Fannie Mae

• Central Banks Ponder Going Beyond Inflation Mandates (BBG)
• Bloomberg Weighs Making Bid for The Financial Times (NYT)
• Hedge Funds Fall Out of Love with Equities (FT)
• Obama and Boehner resume US fiscal cliff talks (FT)
• Italy Front-Runner Vows Steady Hand (WSJ)
• Spanish Bailout Caution Grows as Business Lobbies Back Rajoy (BBG)
• Japan sinks into fresh recession (Reuters)
• China economic recovery intact, but weak exports drag (Reuters)
• Greece extends buyback offer to reach target (Reuters)  ... but on Friday they promised it was done
• Basel Liquidity Rule May Be Watered Down Amid Crisis (BBG) ... just before they are scrapped
• Irish, Greek Workers Seen Suffering Most in 2013 Amid EU Slump (BBG)

By now there is likely not a single individual who is not aware of the impending "fiscal cliff" and the economic impact that it represents. Obama, and the Democratic controlled Senate, have already lined up on raising taxes on the "rich" while the Republican controlled House has firmly asserted that they are amenable to closing tax loopholes in conjunction with spending cuts.  The two sides could not currently be farther apart from reaching a deal - yet, as Yoda would say: "Reach a deal we must." The Democrats have given no indication that they will compromise on any front and that tax hikes are all that is available for discussion.  Likewise, the stance by the Republicans is just as firm as they stand behind their pledge of no tax increases.  However, in the end, it will be the Republican led house that will again define "insanity" by repeating the same mistakes of their past - 'Caving'. In the next few days as the "fiscal cliff" draws nearer that media pressure from the White House will intensify to a fevered pitch with threats of economic recession due to Republican's unwillingness to compromise. This is the same tactic that was used during the debt ceiling debate in 2011 and until the politicians realize that slower economic growth is the "short term pain" required to establish the stable economic foundation from which "long term gains" may be achieved, the Republicans (in this case) will repeat the same 'caving' errors and expect a different outcome.

The FHA has been the key element to the phony “housing recovery” the government has been trying to create.  In the wake of the collapse of 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac blew up and what was left to pick up the pieces was the FHA.  No private player would issue loans with down payments of 3%, but this was no problem for the FHA! Well - yes! "The Federal Housing Administration is expected to report this week it could exhaust its reserves because of rising mortgage delinquencies" This is a big deal.  The FHA is already in trouble despite a miraculous “housing recovery” and we haven’t even hit a severe cyclical economic slowdown yet, which is almost certain to occur in 2013.  What shambles do you think the housing market will be in once that happens and the last backstop to housing is broke?

Moments ago Ben Bernanke released a speech titled "Challenges in Housing and Mortgage Markets" in which he said that while the US housing revival faces significant obstacles, the Fed will do everything it can to back the "housing recovery" (supposedly on top of the $40 billion in MBS it monetizes each month, and/or QEternity+1^?). He then goes on to say that tight lenders may be thwarting the recovery, and is concerned about high unemployment, things that should be prevented as housing is a "powerful headwind to the recovery." In other words - the same canned gibberish he has been showering upon those stupid and naive enough to listen and/or believe him, because once the current downtrend in the market is confirmed to be a long-term decline, the 4th dead cat bounce in housing will end. But perhaps what is most amusing is that the Fed is now accusing none other than the US household for not doing their patriotic duty to reflate the peak bubble. To wit: "The Federal Reserve will continue to do what we can to support the housing recovery, both through our monetary policy and our regulatory and supervisory actions. But, as I have discussed, not all of the responsibility lies with the government; households, the financial services industry, and those in the nonprofit sector must play their part as well." So "get to work, Mr. Household: Benny and the Inkjets, not to mention Chuck Schumer's careers rest on your bubble-reflation skills."

We have discussed the apparent (though anecdotal) divergence between refinancing rates and interest rates a number of times. Furthermore, we have exclaimed at the significant drop in refi rates since QE3 (following the initial spike) noting the unintended consequence that US households are increasingly realizing that rates will never be allowed to rise and so every rate rise is not a signal to rush into refinancing but instead a signal to pause for lower rates. The chart below is somewhat surprising in its clarity as Goldman Sachs note that despite record low mortgage rates, borrowers are refinancing at a rate of just 20-30% per year - far lower than prepayment speeds we would expect. The great majority of 'in the money' mortgages are not being refinanced and while we suggest this is the unintended Bernanke conditioning, Goldman also opines that industry capacity and underwriting standards on the supply side; and consumer awareness and household behavior on the demand side. Bernanke's wealth-building transmission channel via housing is entirely broken...

• Japan grapples with own fiscal cliff (Bloomberg)
• Japan Protests After Four Chinese Vessels Enter Disputed Waters (Bloomberg)
• Asian Stocks Rise as Exporters Gain on China, U.S. Data (Bloomberg)
• An obsolete Hilsenrath speaks: Fed Keeps Rates Low, Says Growth Is Moderate (WSJ)
• ECB Said to Push Spain’s Bankia to Swap Junior Debt for Shares (Bloomberg)
• Spain’s Bad Bank Seen as Too Big to Work (Bloomberg)
• China postpones Japan anniversary events (China Daily)
• Carney Says Rate Increase ‘Less Imminent’ on Economy Risk (Bloomberg)
• Credit Suisse to Cut More Costs as Quarterly Profit Falls (Bloomberg)
• Obama offers a glimpse of his second-term priorities (Reuters)
• Draghi defends bond-buying programme (FT)

There was a time when the announcement of lawsuits against Bank of America for the fraudulent mortgage practices of the worst M&A acquisition of all time - Countrywide Financial - sent the stock of BAC plunging. Now, it has become a daily thing and any incremental news barely cause a budget in the stock. One just needs to look at the surging Reps and Warranties claims against the bank (most recently in the latest Q3 earnings report) for improper mortgage conduct in the past to get a sense that very soon the firm's entire market cap will be less than the liability and litigation reserve it will need to establish against the avalanche of lawsuits we predicted back in October 2010. The litigation against the bank now is so large, that it will soon have to pull its TBTF get out of bankruptcy card just to avoid being sued to death in a 1000 legal paper cuts. This explains why the just announced latest lawsuit against BAC by the NY District Attorney, seeking $1 billion or so, for fraudulent loan-origination practices barely caused a stir in the stock.

Or to put in another way, by Christmas we may very well see Case-Shiller and other indicators of home prices headed back down, erasing the gains made in housing during 1H 2012.  

• Dead Heat for Romney, Obama (WSJ)
• The Cheerful Billionaire Who Thinks Obama's a Socialist (Businessweek)
• "Get to work, Mr. Japanese Chairman": Japan Exports Tumble 10% as Maehara Presses BOJ to Ease (Bloomberg)
• Chinese Investors Fear Chill in Canada (WSJ)
• Rosneft Buys BP’s TNK-BP Stake for $26 Billion in Cash, Shares (Bloomberg)
• Hong Kong Defends Its Currency Peg for First Time Since 2009 (Bloomberg)
• Democrats threaten payroll tax cut consensus (FT)
• Spain's Rajoy gets mixed message in regional votes (Reuters)
• Merkel to warn UK on Europe budget veto (FT)
• Netanyahu says doesn't know of any U.S.-Iran talks (Reuters)... neither does Iran, so near certainty
• Der Kurrency Tsar: ECB’s Knot Backs Schaeuble Call for Stronger EU Budget Power (Bloomberg)
• Fannie Mae Limiting Loans Helps JPMorgan Mortgage Profits (Bloomberg)

A mere three weeks ago we noted that Tim Geithner is preparing to transition to a Blackrock cubicle...

Geithner Reiterates Refusal to Talk About Monetary Policy. Or which floor of Blackrock his cubicle will be on

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 25, 2012

Today, it seems, the FT has finally got the memo as they note that Mr. Fink (Geithner's new boss?) trumped Mr. Rubin (Geithner's old boss?) as the most frequent 'can-I-phone-a-friend' call - speaking 49 times over 18 months (once every 11 days). We wonder if this is simply a 'rotation' discussion/interview process as Fink transitions to Geithner's little seat at Treasury and Geithner slides into his capacity as official guard of the Blackrock Stapler in the 3rd sub-basement.

The essence of money-laundering is that fraudulent or illegally derived assets and income are recycled into legitimate enterprises. That is the entire Federal Reserve project in a nutshell. Dodgy mortgages, phantom claims and phantom assets, are recycled via Fed purchase and "retired" to its opaque balance sheet. In exchange, the Fed gives cash to the owners of the phantom assets, cash which is fundamentally a claim on the future earnings and productivity of American citizens. Some might argue that the global drug mafia are the largest money-launderers in the world, and this might be correct. But $1.1 trillion is seriously monumental laundering, and now the Fed will be laundering another $480 billion a year in perpetuity, until it has laundered the entire portfolio of phantom mortgages and claims. The rule of law is dead in the U.S. It "cost too much" to the financial sector that rules the State, the Central Bank and thus the nation. Once the Fed has laundered all the phantom assets into cash assets and driven wages down another notch, then the process of transforming a nation of owners into a nation of serfs can be completed.

Here's the Fed's policy in plain English: Debt-serfdom is good because it enriches the banks. All hail debt-serfdom, our goal and our god!

Liar, Liar, Fed-Stoked Bubble Assets on Fire!!!!

We believe an unsustainable new global financial architecture that arose in response to the US and European financial crises has replaced an older, more sustainable, architecture. The old architecture was crystallized in Washington- and IMF-inspired policy responses to the numerous sovereign defaults, banking system failures, and currency collapses. Most importantly, the previous architecture recognized limits on fiscal and central bank balance sheets. The new architecture attempts to 'back', perhaps unconsciously, the entire liability side of the global financial system. This framing is consistent with a purely political—institutional stylized—fact that it is nearly impossible to penetrate the US political parties if the message is that there are limits to their power…or that their power requires great effort and sacrifice. This is why Keynesians (at least US ones) who argue there are no limits to a fiscal balance sheet are so popular with Democrats, and why monetarists (at least US ones) who argue there are no limits to a central bank balance sheet are popular with (a decreasing number of) Republicans. Party on! Again, nobody chooses hard-currency regimes – they are forced on non-credible policymakers. Let me put it more positively. If politicians want the power of fiat money, let alone the global reserve currency, they need to behave differently than they have - or the consequences for Gold are extraordinary.

Saving the banks by dumping trillions into housing is classic marginal return. Since the mechanism is broken--housing as the "wealth effect" generator and the source of billions in profits for banks--every $1 trillion in subsidies, give-aways, guarantees and mortgage purchases by the Fed yield fewer benefits to the real economy. Once again the question arises: rather than loan $16 trillion to banks at 0%, why doesn't the Fed just buy all residential mortgages for $10 trillion and charge 0.25% interest on the lot? That would cut out the banks, and that is the point here: the Fed's policies are not aimed at "helping housing," they're aimed at protecting the banks' income streams, assets and political power. Since the banks own $10 trillion in mortgages, housing is a key concern of the Fed's "save and enrich the banks" campaign.

Here's the Fed's policy in plain English: Debt-serfdom is good because it enriches the banks. All hail debt-serfdom, our goal and our god!