GAAP

"Feeding The Monster" - The Complete Bear Case, In Charts

In Greek mythology there was a monster called Cerberus, the hound of Hades, a monstrous multi-headed dog who guarded the gates of the underworld, preventing the dead from leaving. Today central banks have taken on the role of feeding our own modern version of Cerberus to keep all the troubles away. This hound of Hades has 3 heads that are named debt, deflation and demographics. Together they make a deadly combination that will result in a massive reset of asset prices...and central bankers are running out of food to feed the monster.

"This Is Where The Good News Ends" - JPM Says All Margin Subcomponents Are Rolling Over

In the past 60 years, there has never been a recession starting before the peak in profit margins. However, once margins have peaked, the likelihood of a downturn increases materially... We believe that the rollover in profit margins will be a constraint for equities, as profits have tended to drive most economic variables, capex and employment in particular. It will also likely have negative implications for corporate activity, especially as M&A, buybacks and dividends are at cycle highs, and US financing conditions are deteriorating.

In Bizarre Letter, Overstock CEO Announced Leave Of Absence

"I must take an indefinite medical leave of absence. The proximate cause is that for over a year I have been gutting it out through a Stage IV diagnosis of Hepatitis C, contracted (to save awkward questions) in 1984 in Xinjiang when a barefoot doctor sewed up a head wound under less-than-ideal conditions. I have finished treatment and think I have it beat but only time will tell. Your firm is doing and will do well: I believe that in 2016 we will make $40 million GAAP Net Income (pre-tax) excluding net effect of blockchain efforts and the risk of declared recession."

- Patrick Byrne

Janet's Jabbering Leaves Investors "On The Edge Of A Live Volcano"

The evidence that Yellen is clueless or a blatant liar is endless. The casino gamblers keep dancing on the edge of a live volcano in the belief that Yellen has their back. In fact, her statements this week prove once again that she is right there on the edge with them - jabbering incoherently. One of these days, even the silicon units in the casino will take notice. The dancing will then turn into diving for the doors.

Yelling "Stay" In A Burning Theater - 'Simple' Janet Does It Again

The longer the Fed perpetuates today’s massive 24X bubble with soporific open mouth interventions like Yellen’s pathetic speech last week, the more violent and traumatic the risk asset implosion will ultimately be. You would think our monetary politburo might at least notice that after trading in no man’s land between 1870 and 2130 on the S&P 500 for the past 700 days, the casino is positioned exactly where it stood in 2007 and 2000. Simple Janet has attained a new milestone as a public menace with her speech to the Economic Club of New York. It amounted to yelling “stay” in a burning theater!

Global Stocks Rise, Europe Rebounds As Oil Halts Decline

In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.

"Good" News Is Bad Again? Commodity Carnage Continues Post-Payrolls

It appears Goldman clients are once again taking a bath. Having proposed that with monetary concerns temporarily sidelined, "good news should be good news for risky assets," today's better-than-expected jobs print (following China's better than expected PMIs) has sent stocks lower, bonds higher, and crack gold and oil...

For Canada's Banks This Is "The Next Shoe To Drop", And Why It Will Drop This Spring

"The analysts said they expect “the next shoe to drop” in Canada when second-quarter results are posted this spring. “Despite the recent move in oil, futures are flat year-to-date and prices are still down materially since the fall 2015 determinations,” they wrote. “This should result in further pressures on borrowing bases and the potential for covenant breaches.”

Fed's Flip-flopping Causes Technicians To Lose The Plot

" I would only add that even if one were Bullish at this point, which is perfectly reasonable (not my call, but reasonable), that with almost 94% of stocks above their 50 day ma while volatility, currencies and inflation expectations have surged into levels which coincided with prior inflection points across the risk spectrum, a consolidative pause and pullback remains on the table. 2077-2086 stop."

Goldman's Take On Yellen's Dovish Deluge: "A Less Confident Take On Rate Normalization"

In recent weeks, Goldman Sachs has gained prominence by being the only bank left standing in its confidence that the Fed's forecast of 2 rate hikes in 2016 is wrong, and instead is sticking with its hawkish prediction of at least 3 rate hikes for 2016. This also explains why Goldman has been pounding the table on long US dollar bets, which incidentally have led to major losses in the past three major central bank announcements, two from Mario Draghi and one from Yellen. why we were curious how Goldman would reconcile the latest "dovish" shocker from Yellen which has unleashed a dramatic buying spree of all risk assets (as of this moments the S&P500 is trading at a 23x LTM GAAP P/E), with Goldman's hawkish bias.