some immigration and ahead of central bank decisions from the U.S. and Japan.  Markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are all shut due to the Lunar New Year public holiday.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.