Germany

"There no obvious solution. This is why we think that a second election around March 2016 is as likely as any of the alternatives. [In fact,] an early election in the short or medium term seems the most likely outcome."

This weekend the force was strong with thirty (and forty, and fifty) year-olds, wishing to awaken memories of their youthful days with an admirable redo of the first Star Wars movie, first released nearly 40 years ago. But the force has never been stronger with Disney which is expected to rake in a record-breaking $238 million in opening weekend box office sales in the US and Canada, and a near-record $279 million overseas, a grand total of well over half a billion around the globe.

The basic policy-difference on Syria has been between U.S. President Barack Obama’s insistence that Syria’s legal President must be ousted before any peace-process starts, versus Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence that no foreign power possesses the right to determine whom the leader of Syria or any other country will or won’t be - only the residents there do, via free and fair democratic elections. Putin proposes an internationally monitored and verified election in Syria to determine the identity of Syria’s President; Obama has rejected that proposal - until now.

“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

In the wake of a Security Council resolution on Syria that failed to consider the fate of Bashar al-Assad, a belligerent Turkey is fuming mad. In comments made from Istanbul on Saturday, PM Ahmet Davutoglu said the UN's stance "lacks realistic perspective." He also said Turkish troops will remain in Iraq until Mosul is "freed" from ISIS. Translation: Turkish boots will be on Iraqi ground for the foreseeable future.

The announcement of the restoration of Israel-Turkish relations should be seen in the context of Turkey having nowhere else to go.

As Spiegel reports, an ISIS turncoat now in German custody says that "during his time in the Syrian warzone, he frequently heard people talking about attacks in the West and says that pretty much every European jihadist was approached with the same questions he had been asked." "They want something that happens everywhere at the same time."

"Turkey and Qatar face common problems and we are both very concerned about developments in the region and uncertain policies of other countries. We confront common enemies. At this critical time for the Middle East cooperation between us is vital."

On Friday we get still more evidence that the West is begrudgingly coming to terms with the fact that Assad will be sticking around for the foreseeable future in Syria, as Bild (citing anonymous sources) says German spies have been "cooperating" with Assad for "some time" and are set to establish an intelligence cell in Damascus.

Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

Heading into the Fed's first "dovish" rate hike in nearly a decade, the consensus was two-fold: as a result of relentless telegraphing of the Fed's intentions, the hike is priced in, and it will be a "dovish" hike, with the Fed lowering its forecast for the number of hikes over the next year. Consensus was once again wrong on both accounts: first the rate hike was far more hawkish than most had expected (see previous post), and - judging by the surge in Asian, European stocks and US equity futures - the "market" simply is enamored with such hawkish hikes which will soon soak up trillions in liquidity from the financial system.

If ecological panic is the primary trigger of collapse, war and industrialized death, the elites escape all blame. They are the ones, after all, trying to “save us” from ourselves by introducing carbon emissions controls, not to mention the idea of population controls. Global warming becomes a catch-all bogeyman, a Frankenstein monstrosity created by humanity and plaguing humanity. Those who deny the existence of global warming or who question the legitimacy of its high priests (climate scientists) are not exercising their right to skepticism; they are contributing to inevitable genocide. Therefore, climate denial would have to be punished by governments, as climate scientists have been publicly suggesting.

• Fed Poised to Mark the End of an Era (Hilsenrath)
• Fed opens meeting to put an end to crisis era policy (Reuters)
• Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide (BBG)
• Emerging Markets Gird for Fed Rate Increase (WSJ)
• What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like (BBG)
• 5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting (WSJ)

The day has come when the boxed-in Fed has no choice: with the vast majority of the market expecting a rate hike, Yellen has to deliver or suffer a crushing confidence blow like no other. And deliver she will, with expectations that said hike will be "as dovish as possible." For now however, the market is desperate to convince itself that just as more easing and more QE were bullish for the market, so rate hikes are just as bullish. Recall from late 2013: "tapering is not tightening," then the 2015 version of this refrain is "tightening is not tightening."

Most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare.