Detroit

When is the economic collapse going to happen?  Just open up your eyes and take a look around the globe.  The next wave of the economic collapse may not have reached Wall Street yet, but it is already deeply affecting billions of lives all over the planet.  Much of Europe has already descended into a deep economic depression, very disturbing economic data is coming out of the second and third largest economies on the globe (China and Japan), and in most of the world economic inequality is growing even though 80 percent of the global population already lives on less than $10 a day.  Just because the Dow has been setting brand new all-time records lately does not mean that everything is okay.  Remember, a bubble is always the biggest right before it bursts.  The next major wave of the economic collapse is already sweeping across Europe and Asia and it is going to devastate the United States as well.

Not even the most prodigious and reckless money-printing binge can fix it

• Controversies give Obama new governing headaches (Reuters)
• About that Capex... BHP to Rein In Investment, Chief Says (WSJ), considers returning cash to shareholders (FT)
• Bloomberg users’ messages leaked online (FT)
• Japanese mayor sparks China outrage with sex-slave remarks (Reuters)
• Economists Cut China Forecasts (WSJ)
• U.S. oil boom leaves OPEC sidelined from demand growth (Reuters)
• U.S. banks push back on change in loan loss accounting (Reuters)
• Fed’s Plosser Says Slowing Inflation No Concern for Policy (BBG)
• Watchdog probes 1m US swap contracts (FT)
• Used Gold Supply Heads for ’08 Low as Sellers Balk (BBG)
• Ex-BlackRock Manager Said to Be Arrested in U.K. Probe (BBG)

Meet the new "WMD" whose merest ownership is sufficient to get you arrested. That and having an Arabic sounding name of course.

Another day, another US city on the brink of insolvency. This time it's Detroit, whose recently appointed emergency financial manager Kevyn Orr said may run out of cash next month and must cut costs such as long-term debt and retiree obligations. According to Bloomberg, "Orr’s report says the cost of $9.4 billion in bond, pension and other long-term liabilities is sapping the ability to provide such basic services as public safety and transportation. He listed cutting debt principal, retiree benefits and jobs among options he may take. “No one should underestimate the severity of the financial crisis,” He called his report "a sobering wake-up call about the dire financial straits the city of Detroit faces."

• Pentagon Plans for the Worst in Syria (WSJ)
• Russia and US agree to Syria conference after Moscow talks (FT)
• Hedge Funds Rush Into Debt Trading With $108 Billion (BBG)
• Detroit is the new "deep value" - Hedge funds in search of distress take a look at Detroit (Reuters)
• Commodities hedge funds suffer weak first quarter (FT)
• But... but... Abenomics - Toshiba posts 62% decline in Q1 net profit (WSJ)
• Americans Are Borrowing Again but Still Less Than Before Freeze (WSJ)
• Man Utd announce Alex Ferguson to retire (FT)
• Asmussen Says ECB Discussed ABS Purchases to Spur SME Lending (BBG)
• Benghazi Attack Set for New Review (WSJ)
• Belgium Says 31 People Arrested Over $50 Million Diamond Theft (BBG)
• Brazilian diplomat Roberto Azevêdo wins WTO leadership battle (FT)
• Bangladesh Garment Factory Building Collapse Toll Reaches 782 (BBG)

If there is one admirable thing about the Case Shiller Home Price Index report (which sadly shows data for February so a nearly three month delay) is that even according to its authors, it is the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number that is representative of what is going on in housing. And, as the chart below shows, very little is going on as the broader price level continues to undulate in a very tight range with little real moves to the up or downside.

The world is heading into a horrific economic nightmare, and an inordinate amount of the suffering is going to fall on innocent children.  If you want to get an idea of what America is going to look like in the not too distant future, just check out what is happening in Greece.  At this point, Greece is experiencing a full-blown economic depression. And as you will read about below, child hunger is absolutely exploding in Greece right now.  Some families are literally trying to survive on pasta and ketchup.  But don't think for a moment that it can't happen here.Sadly, the truth is that child hunger is already rising very rapidly in our poverty-stricken cities.  Never before have we had so many Americans unable to take care of themselves. Unfortunately, more poor families slip through the cracks with each passing day, and these are supposedly times in which we are experiencing an "economic recovery".  So what are things going to look like when the next major economic downturn strikes?

What is happening to you America?  Once upon a time, the United States was a place where free enterprise thrived and the greatest cities that the world had ever seen sprouted up from coast to coast.  Good jobs were plentiful and a manufacturing boom helped fuel the rise of the largest and most vibrant middle class in the history of the planet.  Cities such as Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Baltimore were all teeming with economic activity and the rest of the globe looked on our economic miracle with a mixture of wonder and envy.  But now look at us.  Our once proud cities are being transformed into poverty-stricken hellholes. We are in the midst of a long-term economic collapse that is eating away at us like cancer, and things are going to get a lot worse than this.  So if you still live in a prosperous area of the country, don't laugh at what is happening to others.  What is happening to them will be coming to your area soon enough.

Rogoff-Reinhart's failure functionally legitimizes debt levels that are measured in multiples of GDP. I think they should be stripped of their credentials.

The nightly developments continue as we learn next that Tsarnaev is in serious (or critical according to Bloomberg) condition in the hospital, with a gunshot wound to the neck and leg, and that perhaps just as importantly, he will not get his Miranda warning, instead the FBI is overruling due process and using the "public safety" exception instead.

• JPMorgan Leads Job Cuts as Banks Seek to Bolster Profit (BBG)
• North Koreans don't show for work at Kaesong factory park (Reuters), as NK urges foreigners to leave South Korea (FT)
• Lisbon Struggles to Close New Budget Gap (WSJ)
• Portugal may face delay to bailout funds (FT)
• Putin Squeezing Out UBS to Deutsche Bank Using Oligarchs (BBG)
• China's Xi Says Fast Growth Over (WSJ)
• Spain’s PM wants more powers for ECB (FT)
• Bernanke Says Interest on Reserves Would Be Main Tightening Tool (BBG)
• Bird Flu Claims 7th Victim in China (WSJ)
• Texting While Flying Linked to Commercial Helicopter Crash (BBG)... No, Bernanke wasn't the pilot

If the economy is getting better, then why does poverty in America continue to grow so rapidly?  Yes, the stock market has been hitting all-time highs recently, but also the number of Americans living in poverty has now reached a level not seen since the 1960s.  Yes, corporate profits are at levels never seen before, but so is the number of Americans on food stamps.  Yes, housing prices have started to rebound a little bit (especially in wealthy areas), but there are also more than a million public school students in America that are homeless.  That is the first time that has ever happened in U.S. history. So should we measure our economic progress by the false stock market bubble that has been inflated by Ben Bernanke's reckless money printing, or should we measure our economic progress by how the poor and the middle class are doing?  Because if we look at how average Americans are doing these days, then there is not much to be excited about. Unfortunately, that bubble of false hope is not going to last much longer.  In fact, we are already seeing signs that it is getting ready to burst.

The more time passes, the more skeletons emerge from the closet.  So what’s the punishment for an industry that has literally destroyed countless communities across the American landscape?  Trillions in taxpayer bailouts and even more control over our government.  They say “it would’ve been much worse without the bailouts.”  Tell that to Detroit...

Meetings between public company managements and investors are the bedrock of the fundamental investment process.  The reason for that, however, is often lost in translation.  It is not, for example, because most investors or analysts are systematically better at reading “Body language” about the quarter or new products.  Seriously – they aren’t.  No – the reason that management meetings are useful is because, over time, managements let down their guards and act like regular people.  And in those moments, truth – about character, about wisdom, about judgment – comes rolling out.  Today we offer up a personal highlight reel of examples from +20 years of management meetings. Between the earnings forecast and the actual results sit only two things: time and management.  Time is uniform; management quality is not.