Germany

Patriots, Flags, & Referenda - "We're All Screwed"

"There’s a lesson there. That we seem to have forgotten already. And now have to learn all over again. Through Colin Kaepernick, through the unbelievable Kurdish women’s YPG army, though the streets of Barcelona. Our world is screwed up, and we need to unscrew it."

Frontrunning: September 25

  • Merkel’s Bloc Regroups After ‘Nightmare Victory’ in Germany (BBG); Germany’s Election Results Reflect European Unease on Economy, Immigration (WSJ)
  • Chastened Merkel looks for coalition partners after vote (Reuters)
  • Iraqi Kurds Vote in Independence Referendum (WSJ)
  • GOP Revises Obamacare Repeal With Bill Headed to Likely Defeat (BBG)
  • Trump Tax Plan to Cut Taxes for Corporations and Wealthy (BBG)

Global Stocks Mixed After "Nightmare Victory" For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash

European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel and could lead to complicated coalition talks. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&P500 futures are steady. 

"Forget Germany, Spain Is The Real Problem"

"Divisions within Europe are mounting again. Any success by Catalonia sets a dangerous precedent for other want-away regions, not just in Spain. It emphasizes that many of the structural imbalances in the euro zone haven’t been fixed. Inequality is still growing."

In Major Disappointment, Merkel Wins German Election Despite Worst Result Since 1949; AfD Surges To Enter Parliament

The German polls have officially closed, and the first exit polls numbers come in, confirming the expected fourth victory for Angela Merkel, however with a far lower than expected 32.5% of the vote, while her main challenger, the SPD gets only 20%. What is striking is the dramatic (late) surge for the nationalist AfD party, which got a higher than expected 13.5% of the vote.

FX Week Ahead: Market In Need Of Brain-Changer, Not Game-Changer

After the FOMC meeting last week, it was (yet) again apparent that the Fed are still keen to maintain a normalisation path designed to not only get rates back to neutral levels, but also build up the policy tool kit again as well as staving off excessive leverage which has boosted stock markets to record highs. 

Why "Populism" Is Here To Stay

"...despite the fact that the survival of the liberal centre depends on the economic well-being of the middle-class, the liberal elites do not care enough to salvage it. Their attitude towards the issue is a mix of sufficiency, contempt and plain unwillingness to change a system that they perceive as beneficial to them."

With German Polls Closing, Merkel Looks To Historic 4th Term In Office; Far-Right AfD Set To Enter Bundestag

With polls closing shortly, Germany voted on Sunday in the country's federal elections in which long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel looks certain to win a historic fourth term in office. The vite is also expected to see the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) entering parliament: it would be the first time in 60 years that a far-right Germany party will be represented in the Bundestag.