Germany

In addition to broad bloodletting across the board, with Belgium and Spain getting crushed as noted earlier, the core confusion continues with Germany back in triple digits, and the UK, which has roughly 500% total debt/GDP including all debt - corporate and private, or double Germany's, still shockingly in double digits. This won't last long.

The impossible is happening: resistance to printing money is fading. Has Germany hawked its soul to save the euro?

Among the traditionally meandering permabullish ramblings of a man who continues to ignore the disconnect between reality and his view of the world, tonight's note by GSAM loss leader Jim O'Neill "Surreal Times" has a very ominous rhetorical question inbetween all the bullish propaganda: "The ECB doesn’t seem to regard 10-year Italian bonds as a bargain and, of course, it is rather tricky as they need to be sure that Monti will deliver. In turn, this means that what is really important is that Mario gets support from those in the background and, ultimately, the Italian voters. And then there is Spain. And still, of course, the troubling Greek situation. And ultimately, the complex world of Berlin and Frankfurt. As many European newspapers are asking in recent days, does Germany actually really still want the EMU? And, as I shall now provocatively ask, does the Euro Area? All very surreal." No Jim, all very logical, because for the first time in decades, Europe is finally starting to do the math and realizes it is failing miserably. It is those stuck in a world in which combined total exports are greater than total imports by over $300 blilion: a mathematical lunacy, who think that what is happening is "very surreal." To everyone else, the right phrase is "very much expected."

Another noteworthy Kyle Bass moment as he discusses debt sustainability among major global sovereign nations. Simply and proficiently, the hedge fund manager describes how a dwindling current account surplus in Japan, US welfare economics, and the peripheral-to-core European stressors are all Madoff-like and unsustainable. Switching from broad-brush terms to the idiosyncratic complexities of each region, Bass offers his inimitable take - in a mere six minutes - on how the status quo is quivering under its own self-deception. His rightful conclusions remain extremely worrisome and should be required reading/watching for every central banker and politician trying to keep the dream alive.

There are now only two REAL outcomes: 1)   The ECB prints (and Germany walks) resulting in the Euro losing at the minimum 30-40% of its value, or...2)   Massive defaults and debt restructuring accompanied by systemic failure in Europe.

Not only is Germany at the epicentre of the Italian-Spanish-French save-us 'discussion', they have now managed to add Ireland to their 'Uber Alles'. Reuters is reporting the leak of confidential Irish budget information by German lawmakers and Irish parliamentarians are seething - viewing the leak as 'incredible' and 'unprecedented'. Given the new laws, Germany now has the right to be fully informed about bailout countries' progress before new tranches of funds are paid out. As the Irish Daily Mirror put it perfectly "Germany is ourt new master." It is evidently clear that sovereignty is indeed blurring at the edges - cue Nigel Farage.

It's official - Germany has become just like China (or, rather, has always been like it): the more it is pushed to do something (let ECB print), the more it will do the opposite. Half a year ago we discussed that the weakest point of the European bailout language was its reliance on Collective Action Clauses which imply that any resolution which does not have 100% backing of all bondholders would potentially push a country into default. In essence, this took control out of the hands of the Eurozone head, Germany, and put it to the bondholders. Well, according to a preliminary draft released by the Telegraph and FT, as part of the new bailout 'indenture' contained in the ESM, "under a section headed “The establishment of a procedure for an orderly default as part of the ESM”, Berlin makes clear that countries which are deemed to be insolvent – rather than just suffering a temporary loss of access to the financial markets – would be allowed, in effect, to declare bankruptcy and default on their bonds: If [a debt sustainability review] is negative, the affected member state would instead receive loans for a limited time only, during which the procedure for an orderly default would be prepared. In order to make sovereign defaults possible where they are unavoidable, the threat of instability in the financial system resulting from such a default must be able to be credibly excluded. A plan to maintain the stability of the financial system in the event of an orderly default needs to be developed in close co-operation with European banking regulators. This would determine which banks would be restructured and/or recapitalised, which will necessitate the drawing up of Europe-wide rules on bank restructuring." And as we discussed previously, the voluntary language will likely be taken out from the final draft, effectively giving Germany the unilateral ability to kick countries out. Which explains why the market is about to plunge: according to just released information from DPA, "the German Foreign Ministry on Friday confirmed that Germany was considering the possibility of more eurozone "orderly defaults" beyond that of Greece, as suggested by a paper leaked by the British press." In essence, what this means is that instead of relenting on the ECB issue, which as every investment bank has said would be the end of the world unless massive printing is permitted, Germany would rather kick countries out of the Eurozone instead of entering a hyperinflationary collapse. Perhaps it is now time for the banks to start toning down their language on the imminent destruction that would ensue if the ECB does not print, as this is apparently not happening...

Bob Janjuah channels the Stones when he writes in: "Germany appears to be adamant that full political and fiscal integration over the next decade (nothing substantive will happen over the short term, in my view) is the only option, and ECB monetisation is no longer possible. I really think it is that clear and simple. And if I am wrong, and the ECB does a U-turn and agrees to unlimited monetisation, I will simply wait for the inevitable knee-jerk rally to fade before reloading my short risk positions. Even if Germany and the ECB somehow agree to unlimited monetisation I believe it will do nothing to fix the insolvency and lack of  growth in the eurozone. It will just result in a major destruction of the ECB?s balance sheet which will force an ECB recap. At that point, I think Germany and its northern partners would walk away. Markets always want short, sharp, simple solutions. This is why the begging bowl is out for ECB unlimited monetisation. But, as in the immortal words of Messrs Jagger and Richards, "you can?t always get want you want?. And, this being Bob, the bottom line is pretty clear: "as far as I am concerned, nothing has changed my very bearish secular view on global risk for 2012, which targets the S&P 500 in the 800/900 area, with risk of an undershoot to the 700s."

Just hitting the tape... and the EURUSD:

• MERKEL'S CDU VOTES TO ALLOW EXITS FROM EURO AREA

This should not be news: this was reported last week, and the only question is whether or not the "voluntary" language would be embedded in the phrasing. Either way, risk is off.

The EURUSD is heading lower once again (back under 1.36), OATs are back near the wides of the day at 161bps, and BTP spreads to Bunds are 15bps off their best levels of the day as the Bundesbank jabs a stick in the spokes of the print-fest that seems to be the meme-du-jour for risk assets.

*BUNDESBANK SEES NO SIGNS OF CREDIT CRUNCH IN GERMANY

*BUNDESBANK SPOKESMAN SAYS NO ECB CRISIS MEETING TODAY, TOMORROW

Not exactly the talk we would expect from the ECB-proxy about to embark of regime-changing transactions.

For anyone who thinks that the ECB is some pristine virgin which has barely been touched in that special monetary printing place, we, or rather JP Morgan's Michael Cembalest, has some news for you: "To-date, that’s what the ECB has done: of the 1.1 trillion Euros extended to European banks and governments (through sovereign/covered bond purchases and repo), 970 billion has been given by the ECB." So anyone demanding that the ECB print even more outright (which incidentally we are certain will eventually happen - our thoughts are identical to those of Dylan Grice from two months ago: "ECBCTRL+P: The Next Steps In The European Implosion") should probably keep this in mind. It will also explain why German members of the ECB are dropping like flies, and why Germany, which better than anyone else, most certainly proponents of modern reincarnations of failed Keynesianism, knows what happens when central banks have gone wild, is certain that the ECB proceeding to move from €1 to many, many more trillions of explicit monetary support, will mean nothing short of hyperinflation.

If anyone needed the proper epitaph for the insane stupidity out of Europe, Reuters may have just provided it. In an exclusive article, Reuters stuns us with the following: "German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve establishing a more integrated and potentially smaller euro zone, EU sources say. French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave some flavour of his thinking during an address to students in the eastern French city of Strasbourg on Tuesday, when he said a two-speed Europe -- the euro zone moving ahead more rapidly than all 27 countries in the EU -- was the only model for the future." It gets much worse: "The discussions among senior policymakers in Paris, Berlin and Brussels go further, raising the possibility of one or more countries leaving the euro zone, while the remaining core pushes on towards deeper economic integration, including on tax and fiscal policy." Not sure how to further clarify this: Europe is preparing for its own end, and the dissolution of the existing structure of the Eurozone, which likely means an end to the EU in its current format, a reshaping of the customs union, and the overhaul of the zEURq.PK in its current form. Ironically, this may end up being favorable for the Euro... and detrimental for Germany. So the question is: will Germany go for it? At this point, it probably has no choice, unless it wants a mutiny on its hands.

EURUSD and US equity futures slid lower this evening as late day exuberance leaked away. This was then accelerated briefly by comments from Germany's FinMin Schaeuble in a German newspaper that Germany faces additional costs should Greece go bankrupt or bondholders face a larger write-down on GGBs. Bloomberg notes the comments suggest additional costs potentially amounting to billions stemming from losses at WestLB and Hypo RE. While this seems like a 'worse-not-worst' case scenario concern, it does suggest that even the venerable Germans do not see the EU Summit (10/26) solution as the endgame in the charade of European sovereign debt and politics.

No country is economically more dependent on the euro than export powerhouse Germany. But now that the euro extravaganza slammed into a mountain of debt, Germany finds itself at war—with itself.

Germany has rejected proposals by France, Britain and the US to have German gold reserves used as collateral for the Eurozone bailout fund. Germany Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said on Monday that the German people's gold reserves cannot be touched and “must remain off limits." "German gold reserves must remain untouchable," said Roesler, who is head of the Free Democrats (FDP), a partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition. Roesler added his voice to opposition to an idea proposed at the G20 summit of using reserves including gold as collateral for the euro zone bailout funds. The Bundesbank and Mr. Seibert, spokesman for Merkel, said Sunday that they too ruled out the idea discussed at the summit of Group of 20 leading economies last week. Mr. Seibert dismissed media reports yesterday that the plan to boost bailout funds, to aid Italy or another large euro zone country, would require Germany to sell off part of its gold and foreign exchange reserves. “Germany’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, administered by the Bundesbank, were not at any point up for discussion at the G20 summit in Cannes,” he said.