Fitch

• Inside J.P. Morgan's Blunder (WSJ) - Where we learn that Jamie Dimon did not inform his regulator, the Fed, where he is a board member of the massive JPM loss even as he was fully aware of the possible unlimited downside
• Euro Attempted Recovery Countered By Asian Sovereigns (MNI)
• Santander, BBVA Among Spanish Banks Downgraded by Moody’s (Bloomberg)
• Defiant Message From Greece (WSJ)
• G-8 Leaders to Discuss Oil Market as Iran Embargo Nears (Bloomberg)
• Spain hires Goldman Sachs to value Bankia (Reuters)
• China to exclude foreign firms in shale gas tender (Reuters)
• Fed Board Nominees Powell, Stein Win Senate Confirmation (Bloomberg)
• Defiant Message From Greece (WSJ)
• Fitch Cuts Greece as Leaders Spar Over Euro Membership (Bloomberg)
• Madrid Hails Moves by Regions to Cut Spending (WSJ)

And.... roundtrip.

• From March 13: Fitch upgraded Greece's credit rating by one notch to B- following a successful debt swap finalised this week that erased some €100 billion from the country's crippling debt
• From May 17: Fitch Ratings-London-17 May 2012: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Greece's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'CCC' from 'B-'. The Short-term foreign currency IDR has also been downgraded to 'C' from 'B'. At the same time, the agency has revised the Country Ceiling to 'B-'. The downgrade of Greece's sovereign ratings reflects the heightened risk that Greece may not be able to sustain its membership of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The strong showing of 'anti-austerity' parties in the 6 May parliamentary elections and subsequent failure to form a government underscores the lack of public and political support for the EU-IMF EUR173bn programme.

It would be laughable if it wasn't so... nevermind, it is laughable.

Just As I Warned Of JPM's Exposure, Those Other Warnings Will Come To Pass As Well. I pull stuff out of my analytical archives and low and behold, who do I find?

All you need to know.

The failure to form a coalition government in Greece this weekend has prompted risk averse trade across the asset classes this morning with publications across Europe continuing to speculate about the potential exit of Greece from the Euro-area. As a result of this the Spanish 10yr yield touched 6.2% and the respective spreads over benchmark bunds in Spain and Italy have traded as wide as 30bps so far today. The knock on effect has been a sell-off in the financials which has seen the IBEX and FTSE MIB under perform in the equity markets with a relative safe-haven bid into the USD weighing on crude futures and precious metals. Spanish t-bill auctions and a variety of lines tapped out of Italy did stem the tide after selling around the top end of their indicative ranges but focus will remain solely on Greece given a lack of tier 1 data out of the US. Moving forward the next meeting of party heads in Greece is scheduled to commence at 1730BST, however, the head of the Syriza party has already indicated he will not be attending with the leader of the democratic left suggesting he is doubtful that a coalition can be formed.

Big Ben starved the banks trying to save them, hence they got more aggressive in hunting for food (yield)! That being the case, don't believe only JPM was overreaching for yield.

First came the rhetorical jawboning, where following announcements by Fitch, European politicians, and finally Germany's finance minister, the scene was set to prepare the general public that despite protests to the contrary, a Greek exit from the euro would not really be quite the apocalypse imagined. Now comes the actual quantification part, whereby in addition to adding numbers and determining what the further sunk costs to a Greek bailout will be (hint: much, much greater than anyone can conceive), Germany has finally understood what we have been warning for over a year: that contingent liabilities become very real liabilities when a threshold event forces the transition from "off balance sheet" to on, and the piper has to be paid. According to an analysis released hours ago in Wirtschafts Woche, Germany "would only absorb losses of 76.6 billion euros in Germany. This amount results from bilateral aid loans, the liability of Germany's share in credit rescue fund EFSF, Germany's share of losses of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the German share of liability to the credit support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)."

Update: now S&P is also one month behind Egan Jones: JPMorgan Chase & Co. Outlook to Negative From Stable by S&P. Only NRSRO in pristinely good standing is Moodys, and then the $2.1 billion margin call will be complete.

So it begins, even as it explains why the Dimon announcement was on Thursday - why to give the rating agencies the benefit of the Friday 5 o'clock bomb of course:

• JPMorgan Cut by Fitch to A+/F1; L-T IDR on Watch Negative

What was the one notch collateral call again? And when is the Morgan Stanley 3 notch cut coming? Ah yes:

So... another $2.1 billion just got Corzined? Little by little, these are adding up.

Oh yeah..... Greece.

Yesterday it was Fitch setting the groundwork. Today the natural escalation has arrived, with a Handelsblatt report that German coalition lawmakers saying they are open to a Greek farewell. To wit: "Politicians of the CDU-FDP coalition will no longer look on the goings on passively. Given the uncertain political situation in Greece are advocating for a withdrawal of the crisis-Mediterranean Heads of State from the euro zone. "We should offer Greece, leaving the euro zone controlled, without withdrawing from the European Union." For now this is merely posturing, as Greek is doing all it can to make it clear it does not need Germany. Of course, Germany has no other choice but to reply the way it has. The only problem is that the Nash equilibrium is now of mutual defection, which is the worst possible outcome for Europe, and even worse for US taxpayers, whose cash via the FRBNY's FX swaps will be used to rescue Europe when the dominoes finally tumble. But at this point, this it is pretty much a given.

If French Fitch, which will first be Egan-Jonesed than downgrade France from its unmovable AAA rating is starting to say that the unthinkable, namely the departure of Greece from the Eurozone, would be "bearable", then things are about to get once again exciting, as this is merely setting the stage for the next leg down. Among the other google translated gibberish said by Fitch chief Taylor, here is the argument: Germany would merely soak up the damage caused by a Greek departure: "Greece's exit does not mean the end of the euro. Above all, Germany has a fundamental interest in preserving the common currency remains. Would the D-mark re-introduced, they would add value compared to other currencies strong. The export industry, that is: would the engine of the German economy, damaged. This will not allow Germany - even if one or more countries leave the single currency area." How about Italy's exit? Or Portugal's? Or Spain's? At what point does it become unbearable for German taxpayers to burn their wealth to preserve a system that virtually nobody but a few select career politicians demand?

Three weeks ago we discussed the ultimate-doomsday presentation of the state of Spain which best summarized the macro-concerns facing the nation and its banks. Since then the market, and now the ratings agencies, have fully digested that meal of dysphoric data and pushed Spanish sovereign and bank bond spreads back to levels seen before the LTRO's short-lived (though self-defeating) munificence transfixed global investors. However, the world moves on and while most are focused directly on yields, spreads, unemployment rates, and loan-delinquency levels, there are two critical new numbers to pay attention to immediately - that we are sure the market will soon learn to appreciate. The first is 5%. This is the haircut increase that ECB collateral will require once all ratings agencies shift to BBB+ or below (meaning massive margin calls and cash needs for the exact banks that are the most exposed and least capable of achieving said liquidity). The second is 10%. This is the level of funded (bank) assets that are financed by the Central Bank and as UBS notes, this is the tipping point beyond which banks are treated differently by the market and have historically required significant equity issuance to return to regular private market funding. With S&P having made the move to BBB+ this week (and Italy already there), and Spain's banking system having reached 11% as of the last ECB announcement (and Italy 7.7%), it would appear we are set for more heat in the European kitchen - especially since Nomura adds that they do not expect any meaningful response from the ECB until things get a lot worse. The world is waking up to the realization that de-linking sovereigns and banks (as opposed to concentrating that systemic risk) is key to stabilizing markets.

... but not from us: after all we are known for being biased, which in the mainstream media parlance means calling it like it is. No - instead we leave it to none other than Bloomberg's Jonathan Weil who does as good a job of being "biased" as we ever could: "Egan-Jones, which has been in business since 1992, could have continued operating as an independent publisher of ratings and analysis, not subject to government oversight or control. Instead it chose to play within the Big Three’s system, exposing itself to regulation and the whims of the SEC in exchange for the government’s imprimatur. Now it’s paying the price." And not only that: as the most recent example of Spain just shows, where Egan Jones downgraded Spain 9 days ago and was ignored, but well ahead of everyone else, only to be piggybacked by S&P, and the whole world flipping out, it has become clear: calling out reality, and the fools that populate it, is becoming not only a dangerous game, but increasingly more illegal. Then again - this is not the first time we have seen just this happen in broad daylight, with nobody daring to say anything about it. In fact, this phenomenon tends to be a rather traditional side-effect of every declining superpower. Such as the case is right now...

In a week that Spain can't wait to end, the country was just hit with the bad news bears Trifecta, starting with the Real Madrid loss, following with the second S&P downgrade of Spain's credit rating for the year last night (or is that now SBBB+ain?), and concluding with economic data released this morning which showed that the economy is in a free fall that is approaching that of Greece, after retail sales fell for the 21st consecutive month, while Q1 unemployment soared to, drumroll please, one quarter of the working population or 24.44% to be specific, trouncing consensus estimates of 23.8%, and up nearly 2% from the 22.85% as of December 31. Which likely means that the real unemployment is far higher, and confirms not only that the economy is in free fall mode, but that Moody's, which delayed its downgrade of the country's banks to May, will proceed shortly.

• Merkel Pushes Back Against Hollande Call to End Austerity Drive (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Draghi throws crisis ball back to governments (Reuters)
• Greek Bank Chief Warns of a Possible Euro Exit (WSJ)
• China’s Wen Says Economy Will Maintain Robust Expansion (Bloomberg)
• North Korea's nuclear test ready "soon" (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Peg Architect Says Convertible Yuan `Long Way Off’ (Bloomberg)
• Hollande seeks wider EU fiscal pact (FT)
• Gavyn Davies: Why UK GDP continues to lag the G7 (FT)
• U.S. Lost AAA on Danger of Liquidity Crisis, S&P’s Kraemer Says (Bloomberg)