Germany

"The market does not appear to be discounting negative knock-on effects. The outcome for recall costs and fines is unclear and largely depends on the engine performance post repair," said a Credit Suisse analyst in its report on the scandal. Estimates from Credit Suisse peg the costs of Dieselgate at a worst-case scenarios of $87 billion. This would make the VW scandal could be even bigger than Enron Scandal and BP Deepwater Scandal combined.

The European Commission will release €2 billion to Greece in the coming days to help the country manage the current migration crisis, a top Commission source told MNI Friday, but as German daily Wirtschaftswoche reports, the German Government is considering 'helping' Greece more financially – but only if Athens is more involved in the refugee crisis.

• McDonald’s Close to Deciding Whether to Change Structure of U.S. Real Estate (WSJ)
• Stocks Rise as Stimulus Bets Spur $4.1 Trillion Gain; Oil Climbs (BBG)
• Wall Street bonuses likely to plunge as trading revenue drops (Reuters)
• Syrian army launches Aleppo offensive with Iranian support (Reuters)
• Malaysia’s Najib Razak Played Key Role at Troubled 1MDB Investment Fund (WSJ)
• VW Loses Market Share in Europe as Diesel-Motor Recalls Loom (BBG)

Whatever the efforts of that expansive corps of intelligence analysts (and the vast intelligence edifice behind it), when anything happens in the Greater Middle East, you can essentially assume that the official American reaction, military and political, will be “surprise” and that policymakers will be left “scrambling” in a quagmire of ignorance to rescue American policy from the unexpected. The evidence, after all, is largely in.  In these years, for what now must be approaching three-quarters of a trillion dollars, the national security state and the military seem to have created an un-intelligence system.  Welcome to the fog of everything.

As has already been discussed at length, once the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union on Iran begin to be lifted next year, there is going to be a surge in the already oversupplied global crude oil markets. Although the surge in crude oil markets could further worsen the global supply/demand gap, Iran could present a new source of competition on other crucial fronts too, especially in the gas markets.

• China economic growth seen slowing despite policy easing (Reuters)
• FBI, Justice Department Investigating Daily Fantasy Sports Business Model (WSJ)
• Obama to slow pace of withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan (Reuters)
• Corporate America's Epic Debt Binge Leaves $119 Billion Hangover (BBG)
• Islamic State battles insurgents as Syria army prepares assault (Reuters)
• Why Hillary Clinton Can’t Win by Going After the NRA (BBG)

Now that it is election season, we have all sorts of politicians running around proclaiming that America is the greatest nation on the entire planet. And just this week, Warren Buffett stated that “America’s great now — it’s never been greater“. But is it actually true? Is the United States still a great nation?

"When I read that the report on the downing of the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine was being put in the hands of the Dutch, I knew that there would be no investigation and no attention to the facts. And there wasn’t."

News That Matters

Bernanke and now Yellen have created an environment just like the Roaring Twenties. What came next wasn't pretty

Way back in June we documented the “curious” case of Sweden’s broken QE and when we used the term “broken”, we didn’t just mean that inflation expectations weren’t moving higher. We meant that bond yields were rising as the adverse impact from the illiquidity "premium" surpassed the price appreciation benefit from frontrun central bank buying. Fast forward three months and Sweden looks set to “solve” the broken QE problem and by extension ensure it can stay in the currency war games by expanding the list of eligible assets to muni bonds.

When China was closed for one week at the end of September, something which helped catalyze the biggest weekly surge in US stocks in years, out of sight meant out of mind, and many (mostly algos) were hoping that China's problems would miraculously just go away. Alas after yesterday's latest trade data disappointment, it was once again China which confirmed that nothing is getting better with its economy in fact quite the contrary, and one quick look at the chart of wholesale, or factory-gate deflation, below shows that China is rapidly collapsing to a level last seen in 2009 because Chinese PPI plunged by 5.9% Y/Y, its 43rd consecutive drop - a swoon which is almost as bad as Caterpillar retail sales data.

After several purported incursions into Turkish airspace by Russian fighter jets, Ankara is "irate" at Moscow and now, tensions over Syria threaten to undermine the two countries' energy relationship. Thus, the Nord Stream line to Germany - the capacity of which is set to double - has now become more important than ever for Gazprom. 

“I can’t even say with conviction that I’m sure, looking strictly on a cost-benefit basis, that FATCA’s... benefits are going to outweigh the cost.” FATCA constitutes theft. The US government is generating a little bit of revenue and the great expense of foreign banks and governments (not to mention the thousands of Americans who have had to renounce their citizenship because of FATCA’s idiotic rules).

For the past two weeks, the thinking probably went that if only the biggest short squeeze in history and the most "whiplashy" move since 2009 sends stocks high enough, the global economy will forget it is grinding toward recession with each passing day (and that the Fed are just looking for a 2-handle on the S&P and a 1-handle on the VIX before resuming with the rate hike rhetoric). Unfortunately, that's not how it worked out, and overnight we got abysmal economic data first from China, whose imports imploded, then the UK, which posted its first deflation CPI print since April, and finally from Germany, where the ZEW expectation surve tumbled from 12.1 to barely positive, printing at just 1.9 far below the 6.5 expected.