Germany

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On The (Jackson) Hole

Absent any major geopolitical shocks, it is set to be a quiet summer week ahead with focus on the Jackson Hole conference. On the data front the key releases will be US durable goods and Eurozone PMIs, as well as Japan inflation & UK and Norway GDP.

Eclipse Day Begins With S&P Futures Flat While Industrial Metals Soar

S&P500 futures, as well as Asian and European stocks, started off the week off unchanged after the S&P cash index fell to its lowest level in five weeks on Friday, with the "Bannon rally" fading on growing concerns about the US political situation, while tensions ratcheted up again as the US and South Korea began massive military drills

Gavekal On The Coming Clash Of Empires: Russia's Role As A Global Game-Changer

Just when China is starting to offer an alternative—an alternative that the US should be trying to bury—the US is moving to “weaponize” the dollar and pound other nations—even those as geo-strategically vital as Russia—for simple domestic political reasons. It all seems so short-sighted.

Will They Haul Off Trump's Statue, Too?

"We take for granted, too, that our officials are miracle workers... and that we live among the gods themselves in an economy that never takes a breather... a stock market that only goes up... and something for nothing until Hell freezes over...But a recession cannot be far off. When it comes, the stock market will go down in sympathy. Then, Mr. Trump’s statue might be hauled off, too, before it is ever put up."

USA Is Now Twice As Likely To 'Default' Than Germany

While the market turmoil (stocks down a few percentage points from all-time record highs) is being pinned on various factors (from North Korea, Trump, & Cohn to terrible retailer earnings and J-Hole anxiety), we suspect the real cause of market uncertainty is starting to peak through - the looming debt ceiling crisis that has now become too big and too imminent to ignore.

Frontrunning: August 18

  • Hunt for Driver Widens as Second Attack Hits Spain, Five Suspects Are Killed (WSJ)
  • FT loses it over bitcoin's relentless rise (FT)
  • China Codifies a Crackdown on ‘Irrational’ Outbound Investment (BBG)
  • U.S. Navy, citing poor seamanship, removes commanders of warship in deadly crash (Reuters)
  • ACLU Will No Longer Defend Hate Groups Protesting With Firearms (WSJ)

Will EVs Break The Grid?

While the UK government has vowed to end the sale of all new conventional gasoline and diesel cars by 2040, as part of a wider plan to fight air pollution, there is talk that electricity demand will lead to a fast and dirty response to a strained power grid.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer Speculates That Barcelona Attack May Be "Copycat" Of Charlottesville

"There will be questions about copycats. Questions, if what happened in Barcelona, was at all, at all, a copycat version of what happened in Charlottesville, Virginia.  Even though they may be different characters and different political ambitions, they use the same killing device. A vehicle going at high speed a group, a large group, of pedestrians."