Front Running

Weekend Reading: Copious Cognitions

If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. In fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999...

Hugh Hendry: "We Are Running A Trumpian Portfolio"

  • In Europe we anticipate further duress in the political commitment to the European project as the success of Trump’s economic stimulus plan keeps US growth humming
  • The combination of Trumpian economics and Japanese 10-year nominal yields being trapped at zero by the Bank of Japan should mean the yen continues to weaken.
  • And finally, there are Chinese trades which generate positive carry should the status quo persist yet remain long volatility should pressure on the renminbi intensify

Can The Market Hang On To Support Here?

It is critical for the markets to “hang on” to current support at the previous breakout highs. A failure to do so will put the markets back into the previous trading range that has existed going back to 2014.

The Disgusting Silence Fueling Crony Capitalism

Free market capitalism - the very heart, soul, and driving engine that has propelled technology, medicine, transportation, manufacturing, efficient markets, and so much more - is not only under assault; it is being left out to hang like some dried, dead leaf by the very people who should be at the forefront for its defense. i.e., CEO’s and business leaders of all stripes. Yet, so far – the silence is deafening.

The US Real Estate Big Picture... A Thesis In Moral Hazard

Given central banks are all in and have no credible ideas (or credibility period), a NIRP driven speculative new housing bubble (for a population that is barely growing...hello China?) seems most likely.  If you haven't already, get busy front running the next moral hazard moonshot and then stay tuned.  Because as you read this, central bankers are already devising their next (even more destructive) "plan".

Frontrunning: July 21

  • Global stocks nurse nine-month highs before ECB meeting (Reuters)
  • Kuroda Says No Need and No Possibility for Helicopter Money (BBG)
  • As Republican Party tries to heal wounds, discord rules at convention (Reuters)
  • GOP Divided as Cruz Snubs Trump (WSJ)
  • Trump Chooses War With Cruz at Convention Aimed at Unification (BBG)

HSBC Global Head Of FX Cash Trading Arrested At JFK Airport

A historic event took place moments ago when Mark Johnson, the global head of cash FX at HSBC was arrested at JFK airport for his role in a "conspiracy to rig currency benchmarks", and specifically for frontrunning customer orders. He is the first person charged by the US in the ongoing FX rigging probe.