Dallas Fed

Cracks At The Core Of The Core

It is the “Core of the Core” that now concerns us the most. That is where Federal Reserve (and global central bank) policies have left their greatest mark. It is at the “Core of the Core” where momentous misperceptions and market mispricing have become deeply entrenched. It’s the “Core of the Core” that has attracted enormous amounts of “money” over recent years. It’s also here where I believe leverage has quietly been used most aggressively. Over recent years it became one massive Crowded Trade. Now the sophisticated players must contemplate beating the unsuspecting public to the exits.

Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears

The Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week when first nothing the rumor, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.

Cheap Oil Hits Housing In North Dakota, Texas, & Others

Most Americans will still welcome low prices at the pump. But in the oil boom towns of yesterday, the slowdown is very much being felt - "The jobs are leaving, and if an area gets depopulated, they can't take the houses with them and that's dangerous for the housing market."

Dallas Fed Survey Crashes To June 2009 Lows, Warns "It Is Getting Ugly"

After a Q1 collapse, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook managed a bounce for a few months (though never got back above zero). It appears, Dallas Fed's aptly-named 'Dick' Fischer was entirely wrong when he progonosticated that "on net, low oil prices are good for Texas." December's Dallas Fed print crashed to -20.1 (from -4.9) massively missing expectations of -7.0 and back at the lows not seen since June 2009.

Global Stocks, U.S. Futures Slide As Oil Resumes Drop, China Stocks Tumble Most In One Month

The last trading week of 2015 begins on a historic precipice for stocks: as reported over the weekend, the U.S. stock market has not been lower for any year ending in a “5? since 1875. That streak is now in jeopardy, because following Thursday's shortened holiday session which ended with an abrupt selloff, the overnight session has seen continued weakness across global assets in everything from Chinese stocks which tumbled the most since November 27, to commodities (WTI  is down 2.5%) to European stocks (Stoxx 600 -0.4%), to US equity futures down 0.4% on what appears to be an overdue dose of Santa Rally buyers' remorse.

10 Investor Warning Signs For 2016

Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops

There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

Recession Looms As Dallas Fed Manufacturing Contracts 11th Month In A Row

Following Milwaukee Fed weakness, Dallas Fed Manufacturing printed -4.9 (better than expectations of -10 and up from October's -12.7). This is the 11th monthly contraction (sub-50) in the index, something not seen outside of a recession. Prices paid and received tumbled, wages dropped and new orders contracted once again but number of employees and average workweek both jumped? Despite all the promises from former Dallas Fed Fisher, it appears the economy is not so diversified after all.

Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

As noted earlier, after last week's snoozefest, this week starts off with a bang when the IMF announces in a few hours it will accept the Chinese Yuan in the pantheon of world reserve currencies alongside the USD, EUR, GBP and JPY the only question being what the alotted weighing of the currency will be. Things then progress to tomorrow's global PMI numbers, Yellen speeches on the economy to the Economic Club of Washington and Congress (Weds/Thurs), the eagerly anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday and finally Friday's OPEC meeting and US payroll print - the last before the FOMC in 2 weeks time.

Futures Rebound On Latest Chinese Intervention, Renewed Hopes For "Moar From Mario"

Without a rerun of last Friday's Chinese stock market rout, European traders could focus on what "really matters", namely how much of the ECB's upcoming 20 bps rate cut and €20 billion QE expansion (with Commerzbank saying Draghi may even hint at Europe's QE3) is priced in, and whether the ECB's actions are just modestly priced in, or more than fully, and just how big the "sell the news" event will be.The result: the Euro falls to a new 7 month low, the dollar spot index hits a new all time high, and European stocks and US futures stage another remarkable overnight comeback on the usual low volume levitation and central bank intervention.

Permabulls Whistling Past The Grave

The Fed was out in force yesterday peddling some pretty heavy-duty malarkey about the up-coming rate liftoff at the December meeting..."If we begin to raise interest rates, that’s a good thing." That’s not a bad thing." Goldman is putting out the final mullet call for this Bubble Cycle because it knows that this bull is dying; that insiders still have massive amounts of stock winnings to unload; and that the clock is fast running out. The expiring clock is evident in the S&P 500’s one-year round trip to nowhere. Despite the fact that the Fed has ponied-up a stick save at every single meeting this year, the market’s 27 separate efforts to rally have all failed for the simple reason that the jig is up.

Global Markets Surge Overnight On Fed Minutes Optimism; ECB Minutes Set To Keep Rally Going

While it is still unclear just why the FOMC Minutes which are said to have made a December liftoff "more likely" unleashed a dramatic market rally, one which sent both stocks and TSYs higher, the sentiment continued overnight, with both Asian stocks surging on the US momentum, as well as Europe, where the DAX gapped solidly above the 200 DMA as most European shares advanced, led by resources, travel stocks. U.S. futures continue their ramp higher, and at last check were another 8 points, or 0.4%, in the green.  But if the Fed Minutes were enough to unleash the latest leg in this rally, than the ECB's own minutes due also today, should send futures back over 2100 without much difficult, regardless of their actual content.