Germany

Anyone wondering why Axel Weber was passed over when picking the next ECB head in exchange for Goldman plant Mario Draghi, only needs to read a piece from Sueddeutsche Zeitung in which the former German central bank head, and future UBS head, confirms he actually does math. As has been said on Zero Hedge since back in July 21, when we actually did the math and realized the EFSF will not work as it will leave Germany footing the bill for all of Europe, Weber in essence said precisely that... but did not stop there. As quoted by Bloomberg, "Former Bundesbank President Axel Weber said the plan to leverage the European Financial Stability Facility increases the likelihood that tax payers have to step in, Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported. Germany’s public debt would rise to 135 percent of gross domestic product if Italy and Spain were to tap the EFSF financial backstop, the newspaper cited Weber as saying in a speech in Frankfurt. As the sole guarantor to the EFSF, Germany could end up with a debt of 314 percent of GDP in an extreme case, Weber said." This in turn brings us back to our own conclusion from 5 months ago: "What happens when an already mortally wounded in the polls Angela Merkel finds herself in the next general election and experiences an epic electoral loss? We will find out very, very shortly." We are happy that finally the Germans are realizing that the opportunity cost to propping up their export sector (the Euro, hence a "weak" DEM) can potentially be the bankruptcy of their country. We wonder how long until someone bypasses that despotic regime in Greece and actually proposes a referendum in Germany, asking the people if they are truly willing to subsidize their corporations in exchange for drowning in debt for millennia? America has already done this and, trust us, it is not pleasant.

As usual, the most surreal news of the day, perhaps week, is saved for Friday night, when we learn that Germany has magically raised over a quarter of its total EFSF obligation of €211 billion by way of what is essentially magic. The Telegraph reports that "Germany is €55bn richer than it previously thought because of an accounting error at state-owned bank Hypo Real Estate Holding. The mistake at "bad bank" FMS Wertmanagement, happened because collateral for derivatives wasn't netted between the asset and liability side, an FMS spokesman said. As a result, FMS will only contribute about €161bn to Germany's debt this year, down from €216.5bn in 2010." Another way of representing the error is that it is equal to a ridiculous 1% of the country's debt to GDP ratio. "Germany's 2010 debt-to-GDP ratio also drops, to 83.2% from the previous 84.2%, a finance ministry spokesman said." In other words, the modern world, best characterized by the imploding fiat ponzi, has discovered a way to raise capital (electronic, naturally) courtesy of CDS bookmarking errors. And now, we have seen it all.

It has been long in coming but finally the credit market is noticeably refocusing its attention to the two countries that are supposed to carry the burden of bailing out the world on their shoulders: Germany, and, that perpetual placeholder for global rescues, China. As noted yesterday, while following today's anticipated ISDA decision to effectively make price discovery in CDS null and void, and in the process also put the whole premise of sovereign debt insurance into doubt, CDS still provides a very useful metric courtesy of the DTCC, namely open interest, or said otherwise, gross and net notional outstanding in the CDS. And while we will reserve the observation that not only did ISDA kill sovereign CDS, but in the process it also ended bilateral netting effectively pushing up net CDS to the level of gross, we will highlight that as of the last week, net notional in both German and China CDS has hit a record, of $19.6 billion and $9.3 billion, respectively. This is occuring as notionals in the two most active countries to date, France and Italy, have been declining. In essence, what the CDS market is telling us is that while the easy money in French and Italian default risk has been made, it is now finally the turn of China and Germany to defend their credit risk and sovereign spreads. We expect that if China is indeed confirmed to be the backstopper of Europe through funding the EFSF in whole or in part, that while its CDS may or may not surge, net notionals will continue to increase as it means that ever more are laying insurance, as hobbled as it may be, on the country which recently was forced to bail out its own banking system, let alone Europe. Keep a close eye on China, which while the bulk of the market is taking for granted as the global rescuer of last resort with hard money, the smart money is already positioning itself for the next big disappointment.

Dr Pippa Malmgren is a former economic advisor to George W. Bush and a former advisor to Deutsche Bank. According to Malmgren, Germany has already ordered the printing of Deutsche Marks in anticipation of a possible withdrawal from the EU

The German parliament has a historic opportunity to say no to the bankers and stop the madness....

Ok, everyone can go on that Starbucks run: the market will be dead for the next hour when German government spokesman Siebert will make an announcement at 7:30 pm. No need for any UK tabloids to even frontrun the lies this time around. That said, we are concerned that the news won't be spinnable in a favorable fashion.

The Eurozone debt crisis gets worse. Bankers interfere. And the truth comes out: "The dreams to see the crisis ended by Monday couldn't be realized," says the German government.

It's all code for German backstops, which begs the question: How exactly are things going for Germany?

In our previous post we warned, indirectly through the IMF, that the biggest risk for Europe is the inability to reach consensus over anything from the most complicated, to the simplest matter. As noted previously, one of the main initial drivers of the market surge which has since translated into yet another short covering rally of epic proportions was the belief that Europe can actually come together in agreement over the simplest thing - like its own survival. Alas, it appears even that is not the case. As Bloomberg reports, "Germany and France are at odds over whether the European Financial Stability Facility should have limits on government bond purchases, Handelsblatt reported, citing an unidentified high-ranking European Union diplomat. France doesn’t want to restrict the EFSF on how much of its funds it can use for such purchases, the newspaper said in a preview of an article to appear in tomorrow’s edition. Germany wants to limit the amount EFSF can spend for bonds per country and is also considering whether there should be a time limit for bond purchases, Handelsblatt said." Said otherwise, here comes the latest cause of discord within Europe. Unfortunately, it also means that any rumor, innuendo and speculation that Europe has finally reached a coherent union over its own bailout can be promptly discarded. As if there was ever any doubt in the first place.

We won't comment on the supreme imbecility of being able to predict something as amorphous as a recession in decile increments, but for what it's worth, here it is. Just out from the crack Goldman tag team of Hatzius and Dominic Wilson, who usually don't work together unless they have to make some big statement: "We now see the risk of a renewed US recession as around 40%." (this was 30% before - expect every other Wall Street idiot to follow suit with an identical prediction). Also, those wondering if Goldman is content with getting shut out on its IOER cut demand, we have the answer: no. To wit: "We expect additional easing of monetary policy beyond the ‘operation twist’ announced recently, although this may not come until sometime in the first half of 2012. In addition, the market’s focus on changes in the Fed’s guidance on future policies - including a greater emphasis on the employment part of the ‘dual mandate’ and/or a temporarily higher inflation target - is likely to intensify." Lastly, as relates to the saving grace in Europe, little surprise there - Goldman, whose plant Mario Draghi is about to take over the ECB, expects the very same ECB to open the spigots: "The increase in financial risk is likely to lead the European Central Bank to ease its liquidity policies further this month, and the economic weakness will probably result in a cut in the repo rate by 50bp to 1% by December." As for European economic prospects, well, sacrifices will be made: "we now expect a mild recession in Germany and France, and a deeper downturn in the Euro periphery." And with a former Goldmanite about to take over the European money issuance authority, we have a bad feeling about what will transpire in Europe after October 31, when Trichet finally exits stage left.

Two months ago we said core European default risk is about to surge on risk transfer fears. This morning German CDS just hit a record. Yesterday, and on Friday, we said Belgium CDS is about to be monkeyhammered. Sure enough, Belgium is the worst performed of all European sovereigns, +18 on the day and soaring and threatens to go offerless as we type on imminent Dexia nationalization fears. And there's your alpha for the day.

The German "TARP equivalent" EFSF expansion vote has passed with a resdounding majority of 523 votes For and 85 Against. Obviously this was largely priced in judging by the rapid sell off in the EURUSd on the news. And now, back to focusing on the structural failure of the Eurozone which no vote can fix.

While overnight markets are rocking based on continued speculation coming from some completely uncorroborated and unconfirmed source that Europe has just boldly gone where even Goldman's Abacus has not dared to go before courtesy of the ECB's acceptance of a CDO squared "Enron Special" SPV, Germany has once again made it very clear that not only will there not be any expansion in the EFSF in regular terms, but certainly not in structural ones. As Goldman's Dirk Schumacher makes it very clear, any attempts at imposing on Germany a fait accompli reality that has no bearing in actual reality (especially one that excludes the only relevant decision-maker in Europe) will be met with increasing protests from the entire German ruling class. According to Die Welt, the Free Democratic Party is threatening to vote against overhaul of EFSF if discussions about leveraging fund don’t stop. Goldman elaborates: "FDP and CSU not fond of further increase of EFSF. Leading figures from the FDP and the CSU, the Bavarian branch of the CDU, rejected any thoughts of a further increase of the EFSF (either directly or indirectly through leverage). FDP general secretary Lindner said that "the chancellor should make clear immediately that there is no change to the business model of the EFSF." So, yes, consider that an official denial of the Liesman rumor which as typical, has no confirmation anywhere else.

"We're not doing this for the Greeks, but for us," said Angela Merkel amidst a cacophony of doomsday scenarios. It's all about propping up German banks and exporters. For the French, however, the European debt crisis doesn't seem to exist.

While we shared our brief summary of last night's lengthy ARD 1 interview with Angela Merkel, the Chancellor's views bear repeating since we are now just 4 days away from the critical EFSF expansion ratification vote to be held this Thursday in Germany. While expectations are for a prompt passage the downside, as improbable as it appears, bears some attention. Here is Goldman's Dirk Schumacher with a summary of what to expect this week out of Germany.