Germany

Tyler Durden's picture

"Stop Being So Negative": Putting It All Together





Considering:

1) governments are unable to eliminate deficits
2) global government debt is increasing exponentially
3) 0% interest rates are allowing governments to borrow more to pay off old loans and fund deficits
4) Global growth is declining despite money printing and bailouts And, we've saved the latest and greatest fact for last: as stunning as 0% interest rates sound, the mathematically-challenged-fantasyland called Europe has just one upped everyone by introducing NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Events In The Coming Week





Quickly looking at the potential market moving events this week, US payrolls on Friday will be the clear focus. In terms of expectations, our US colleagues are expecting a +225k print which matches the current Bloomberg consensus, while they expect the unemployment rate to drop one-tenth to 5.4%. Elsewhere, Thursday’s UK Election will be closely followed while Greece will once again be front and center.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: May 4





  • Win or lose, Cameron's political career hangs by a thread (Reuters)
  • Greece aims for deal with lenders, IMF hard on reforms: minister (Reuters)
  • Greek Jobless Legacy Adds Danger for Tsipras as Funds Dry Up (BBG)
  • U.S. Will Change Stance on Secret Phone Tracking (WSJ)
  • China April HSBC PMI shows biggest drop in factory activity in a year (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs in Talks to Sell Its Coal Mines (WSJ)
  • Takeover Fuel Begins to Flow as S&P 500 Bull Run Makes History (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Levitate Following Worst Chinese Mfg PMI In One Year, Brent At 2015 Highs; Bund Slide Continues





The best news for stocks is twofold: volumes continue to be lethargic with both the UK (May Day bank holiday) and Japan closed until Thursday (Golden Week), while the bulk of the S&P500 has now exited the stock buyback quiet period. As such, ignore record equity outflows - all the matters is that corporate CFOs, flush with brand news bond issuance cash, will tell their favorite Wall Street trading desk to buy stocks at just the right inflection point sending the market surging just as shorts once again test the downtrend and the 50 DMA.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Deflation Is Unlikely





The prices of gold and silver reflect the deflationary view to the exclusion of the likely outcome of all this experimentation. There is no doubt that many dealers believe that gold and silver are merely commodities, otherwise they would be chasing their prices upwards in a dash for cash. Future historians should be puzzled.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

There Is No Solution To The Crisis





The end result of Fed policy appears to be to keep us in perpetual economic malaise, to keep us all confused. They keep interest rates low masking the huge structural issues of huge federal budget deficits and whenever the economy appears to be picking up a bit, they threaten to take away the government props of QE and low interest rates faster thereby slapping down the economy. All this happening while the ticking time bomb of huge Federal Debt accumulates more potency. There is no solution to the crisis, merely a choice of which roads to choose, a deflationary debt collapse, or a hyperinflationary dollar collapse or World War III. Pick your poison...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why Central Banks Hate Physical, Love "Earmarked" Gold, And What Is The Difference





Until the advent of the BIS, gold held by central banks came in one version. Physical. It was only after the BIS arrived on the scene did gold's macabre doppelganger, so-called paper, registered or "earmarked", gold emerge for the first time. Here is a brief history of how earmarked gold came into being...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Paul Craig Roberts: "Insanity Grips The Western World"





There is little sign that Washington and its vassals care about life on Earth.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Explains The "Self-Fulfilling Loop" Driving Bund Yields





"As the decline in yields that has followed the liquidity injections has made its way to intermediate maturities, the market has extrapolated that the Bundesbank would have to purchase a larger share of longer maturity bonds to fill its quota. This is a self-reinforcing expectations loop, where lower yields beget lower yields," Goldman notes, describing the dynamic driving Bunds. We would note that this type of feedback loop also operates in the other direction and could thus be rather dangerous in a market that is becoming structurally very thin.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Charlie Munger Compares Greece To a "Frivolous, Drunken Brother-In-Law"





Having previously effused over gold and holocaust jews, bailouts, and handouts, Buffett & Munger took aim at Europe, well more implicitly Greece, during today's annual octagenerian-fest.

Munger on Euro strains: You shouldn't create a partnership with your drunken, shiftless brother in law.
And Buffett's (implicit Grexit) retort: the euro can and probably should survive but it will take some changes...

As he previously said, Germany must stop Greek dog peeing on its rug.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Markets Are Stirring: Complacency Meets Froth





Peering into the froth of a cappuccino, we noticed various sized bubbles. There is a fine line between froth and bubbles. As we continued our gaze, both eventually disappeared. Stirring made the frothy bubbles disappear more quickly. Markets are beginning to stir (more later). Unsustainable states ultimately end.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Completely Absurd" To Think Greece Won't Default In May: Official





Facing a pensioner rebellion and a looming payment due to the IMF, Greece’s back is now truly against the wall. As Handelsblatt reports, even if a deal were reached with creditors this weekend, it may now be logistically impossible for Greece to make a €780 million payment scheduled for May 12. Oh well, there's always war reparations...

 
Marc To Market's picture

Dollar's Demise Exaggerated: Technicals Anticipate Turn in Fundamentals





Yogi Berra, one of the keenest observers of the human condition, is said to have once remarked "It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future."  And so it is.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Happens When You Hand Over Your Gold To The Bank Of England For "Safekeeping"





With London, Paris, and Basel’s compliance, Nazi Germany had just looted 23.1 metric tons of gold without a shot being fired.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Europe Has A "Severe Case Of Low-Flation", Goldman Says





"The effects on underlying inflation have so far been tepid. What is worrisome is that market participants still do not see consumer price inflation returning to the ECB’s 2% target on a sustained basis, let alone going above it, over any reasonable time horizon," Goldman says. And while the bank is ultimately confident that the Goldmanite in charge of the ECB will succeed in driving up inflation over time, the market would be wise to note that the US and Japanese experience with QE don't provide much in the way of empirical support for that contention.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!