Germany

Remember when we said (yesterday) that Germany will soon balk over the fact that it is pledging its entire economy to bail out an insolvent Europe? Well, that moment has come.

• German Govt: Italy Too Big For EFSF To Save - Spiegel
• German Govt: Doubts Whether Tripling EFSF Would Help It Save Italy
• German Govt: Italy Must Make Savings, Reforms To Exit Crisis - Spiegel
• Italy Debt Guarantee Could Raise Doubts Over Germany's Finances - Spiegel
• German Govt: EFSF Should Only Help Small, Mid-Size Countries - Spiegel

The easy way out of turning to bigger, more solvent governments for bailouts has run its course.

Well over a month after predicting the second Greek "bailout" plan was just hot air, we are not only back to square minus one but heading backward. And while the market's attention is now focused on Italy, and soon Spain and Belgium, the weakest link still is Greece, whose bankruptcy, despite all the posturing may be coming sooner than most expect. It appears that Germany is once again in the renegade drivers' seat and has reverted to its core plan of taking its chances with a Greek default, breaking away from the ECB's position, and ultimately saying let the chips fall where they may. To wit, from Market News: "Lars Feld, a member of the German government's Council of Independent Economic Advisers, on Thursday criticized the European Central Bank for blocking a restructuring of Greek debt."

The much ridiculed "MLEC-type" bailout proposal of Greece, which contemplates the rolling of existing debt into a guaranteed SPV, and which was the European rescue deux ex machina for exactly two weeks, appears to have been pulled off the table, following the announcement by German Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Asmussen to Reuters Insider TV that "Germany has put a Greek bond swap back on the table as a model for private sector involvement in fresh aid for Athens." More: "The model put forward by some French banks is still a good base for discussions and we are currently working on this. But since rating agencies have signalled that they will consider modalities (such as) the French proposal as a selective default -- that means a rating event -- we can also put other options like a bond exchange on the table." he said, adding discussions would take place over the summer break. Translation: back to square minus one. And actually it is much worse, because if Asmussen is aware of rating agency policy, a debt exchange would most certainly qualify for an event of default. Which confirms our initial expectation from a month ago that there is nothing absent a complete loss of ECB credibility that can possibly transpire next, as the ECB realizes there is no way around accepting defaulted Greek bonds as collateral. The only question is what happens then: will the market, head currently deep in the sand, scramble upon the confirmation that the ECB emperor is naked, or will it continue acting as if nothing has changed yet again.

Up until this point, Spiegel has been relatively objective in its coverage of the Eurozone implosion (unlike Handelsblatt, which we still await to apologize for losing all of its readers millions if not billions for urging them to invest in Greek bonds because it is their patriotic duty). That is until today. In an opinion piece, Henrik Muller writes that "if the Euro fails, Germany will be responsible" lamenting that it "may seem absurd that Berlin is perceived abroad as 'euro Nazis' rather than as a benevolent leader. But should the common currency fail, Berlin will be to blame."

The one catalyst which sent the EURUSD (and thus its first derivative, the SPX) surging on Friday was the Guardian story that Germany, Sarkozy and most importantly, the ECB, have reached a consensus over the form of the second Greek bailout. In the immediate aftermath, Greece, sensing European weakness, announced that it would seek to pass the Troica plan however with substantial changes, a development which prompted us to say that "now that Merkel has effectively thrown in the towel to her, and the
CDU's, political reign by agreeing with the ECB's and France's demands,
a move which will be brutalized by Der Spiegel in T minus 5 minutes,
the fact that Europe blinked to Greece's bluff, just may mean that every
demand out of Greece will be met." Well, sure enough here is Der Spiegel, however instead of seen as bending over to Greece, Germany appears to have had a dramatic change of heart, and told not only Greece to take its demands and shove them, but the ECB to go fornicate itself.

It appears that even a Stuxnet-crippled Iran can strike back. As the WSJ reports, "Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador in Berlin Tuesday after Iran temporarily blocked a plane carrying German Chancellor Angela Merkel from entering its airspace" in what has the making of a major diplomatic scandal. Merkel, along with a large German delegation was en route to India for an official visit, and had expected to get an uncontested green light to fly in Tehran-controlled skies, when the permission was granted... for over two hours. NDTV has more: "In an incident that could have serious diplomatic consequences, Iran temporarily refused to allow German Chancellor Angela Merkel's plane to enter its airspace on Tuesday. The plane reportedly had to circle over Turkey for two hours before being given permission to enter. The government aircraft was denied overflight rights in the early hours of Tuesday. The exact reason for the denial of overflight rights is unclear. But before the plane left Berlin on Monday evening, it was reportedly given permission by Iranian authorities. Germany along with the US and its other allies in NATO has long been at loggerheads with Iran essentially over its nuclear arms policy and alleged support to terror." Who could have possibly conceived that a country ostracized by the global community can possibly strike back. All we can say is that Air Force One better fly the friendly skies when it travels over the Middle East going forward or else it may be forced to discover just how efficient its flare and chaff Electronic Counter Measures truly are...

Like clockwork, hours before the US market reopens, we get another Greece bailout. Since last week's Chinese white knight "rescue" of Portugal helped the EUR for about 18 hours, it is now time to get the biggest guns possible out: the WSJ reports that Germany, contrary to populist demand which has indicated that another German bailout of Greece would mean the end of Angela Merkel, has decided to allow Greek bailout round two to proceed. Per the WSJ: "Germany is considering dropping its push for an early rescheduling of
Greek bonds in order to facilitate a new package of aid loans for
Greece, according to people familiar with the matter.Berlin's concession that it must lend Greece more money, even without burden-sharing by bondholders in the short term, would help Europe overcome its impasse over Greece's funding needs before the indebted country runs out of cash in mid-July." The end result: the EURUSD surged by 70 pips from the closing print of 1.4270 to a high of 1.4350, although the half life of even that innuendo appears to have peaked and the pair is now on the way down, as it does absolutely nothing, except to destroy any credibility Merkel may have had, to resolve the impasse which is that, well, Greece is bankrupt.

Certainly no one should expect Europe’s banks to suffer their own losses after making idiotic loans to corrupt governments. It’s much easier to stick the people with the bill by establishing a trillion dollar bailout fund with taxpayer money. Problem is, people in Europe are starting to wake up and get it. The anti-euro “True Finn” party in Finland recently surged in the polls to become the country’s third-largest political party and a major obstacle for any European bailout. This weekend, Spain’s ruling Socialist party was hammered with losses as voters voiced their utter disgust with the current government’s handling of the economy. In Germany, this year’s state election results are showing that voters are sick and tired of shouldering the financial burden for the rest of Europe. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling party is losing miserably, though in a pathetically desperate move, some local governments are changing suffrage limits and allowing 16-year olds to vote. This is the strongest indicator yet of how bad the situation in Europe has become: German banks are so over-exposed to the PIIGS sovereign debt that, in the face of political revolt all across Europe, German politicians have resorted to recruiting the Justin Bieber crowd to maintain the status quo.

To all Americans complaining about high taxes, better keep your beef on this side of the Atlantic. According to a recent OECD report, captured by the Economist, when it comes to total taxes paid out by both employees and employers, the US doesn't even come close to its just slightly more socialist European cousins. In fact, while total taxation as a % labor costs is about 30% in the US, comparable with Japan and Ireland, in France and Germany this number is nearly half of the total. Which explains why there is no greater threat to these two countries than the perpetuation of the status quo welfare state. Should Greece file Chapter, who knows what will happen to the Bismarckian ideal. Incidentally, on the other end: Chile, which pays out just 7% of labor costs to taxes. Per the article: "The report splits out the tax burden on employment which is paid by employers (in the form of social-security payments) and employees (as income tax and more social security). France and Germany have some of the most costly tax regimes—with people who earn the average wage taking home just over 50% of their total labour cost. The effect of fiscal austerity, particularly across Europe, has meant that the tax burden rose in 22 out of the 34 countries in the OECD from 2009 to 2010. Meanwhile real incomes for average-wages earners fell in 15 OECD countries. As the second chart shows, these reduced earnings caused by the world recession and subsequent inflation tend to have a much larger impact on incomes."

Today's EUR trading session which begins in about 4 hours, may be rather violent. While on one hand we have bond-negative news out of Spain, the biggest news once again comes out of the Swiss journal NZZ, which citing greek newspaper Kahtimerini, discloses that insolvent Greece has less than two months of cash left, or enough to last it until July 18, unless a new installment in the bailout tranche is approved for the country by the now headless IMF, and the "suddenly" insolvent ECB. Insolvent, because as Spiegel will report in its headline article tomorrow, and as we have noted many times before, the bank is suddenly finding itself lending out money collateralized by now virtually D-rated bonds: something not even Trichet will be able to spin off to the increasingly malevolent media. Per Dow Jones: "Skeleton risks amounting to several hundreds of billions of euros are on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank, magazine Der Spiegel writes in a preview of its edition to be published Monday. Those risks arise because banks, above all from Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, have provided as collateral asset-backed securities that are unfit for central bank loans as their debt rating is low or non-existent, the magazine says." Alas, the European central bank's dirty laundry is being exposed just as a rift between the bank and Germany: its most solvent backer, is starting to develop. Also from Dow Jones: "German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble cautioned in an interview published Sunday that there shouldn't be a conflict with the European Central Bank over a possible restructuring of Greek debt. "If in the end it should come to an extension of bonds, of course, we need the approval of the IMF and above all of the ECB. Under no circumstances should it come to a conflict with the ECB," Schaeuble told Bild am Sonntag. "I advise all of us to use restraint in public debates about this question." Several ECB officials have rejected a restructuring of Greek debt and have warned of possible catastrophic consequences, while European finance ministers are slowly warming up to the possibility of some kind of restructuring as a last resort." Thus the crunch time for Europe's latest kick the can down the road round, once again centered on a bankrupt Greece, may be coming fast, and this time with a rather furious Germany.

In a free market, we wouldn't have unsafe nuclear reactors ...

In a very unstunning development which would expose all those Greek and EU proclamations about a solvent Greece for another relentless barrage of lies, it appears that Germany is now resolved to not only restructuring Greece (and with certain Greek bonds trading around 60 the market has effectively thrown in the towel), but has provided a timeframe in which this should occur: "German government sources said on Monday Greece will likely restructure its sovereign debt before the end of summer, putting a time frame to recent speculation that sent the euro to its lowest in two weeks. "Decisive voices within the federal government expect that Greece will not make it through the summer without a restructuring," one high-ranking coalition source told Reuters. "That does not mean that the federal government is striving for (a restructuring) but such a step will probably not be avoidable," he added, echoing views from other coalition sources." Supposedly the thinking in Europe is that banks should have built up a sufficiently large capital buffer to where the permanent impairment of Greek senior debt will not lead to another bank run. The question however is how well has Europe considered any other unpredictable consequences, which by definition, are "unpredictable." Recall that the financial system nearly ended after the Lehman bankruptcy following the freeze in money markets: a side effect that nobody had expected at the time. What will happen this time around when Greece becomes the first "Lehman" in the sovereign realm, and just how many trillions will have to be invested to undo "unforeseen" consequences?

As we pointed out yesterday, while the US navy is seriously starting to amass in the Persian Gulf region, it has left the Mediterranean and more importantly, the Libyan coastline unguarded. With concerns that Gaddafi will follow through with what we speculated on Monday was a Saddam-like "after me the flood" act and burn his oil facilities, this may not be the most prudent thing. Luckily, here comes Germany. According to Spiegel, Germany has sent three warships to Libya which may possibly get involved in a "military engagement."

Europe is abuzz this morning following a Die Zeit article indicating that Germany was planning for a Greek debt restructuring, one that would allow Greek to retire debt earlier than expected. From Market Watch: "The German and Greek finance ministries on Wednesday denied a report in the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit that the German government was weighing a plan that would allow Greece to retire some debt early, using subsidies from the European Financial Stability Facility, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Spreads on Greek credit default swaps, or CDS, initially widened but then narrowed after the Die Zeit report was denied." And while everyone is of course immediately denying that the EFSF is nothing but one big ponzi vehicle, which it would turn out to be should this report be proven true, Goldman's Dirk Schumacher has released two notes which confirm that this is indeed precisely the plan. And just as Goldman dictates US fiscal and monetary policy, so its European strategists are critical in determining European pyramid, kick the can down the line plans.