So far it has been an overnight session which clearly forgot to take its lithium, with futures first tumbling after CNBC's "leak" that a Greek deal had been reached was refuted, only to surge subsequently on both the Riskbank's foray into NIRP and QE which crushed the Swedish currency and sent its stocks to recorder highs, and more importantly, on the latest ceasefire out of Minsk which has pushed Russian and European assets substantially higher. While only the most naive believe that any palpable end to Ukraine hostilities will emerge as a result of today's delay, expect for Greek headlines to return with a vengeance as today it is Tsipras' turn to speak at a summit of the 28 European Union leaders set to begin momentarily.
Ukraine Ceasefire Deal Agreed After Negotiations All-Nighter; Doubts Remain About Its ImplementationSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2015 06:34 -0500
It would have simply been too much to handle for Europe and the risk off algos if hours after the embarrassing failure of the emergency Eurogroup meeting in Brussels failed to reach any deal involving Greece, the Ukraine ceasefire negotiations in Minsk were also to fall apart. Again. Which is probably why after a marathon session lasting 17 hours, and following repeated trial balloons that a deal had and/or had not been reached, a short while ago all major media outlets were delighted to finally blast some Risk On news namely that leaders of France and Germany brokered a renewed deal to end Ukraine’s 10-month civil war in the separatist eastern region, which means that we have a Minsk-signed Ukraine ceasefire. Again.
Greek Deal Falls Apart After EU Says "No Way Forward", No Eurogroup Statement; Greece "Questions Merit" Of Bailout ExtensionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2015 22:43 -0500
Following earlier deal rumors citing 'unidentified sources' stating that:*GREECE AGREEMENT `IN PRINCIPLE' REACHED, GREECE WILL STAY IN EU BAILOUT PROGRAM, DETAILS OF GREECE DEAL UNCLEAR, CNBC REPORTS (after which stocks futures and EURUSD surged), the Eurogroup and Greece have completely denied any progress was made whatsoever...
GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS NO AGREEMENT IN EUROGROUP, GREECE WILL NOT ACCEPT AN EXTENSION OF CURRENT BAILOUT
DIJSSELBLOEM: NO STATEMENT POSSIBLE WITHOUT JOINT CONCLUSIONS
GREECE WOULD NEVER AGREE TO STAY IN CURRENT PROGRAM: VAROUFAKIS
EU President Jeroen Dijsselbloem is about to explain how there is an agreement in principle (if Greece folds, follows the program it's been given and behaves itself - which they have since confirmed they won't) and that discussions are ongoing (haven't changed on bit all day)...
First there was The BRIC nations; then South Africa was rolled in and the group became BRICS; but with news today (following yesterday's Russian invitations for Greece's new leader to meet with Vladimir Putin) that Greece's new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been invited to visit Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, we wonder if the growing non-dollar partnership will be expanded to BRICSH as The Hellenic Republic prepares to walk away from its European overlords 'partners'.
It looks reasonable that investors would not ask for an additional compensation for a source of risk that has limited direct economic bearing for other asset classes.... Such a conclusion would cease to hold, in our view, if Greece were to leave the common currency. Indeed, ‘Grexit’ would constitute a non-diversifiable event, affecting all financial assets. This is because, upon the departure of one of its members, EMU would likely be seen as a fixed exchange rate arrangement between countries which can elect to adhere or leave. Convertibility risk would resurface, exposing the possibility of a collapse of the entire project.
Well that didn't take long. Just an hour or so after Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and Putin got together to drink tea in Minsk, they have a 'deal':
*RUSSIA, UKRAINE, GERMANY, FRANCE LEADERS READY DECLARATION TO REAFFIRM MINSK CEASE-FIRE DEAL: IFX
*JOINT DECLARATION IN SUPPORT OF UKRAINE'S TERRITORIAL SOVEREIGNTY
So - to summarize - they agree to a cease-fire (which saw 1000s killed and shelling continue last time) and to support Ukraine's territorial sovereignty (except of course Eastern Ukraine?) Face-saving headline-maker comes to mind. Stocks don't care though - they are buying it.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has fueled a resurgence in totalitarianism. Capital controls. Exchange controls. Wage and price controls... and now Border controls and people controls. As of this morning, the government of Ukraine started... “reinforcing”... the defenses of Kiev with eight barricaded checkpoints. Walls are never, ever erected to keep people out. They’re built to trap people inside.
Since the anti-austerity Syriza party's victory in Greece's recent general election, the “Greek problem" is again preoccupying markets and policymakers throughout Europe. Some fear a return to the uncertainty of 2012, when many thought that a Greek default and exit from the eurozone were imminent.
After paying governments, you'll be paying corporates...
The Fed is no longer engaging in QE. Profits will now be the largest drivers of stocks. And profits are collapsing.
There’s nothing good left from the initial idea that gave birth to the EU. It’s devolved into something utterly ugly, in which fat Germans driving their Mercs and Beamers down the autobahn can yell at their car stereos that those lazy Greeks must pay their due - which stems from Merkel et al. bailing out Deutsche Bank’s insanely outsized derivatives portfolios. The whole thing is so morally bankrupt, it’s really insane that we’re still trying to have a serious discussion about it. The whole thing, the entire global banking system, is as morally bankrupt as it is financially. So far, all the EU has (anyone notice how silent the IMF has been?) is hubris, bluster and chest-thumping. They play politicians, but Syriza plays real life.
All Out War Pt 3: Contrary to Central Bank Rhetoric, the Danish Krone Peg's as Fragile As Glass, May Throw Banks Into Turmoil!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 02/11/2015 08:22 -0500
Exactly as I warned 3 wks ago, Nordic countries are facing pressure. Here's strong evidence of a krone break, havoc to ensue in global banks, how to monetize when skittish brokers pull access & leverage.