Detroit

The post-1945 European settlement had many successes. But it is now crumbling. It needs drastic modification. That requires statesmen of the calibre of the men of 1945. It is time for politicians who wish to earn a place in history and upgrade themselves to statesmanhood to step up to the challenge.

• Greece requests euro zone loan extension, offers big concessions (Reuters)
• Germany Rejects Loan Request Saying Greece Must Meet Conditions (BBG)
• Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars (BBG)
• French consumer prices fall for first time since 2009 (Reuters)
• Oil falls sharply after U.S. crude inventories rise (Reuters)
• High-Speed Firm Virtu Revives IPO Plans (WSJ)
• Fed Tiptoes Into Rate-Hike Debate (Hilsenrath)
• Rajoy’s Nemesis Is Back: Anti-Graft Editor Targets Vote (BBG)

"Our downgrade is about more than execution risk; we note: (1) The profound drop in fuel prices harms the competitiveness relative to internal combustion engine vehicles of TSLA’s planned Model 3 mass-market car, the potential for which we believe accounts for the majority of today’s equity value; and (2) Competition is mounting – automakers at the recent Detroit Auto Show debuted a number of electrified vehicles, some of which appear directly aimed at the Tesla Model S (e.g., Mercedes C-Class Plug-in Hybrid), the X (e.g., Audi Q7 e-Tron Plug-in Diesel Hybrid), and the 3 (e.g., Chevrolet Bolt) – see takeaways from our walking tour of the show. We reduce our estimates on flow-through of 4Q’s softer sales and margin trends, and guidance for higher operating costs: 1Q15 goes to -$0.31 from +$0.93 and FY15 to $1.89 from $4.12. Our December 2015 price targetd-declines to $175 from $180." -JPM

The dominoes are beginning to fall. The initial spark in 2008 has triggered a series of unyielding responses by those in power, but further emergencies and unintended consequences juxtapose, connect and accelerate a chain reaction that will become uncontainable once a tipping point is reached. The fabric of society is tearing at points of extreme vulnerability, with depression, violence and war on the foreseeable horizon. Mr. President, the shadow of crisis has not passed. The looming shadow of crisis grows ever larger and darker by the day as this Crisis enters the most dangerous phase, where the existing social order will be swept away in a torrent of carnage and ferocious struggle. We are not a chosen people. We are not immune from dire outcomes.

The US, like western Europe, is in the midst of a massive failure of its brand of capitalism. There are no free markets, no price discovery, there are asset bubbles being blown with money that belongs to our grandchildren as people are thrown into despair, while others attain unparalleled riches, and the whole grossly distorted movie is fed to everyone by a well-oiled spin machine. Yes, 40 million Americans are on food stamps, 100 million are not even officially in the labor force, and perhaps as much as most Americans are receiving some sort of government assistance, but that doesn’t make it socialism. It makes it a failed capitalist system. Socialism is supposed to be about a society that cares, and that’s not what those US government handouts are about. They’re about keeping people quiet in a failed system.

In a day of furious disappointments, the Case-Shiller housing report, albeit looking at the ancient economic picture as of November, confirmed what most had known: that the growth in housing prices slowed down yet again on not only a Year over Year basis, which rose just 4.31%, the lowest annual increase since October 2012 but also dropped by -0.22% decline on a monthly basis, which may not sound like much, but was the worst monthly drop since February 2012!

"The second quarter is going to be devastating for the service companies," warns Conway Mackenzie - the largest U.S. restructuring firm - adding that, despite slashing thousands of jobs, delaying (or scrapping) billions in capex amid the prolonged rout in oil prices, "there are certainly companies that are going to die." As Bloomberg reports, oil drillers will begin collapsing under the weight of lower crude prices during the second quarter and energy explorers who employ them will shortly follow with oilfield-service providers are facing a "double-whammy." As we noted here, there are more than a few candidates for this 'death' list as it appears increasingly clear that what was considered an "unambiguously good" narrative for the nation is anything but...

Believe it or not, I was much more interested in these ads from 1978, and they are a study.

Tesla shares are down over 5% after-hours - and back below $200 - after CEO Elon Musk, speaking before addressing a conference in Detroit, said China Q4 sales declined significantly. As Dow Jones reports, Musk believes the sales decline is linked to consumer misperceptions regarding charging...

• Earnings Pessimism Jumps as Oil Threatens S&P 500 Growth (BBG)
• It’s Amateur Hour in the Booming Chinese Stock Market (BBG)
• France mobilizes 10,000 troops at home after Paris shootings (Reuters)
• European Stocks Gain With S&P 500 Futures While Oil Drops (BBG)
• Nasdaq Looks to Operate Dark Pools for Banks (WSJ)
• This Guy Called Bonds in ’14. You Listening This Time? (BBG)
• Paris attacks boost support for Dutch anti-Islam populist Wilders (Reuters)
• OPEC price war in Asia intensifies as oil falls below $50 (Reuters)

If Americans were honest with themselves they would acknowledge that the Republic is no more. We now live in a police state. If we do not recognize and resist this development, freedom and prosperity for all Americans will continue to deteriorate. All liberties in America today are under siege. Reality is now setting in for America and for that matter for most of the world. We should not be discouraged. Enlightenment is not nearly as difficult to achieve as it was before the breakthrough with Internet communications occurred. I smell progress.

While in no way minimizing the terror that must have been extreme among the drivers and passengers of these 200 vehicles as they slowed, slid, and slammed into one another on I-94 (near Battle Creek, Michigan), one can't help but analogize to the two most crowded trades in the world right now and what happens when the traders' "liquidity" is the same as the drivers' "visibility."

Be afraid, be very afraid. While French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Friday "The nation is relieved tonight," after the two standoffs concluded, as CNN reports, the French government's work is not over. French law enforcement officers have been told to erase their social media presence and to carry their weapons at all times because terror sleeper cells have been activated over the last 24 hours in the country, according to a French police source. Investigations continue into which terrorist group was ultimately responsible and, not be outdone in the fearmongery, The US State Department has issued a Worldwide Caution warning travelers, of the "continuing threat of terrorist actions and violence against U.S. citizens and interests throughout the world." Thank goodness we have the governments to protect us.

The short answer is in parts of Seattle, Charlotte, Phoenix, Atlanta, Tampa, Cincinnati, Raleigh, N.C., Houston, Denver, Columbus, Ohio, Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla., Raleigh, N.C., Chicago, and Winston-Salem, N.C. Among the 2,490 zip codes nationwide with at least one single family purchase by the top four institutional investors between January 2012 and October 2014, the top 50 zip codes with the highest percentage of purchases by the four largest institutional investors were in those metro areas. “The institutional investors kick-started the housing recovery by buying homes in bulk at the lowest point and holding them as rentals,” said Chris Pollinger, senior vice president of sales at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. Los Angeles County was among the top 10 for most purchases by institutional investors over the past three years, with 6,152. “As the market continues to climb, we expect these investors to start to sell off their inventory to capture the gains made in the past couple of years.”

• Police Surround Paris Terror Suspects Near CDG Airport (BBG)
• ECB Said to Study Bond-Purchase Models Up to 500 Billion Euros (BBG)
• How OPEC Weaponized the Price of Oil Against U.S. Drillers (BBG)
• German Industrial Production Falls Amid Plunge in Energy Output (BBG)
• Car Loans See Rise In Missed Payments (WSJ)
• Jim O'Neill threatens he will replace BRICs with ICs (BBG)
• Oil heads for seventh weekly loss as supply glut drags (Reuters)
• Armed man takes hostage in kosher grocery in Paris (AFP)
• Janus Chairman Didn’t Know Details of Gross’s Investment (WSJ)
• Kaisa Bondholders Dream of White Knight as Default Becomes Real (BBG)