Detroit

Everything is going to be just great.  Haven't you heard?  The stock market is at an all-time high, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says that inflation is incredibly low, and the official unemployment rate has been steadily declining since early in Barack Obama's first term.  Of course we are being facetious, but this is the kind of talk about the economy that you will hear if you tune in to the mainstream media.  They would have us believe that those running things know exactly what they are doing and that very bright days are ahead for America.  And it would be wonderful if that was actually true. Unfortunately, as I made exceedingly clear yesterday, the U.S. economy has already been in continual decline for the past decade.

Congress: "Is it fair to say that Wall Street has benefited more [from QE] than Main Street has?"

Bernanke: "I don't think so... I want to emphasize that we're very focused on Main Street... Our low interest rates have created a lot of ability to buy automobiles..."

Between Detroit's bankruptcy, Microsoft's miss and worst drop in over 13 years, and GOOG's miss (latter gobbled back by the BTFD'ers), it is no surprise that stocks rallied (thanks to GE's explosion higher and Trannies surging). Mixed bag overall in stocks with the Nasdaq -1.4% on the week and TRAN +2.2% (with the S&P and Dow around 0.6%). Treasuries 'outperformed' stocks relatively speaking with a 11-12bps compression in the belly and 6bps at the long-end on the week - ending today at the low yields of the week. As an aside, AAA muni spreads pushed to their highest in 13 months as yield remain notably elevated as Treasuries rallied. Despite a 1% weakening of the JPY, the USD ended the week down around 0.4% driven by EUR (and AUD) strength. Despite USD weakness, Silver lost 2.2% on the week while gold gained 0.7%. WTI crossed above $109 and Brent today gaining 2.25% on the week (off today's highs). VIX dumped back to 2 months lows under 13%, volume was dismal all week (worst today), but new highs all around for stocks (amid another idiotic Friday closing ramp) so we must be doing great?

Presented with little comment aside to note that no matter how much free money is mis-allocated to a problem, the can-kicking eventually runs out of road and reality bites.

"For years, the City has spent more than it takes in and has borrowed and deferred paying certain obligations to make ends meet. The City is insolvent" - Kevin Orr

UPDATE: Well that didn't last long - maybe just "Oops" would have been more appropriate

Michigan Governor and Detroit's emergency manager take the stage to explain it all...

While in the past President Obama has been more that willing to throw good money after bad and "refuse to let Detroit go bankrupt," it seems when push comes to shove - under the intense scrutiny of a nation awash in scandal, a drastically bifurcated congress - that despite the imploring from local congressmen for "moar" already - that the savior of the city will not this time ride to the rescue on his white horse. In a statement, the White House said they "are monitoring the situation in Detroit closely," with no hint - just as they have made clear for months - of any sort of Federal bailout. As USA Today notes, the federal government provided federal loans to prevent New York City from declaring bankruptcy during the 1970s. But times have changed; the federal government has debt and financial problems of its own, and a Detroit bailout could run into significant opposition in Congress and cause serious damage in the Muni market.

• Detroit ‘Gut Kick’ Poses New Test for Long Suffering City (BBG)
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• China, U.S. companies' great hope, now a drag (Reuters)
• Morgan Stanley stock traders rebuild burned bridges (Reuters)
• Huawei spied for China, claims ex-CIA head Michael Hayden (FT)
• Gorilla Flipping Homes as Rebound Revives Rapid Trades (BBG)
• BRICS joint action at G20 summit may be wishful thinking (Reuters)

With little going on today besides the just reported GE earnings, which beat consensus EPS expectations of $0.35 by the smallest possible increment but, as expected, missed consensus revenue of $35.56 printing at $35.12, and both the Japanese (which experienced a 500 point drop in minutes overnight) and Chinese (which closed below 2000 again) markets sliding, it is perhaps better to summarize the day that just was: Detroit City files for bankruptcy (send in Detroika!), Moody's take the US off negative outlook, Google and Microsoft miss on earnings and the S&P 500 hits a new record high. As DB says, the above certainly made for an eventful close to the US session after what was a fairly dull second day of testimony and Q&A for Bernanke. He has said all that can be said for now and we're left waiting for the data. And the earnings data so far has been abysmal if mostly on the top line, with corporate revenues now assured to double dip and decline for the second quarter in a row. And if the tech bellwethers all of which have been major disappointments to date and have guided down, are an indication of what is coming, Q3 may and will be even worse.

Just in case there was any question if a thousand monkeys armed with iPads could not only give Moody's a run for the money (even without leaking LBO information to the highest bidder) but solidly trash Uncle Warren's rating agency, the following statement should put any doubts to rest: "The bankruptcy filing by Detroit is a credit negative, Moody's Investors Service said on Thursday, because it creates uncertainty for bondholders, will likely interrupt payments on general obligation and limited tax bonds, and begins a process that may span years." That this statement comes from the same rating agency which concurrently with the Detroit bankruptcy raised its outlook on the US (a/k/a established a DOJ litigation reserve) due to, among other things, the "secure status of US dollars" is not surprising at all.

Four years ago he bailed out the city's automotive industry, and a whole lot of union votes. Moments ago, Obama was just called in again, this time to bail out the entire city. "Representative Chaka Fattah (D-PA), a leader of the Congressional Urban Caucus, sent a letter to President Obama today calling on the Administration to lend a helping hand to Detroit, Michigan following the news that the city has filed for bankruptcy." So will the president play favorites? Or will the municipal bailout begin where the private sector bailout ended? And since bailouts tend to be contagious, if and when Obama does "lend a helping hand" to Detroit, paid for by all US taxpayers, which city, or rather cities, will demand the same treatment? And how long until other people's money finally runs out?

Here’s what happens next...

Watch the first official press conference following the largest US muni bankruptcy in history.

"Both before and after the appointment of an emergency manager, many talented individuals have put enormous energy into attempting to avoid this outcome. I knew from the outset that it would be difficult to reverse 60 years of decline in which promises were made that did not reflect the reality of the ability to deliver on those promises. I very much hoped those efforts would succeed without resorting to bankruptcy. Unfortunately, they have not. We must face the fact that the City cannot and is not paying its debts as they become due, and is insolvent..... I know we share a concern for the public employees who gave years of service to the City and now fear for their financial future in retirement, and I am confident that all of the City's creditors will be treated fairly in this process. "

Richard D. Snyder Governor, State of Michigan

Just nine short months after proclaiming victory on his plan to save Detroit by throwing taxpayer money at the 'problem' of over-levered, over-unioned, and under-demanded auto manufacturers, it seems the ball is back in President Obama's court once again. He "refused to throw in the towel and do nothing. We refused to let Detroit go bankrupt. We bet on American workers and American ingenuity, and three years later, that bet is paying off in a big way." Of course, what the rest of the unsuspecting US citizenry is likely unaware of yet is that once again the municipal workers' pension plans (that face 90% losses) will be bailed-out via the Pension Benefits Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) - A US Government (ponzi) Agency. But of course, that's for the good of the whole nation...