All eyes will be on Mario Draghi on Thursday as expectations for something big from the former Goldmanite have grown over the past two weeks. More specifically, some now think the odds of QE expansion have increased considerably in light of collapsing eurozone inflation expectations, the incipient threat of some $1 trillion in QE-offsetting EM FX reserve draw downs, turmoil in China's financial markets, heightened volatility across the globe, and chaos in emerging markets from LatAm to AsiaPac.
With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.
Live feed from China's Tiananmen Square, where moments ago, China's historic 70th V-Day celebration parade has begun.
The Italian, Hungarian, Greek etc. governments should issue rail tickets from their countries to Brussels and tell the refugees that that’s where the European capital is, and to apply there for visas, asylum, and everything else. Let’s see how Brussels deals with 50,000 -100,000 people in its streets and parks, with more coming every day, while the whole world is watching live on a hundred new channels. Brussels lives by the adage of divide and rule. And that serves only the bureaucrats that inhabit the institution. Not the refugees, and not the people of Europe.
Something is afoot as de-dollarization escalates around the world. With CNY/RUB trading volumes up a stunning 400% year-over-year to record highs, and hot on the heels of China's (and much of EM Asia) dumping dollar assets, Russian President Vladimir Putin has just unleashed a new bill aiming to completely eliminate the US dollar from the trade of goods.
Europe's refugee crisis just took a dramatic turn for the worse, and strikes at the very hear of Europe's Shengen customs union which has allowed borderless travel within Europe for decades. As Bloomberg reports, the Italian Province of Bolzano in Northern Italy said in a statement that it agreed with the Italian government on request by German Federal State of Bavaria by "communicating a willingness to restore border controls at Brenner and temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement."
As Deutsche Bank put it on Tuesday, we've officially reached the end of the "Great Accumulation" as slumping Chinese growth, plunging crude, and an imminent Fed hike have put enormous pressure on emerging economies’ accumulated stash of FX reserves and that means that buyers of USD assets are becoming sellers at the expense of global liquidity and the perpetual bid for some core paper. Now, Goldman has weighed in, noting that the rise in foreign FX reserves held by non-G-7 countries that started around 2003-04 (at around US$1trn) appears to have ended for good.
- Markets on edge as policymakers flex muscles (Reuters)
- European shares recover from rough ride (Reuters)
- For Stock Markets, the Moment When Humans Matter (WSJ)
- Puerto Rico's PREPA, bondholders have framework for deal (Reuters)
- Hundreds of migrants protest at Budapest station, want to go to Germany (Reuters)
- New Whale Seen Moving Tokyo Markets (BBG)
China Stocks Fail To Close Green Ahead Of National Holiday Despite Constant Intervention, US Futures ReboundSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/02/2015 06:51 -0400
Since today was the last day of trading for Chinese stocks this week ahead of the 4-day extended September 3 military parade holiday to mark the 70th anniversary of the allied victory over Japan, and since Chinese stocks opened to yet another early trading rout coupled with the PBOC's biggest Yuan strengthening since 2010 as we observed earlier, there was only one thing that was certain: massive intervention by the Chinese "National Team" to get stocks as close to green as possible. Sure enough they tried, and tried so hard the "hulk's" green color almost came through in the last hour of trading and yet, despite the symbolic importance of having a green close at least one day this week ahead of China's victory over a World War II foe, Beijing was unable to defeat the market even once in the latest week which will hardly bode well for Chinese stocks come next week.
Not a week goes by without the Pentagon carping about an ominous Russian "threat". The Pentagon’s rhetorical games also serve to mask a real high-stakes process; essentially an energy war – centering on the control of oil, natural gas and mineral resources of Russia and Central Asia. Will this wealth be controlled by oligarch frontmen “supervised” by their masters in New York and London, or by Russia and its Central Asian partners? Thus the relentless propaganda war.
If we could put the economics of Bernie Sanders into a nutshell, it would be this: Burden private enterprise with one directive after another, and then demonize it when it ultimately falls down under the awful weight of taxes, higher costs, and mandates. While many people believe that instituting the Sanders economic agenda would help turn the USA into another Sweden or Denmark, the more likely outcome would be turning this country into another Venezuela.
In an unprecedented move to stem the tsunami of migrants entering Europe, Hungary has decided to stop all trains at Budapest main train station to stop refugees - most of them from conflict areas such as Syria - from entering the EU onwards to Austria and Germany. For now, there are 1000s of refugees waiting at the station, with entrances blocked by police.
Third Greek Bailout Suddenly In Jeopardy: Creditors Warn Cash May Be Delayed If Elections Don't Go As DesiredSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/01/2015 11:14 -0400
Just when everyone was convinced that the main "risk off" event of the summer, namely the Greek bailout, was safely tucked away and that having abdicated its sovereignty to its creditors and Germany in particular, who now hold the Greek banking system hostage courtesy of draconian capital controls, that Greece would continue to receive its monthly cash allotment just so it could repay creditors from its first two bailouts and would not make headlines for the foreseeable future , Market News just reported that suddenly even the Greek bailout is no longer on autopilot as a result of the upcoming elections in three weeks, whose outcome is anything but assured.
There’s no question that the world economy has been shaky at best since the crash of 2008. Yet, politicians, central banks, et al., have, since then, regularly announced that “things are picking up.” One year, we hear an announcement of “green shoots.” The next year, we hear an announcement of “shovel-ready jobs.” And yet, year after year, we witness the continued economic slump. Few dare call it a depression, but, if a depression can be defined as “a period of time in which most people’s standard of living drops significantly,” a depression it is.
It's a busy week for the market, and not to mention the Dow Jones-dependent Fed, which will have to parse through reports on Chicago PMI, Construction Spending, ISM (Mfg and Services), ADP, Productivity and Labor Costs, Factory Orders, Trade Balance, and the weekly highlight: Friday's Jobs reports.