• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Gundlach

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Oil Flash Crashes To Gundlach's Geopolitically "Terrifying Levels"





Forced liquidation... capitulation ... contract roll... or "liquidity provision" gone awry? You decide.

 
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Oil Trades Under $42 To 6 Year Lows, Gundlach Sees "Terrifying Geopolitical Consequences" Looming





For the first time since March 2009, the front-month WTI crude futures contract has traded with a $41 handle. As it draws ever nearer the 2009 lows, we are reminded of the ominous warnings that DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach issued in January. - "I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying."

 
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12 Signs That An Imminent Global Financial Crash Has Become Even More Likely





As we hurtle toward the absolutely critical months of September and October, the unraveling of the global financial system is beginning to accelerate.

 
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The Fed Is Out Of Options, "QE Is All It Can Do Here" Art Cashin Predicts





"...they're in a kind of silly loop where they did QE expecting a reaction... didn't get it.. and then they did QE again because it didn't live up to their expectations... but I think they have no other options, if things get negative on the economy, QE is all they can do."

 
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Bonds Are Back: "There Is Too Much Complacency"





Investors are too myopically focused on expectations of a steep rise in bond yields and on using central bank stimulus to pile back into riskier assets. There is too much complacency.  We believe the upside potential for Treasuries prices for the balance of the year is once again being greatly underestimated. The long end should continue to perform well under various scenarios. If the Fed hikes in September or earlier, the back end should perform well.  If the Fed breaks its implicit promise to hike rates in September, its credibility would be damaged:  unless of course, it was due to a significant deterioration in the economic or political landscape.  Either outcome would likely benefit long Treasury security prices.

 
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The "Global Macro Investor" - An Interview With Raoul Pal





"We have a problem with this, and that is central bank hubris. They now think that they are omnipotent, because, essentially the government has said we are going to pass over all control of the economy to the central banks, they say to everybody else including financial market participants that “you don’t know, you don’t understand, we have our models and they are right”. And that kind of hubristic approach is when you sow the seeds of your own destruction."

 
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Bond Rout Continues: Bunds Rise Above 1%; 30Y "Golden Crossed"; Kuroda Sends Yen Soaring





After a Chinese session which following the MSCI failure to include Chinese stocks in its EM index, if only for the time being, was largely a dud with Shanghai stocks actually dropping by 0.1% after a late day selloff, eyes turned to Europe, which once again did not disappoint and where the bond rout continued apace, with the 10Y Bund yield spiking just after the European open, and rising above 1.05%, the widest level since September 19, before recouping some losses and trading just around 1.00% at last check.

 
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The ECB Did Just As It Leaked To Its Hedge Fund Friends: European QE Activity Jumped By Over 8% In May





The ECB did just as leaked in advance. Moments ago the ECB released its latest QE purchase data in which we find that total bond purchases jumped by over 8% in the month of May, to over €51 billion, from the previous average over just around €47 billion. This was driven by a jump in German (+8.9%), French (+10%), Italian (+7.4%) and Spanish (+8%) purchases.

 
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A Generation Of Rate-Hike Rookies Makes Jeff Gundlach Nervous





Rates have been so low for so long, that many of the traders who will be on the front lines if and when the Fed ever does decide to start down the long path to normalizing policy have never, in their professional careers, seen a rate hike. “The experience that many investment operations have with rising rates for most of us is very low for some it’s nonexistent," Jeff Gundlach warns.

 
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Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Singer Reveals The "Bigger Short"





"Today, six and a half years after the collapse of Lehman, there is a Bigger Short cooking. That Bigger Short is long-term claims on paper money, i.e., bonds."

 
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Puerto Rico Faces Default, Government Shutdown On July 1





Puerto Rico is racing the clock ahead of a July 1 deadline to pass a fiscal budget for 2016 and scrape together $360 million due to creditors. Without a budget, the commonwealth will face a partial government shutdown and may be unable to issue $2.9 billion in oil-tax bonds needed to pay The Government Development Bank.

 
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Between A "Selling Panic" And Black Crows, Where Do German Bunds Go Next





Battered by Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach, SocGen warns that the current correction in 10Y Bunds remains atypical from a technical perspective and bears the characteristics of a panic selling.

 
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In The New Paranormal, Junk Bonds Are A "Haven Asset"





With NIRP having turned traditional risk-free assets into guaranteed losers, investors have poured more than $9 billion into junk bond ETFs YTD, and while common sense dictates that buying at the top of an epic HY bubble just ahead of a rate hike cycle and against a backdrop characterized by disappearing liquidity in the secondary market for corporate credit is a fool's errand, most investors feel they have little choice. 

 
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