Germany

Europe has complex immigration rules. But, as the recent influx of refugees and economic migrants has shown, the EU government is able to flex its muscle in an ad hoc fashion in the service of compelling member states to accept the migrants and refugees. Ultimately, however, the imposed "solutions" to the migrant and refugee crisis may be a signal to many members that the EU isn't quite what they thought it was.

The Chinese economy will soon move into contraction, its leaders will panic and jump in with both feet. Fiscal and monetary stimulus, bail-outs, more political control, increased use of censorship, talk about patriotic duty and who know what else. What we do know is that it will look like this...

As part of the refugee crisis in which tens of thousands of innocent Syrians have been displaced and seeking European asylum, it was only a matter of time before one or more was "found" to be ISIS terrorists in order to perpetuate the fear and crisis narrative. A crisis which Brussels would never go to waste. That time has arrived after a report by German RTL and carried by NewObserver that "an ISIS terrorist posing as an "asylum seeker" has been arrested by German police in a “refugee” center in Stuttgart, and German customs officers have seized boxes containing Syrian passports being smuggled into Europe."

"You can’t talk for months about how to stabilize the situation and then take a decision that puts Ukraine and Slovakia into an unenviable situation."

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Market participants, be they lenders or borrowers, know that “easy money” has an expiry date. If The FOMC raises rates, "we foresee negative effects on world GDP in the medium term, not only for emerging markets but also for industrialized economies." In other words, though emerging markets – through their dependence on capital inflows – will be at risk when America’s monetary policy eventually returns to “normal,” the same will be true for advanced economies.

"The fence, in part being built by prisoners along the 175-km (109-mile) border, would be completed sooner than planned, by the beginning rather than the end of October. 'This 3.5-4-metre tall fence can be adequate to protect the country, especially if policemen are patrolling on the other side,"' Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff Janos Lazar told a weekly news conference."

The lack of leadership to tackle this clear and present danger to Europe's future is truly concerning. Both the migrants and the Europeans might be worse off as a result.

Europe's handling of its refugee crisis has led to much criticism and left even more to be desired, but until now Europe's general population was largely on the side of the misplaced migrants who are trying to reestablish their lives away from the daily horrors of the middle east, all in the name of a Qatari gas pipeline. That may soon change as Europe realizes the influx of tens of thousands of refugees will result in a dramatic surge in public costs, costs which have to be footed by someone. That someone will be the general population (with the wealthy targeted at first) courtesy of even higher taxes.

Now that Europe's migrant crisis is making international headlines on a nightly basis, France and Britain are set to use the influx of aslylum seekers as a pretext for airstrikes in Syria. The timing could not be more convenient as new "intelligence" suggests that Russia is expanding its presence in the Assad stronghold around Latakia. For its part, Germany is out warning the Kremlin against "military engagement."

It would be a welcome gesture for an incoming government to declare the actions of previous governments to be against the interests of the taxpayers and repudiate the national debt. This would not only relieve the taxpayers of a present burden but would also mean that any future government would find it hard to borrow from international creditors forcing them to bear the negative effects of their fiscal and monetary policies much earlier and with greater severity. Unfortunately Greece’s “anti-bailout” government’s decision to ignore a plebiscite opposing a new bailout deal and the German parliament’s recent approval of said deal (going against the will of the majority of Germans) proves that any concept of democratic legitimacy is not only logically flawed but will always be discredited in practice.

And to think all it took was Gartman going short of stocks in 25% correction terms yesterday...

Not to be outdone by his partner Charlie Munger (who offended many with his comments that "gold is a great thing to sew onto your garments if you're a Jewish family in Vienna in 1939,"), Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett - having already taken on Europe, comparing Greece to a "dog peeing on the carpet" of Europe, suggesting Germany stop "rewarding behavior you want to get rid of" - takes aim at the military. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, the octagenerian oracle of offense just unfriended every American veteran...

The refugee crisis in Europe - sparked in large part by Syria’s four-year old, bloody civil war - recently reached a tipping point and the scramble to find a workable solution both in terms of allocating asylum seekers and finding the funds to accommodate them has become the single most pressing challenge facing European policy makers. Amid the chaos, Goldman may have found the silver lining. 

"We shouldn't pass on the bill for the tasks that are facing us now to future generations. Being in favour of more debt and a further flooding of the markets with central bank money is neither original nor serious."