Donald Trump

“I worry greatly that the rhetoric coming from the Republicans, particularly Donald Trump, is sending a message to Muslims here ... and ... around the world, that there is a ‘clash of civilizations.'” So said Hillary Clinton in Saturday night’s New Hampshire debate. Yet, that phrase was not popularized by Donald Trump, but by Harvard’s famed Samuel Huntington. That Clinton is unaware of the thesis, or dismisses it, does not speak well of the depth of her understanding of our world.

The premises of the rate increase are several: that the Fed knows best what interest rate is good for the economy... that a recovery is sufficiently established to permit an end to the emergency micro rates of the last seven years... and that otherwise everything is more or less hunky-dory. And they are all false!

In 13 succinct words, Donald Trump summed up reality in American politics...

Following Vladimir Putin's 'endorsement' of The Donald, explaining his hope for "a more substantial, deeper relationship," with America, Trump has reciprocated the show of respect by thanking the Russian president for the "great honor." This mutual back-patting stunned MSNBC anchor Joe Scarborough, who exclaimed, Putin "is a person who kills journalists, political opponents and invades countries," to which Trump responded, silencing Scarborough, "he's running his country, and at least he's a leader, unlike what we have in our country."

“He’s a really brilliant and talented person, without any doubt. It’s not our job to judge his qualities, that’s a job for American voters, but he’s the absolute leader in the presidential race.”

"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"

• Fed Poised to Mark the End of an Era (Hilsenrath)
• Fed opens meeting to put an end to crisis era policy (Reuters)
• Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide (BBG)
• Emerging Markets Gird for Fed Rate Increase (WSJ)
• What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like (BBG)
• 5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting (WSJ)

In the fifth and final GOP presidential nominee debate deathmatch (from The Ventian in Vegas), all eyes will be on the Cruz and Rubio as they vie for 2nd place to The Teflon Don. It won't be all plain-sailing for Trump (who warned CNN about "fairness" and slammed FOX's Megyn Kelly in the pre-debate tweetfest), who expects "them all to be coming for me," but we suspect Ben Carson will be a little quieter. With the stakes highest so far (and Iowa caucuses just 7 weeks away) for some of the also-rans it is put-up-or-shut-up time which may mean more fireworks and spectacle as Americans are distracted from their fear of terror, stagnant income, pre-Fed last supper.

Has the GOP establishment learned nothing from history? What the elites have to realize is that it is they and the policies they produced that are the reason Trump, Carson and Cruz currently hold an overwhelming majority of Republican votes.

Many people are cheering now that yesterday Marine Le Pen and her Front National (FN) party didn’t get to take over government in any regions in the France regional elections. They should think again. FN did get a lot more votes than the last time around, and, though she will be a little disappointed after last weekend’s results, it’s exactly as Le Pen herself said: “Nothing can stop us”.

Having disposed of Saudi's "dopey, daddy's boy" Prince bin Talal, Donald Trump has turned his attention back to domestic affairs, taking Hillary Clinton head on. With some of his most heated comments yet, The Hill reports, the Republican presidential front-runner is pinning blame for the Syrian civil war and the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) on Hillary Clinton.

The fear in both the GOP and Democratic party is visible at the surface when it comes to Trump, and it's not that he's any of what they've accused him of.  No, it's really much simpler than that, and both Republican and Democrat parties, along with the mainstream media, are utterly terrified that you, the average American, is going to figure out what underlies all of these institutions in America.

The real problem for the Fed will be how foolish it will look if it does raise by 25 basis points and is then forced by a slowing economy to lower rates back to zero soon after liftoff. At that point, the markets should finally understand that the Fed is powerless to get out of the stimulus trap it has created. But it looks like the Fed would rather look foolish later when it's forced to cut rates, than look foolish now by not raising them at all. The Fed’s rocket to nowhere will hover above the launch pad for a considerable period of time before ultimately falling back down to Earth.

Calling for a moratorium on Muslim immigration “until our country’s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on,” Donald Trump this week ignited a firestorm of historic proportions. As all the old hate words - xenophobe, racist, bigot - have lost their electric charge from overuse, and Trump was being called a fascist demagogue and compared to Hitler and Mussolini. Why the hysteria? Comes the reply: Trump’s call for a temporary ban on Muslim immigration tramples all over “American values” and everything we stand for, including the Constitution. But is this really true? In fact, is this move a well thought out cunning plan?