"We would be very surprised to see a discussion of asset sales under Chair Yellen’s leadership, but a shift to more active management of the maturity of new Treasury purchases could be an option; shortening the duration of new purchases would quicken portfolio runoff once it begins." - Goldman Sachs
Speaking to Bloomberg TV in Davos, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said “the euro zone may not survive,” and added that "what went wrong is going wrong for everybody, not just going wrong for Britain, but in some ways it looks like they’re kind of doubling down."
The “bond shock” story bubbles away in the background. And with the next 50-75bps rise in yields (due to perhaps expectations of trade wars or Chinese repatriation, or even further gains in inflation), the risk of a financial “event” is likely to jump. 2016 started with pessimism and ended with optimism; 2017 starts with optimism…
"3% is basically the beginning of the end... as the business cycle ages, in 2019, 2020 when we could anticipate we might have another recession, that there will be another deflationary burst that will bring rates back down if we do get above 3%, but we haven't violated that trend yet."
Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.
"In our estimation the investment climate for risk assets after the election looks a lot like the environment before the election: risky. And while there are many valid reasons to cheer a change in tax policy, saving the U.S. and global economy from its past excesses is not one of them."
Having tumbled to a $50 handle during the day session, WTI Crude whipsawed to unchanged after API reported 1.53mm crude build (in line with expectations), a Cushing draw, and builds again (after last week's massive builds) for gasoline and distillates.
One month after his webcast titled optimistically "Drain the Swamp", which may have been an unduly optimistic look at the impact of the upcoming Trump administration, today at 4:15pm ET (1:15pm PT), bond king Jeff Gundlach kicks off the new year by holding his first for 2017 monthly DoubeLine webcast, titled "Just markets."
"Some of these pre-term policies, where he’s cajoling companies to move production back into the United States, that’s fine, but it reminds me to some extent of policies in Italy long ago associated with Mussolini and government control of corporate interests" - Bill Gross
Huge market euphoria in the absence of economic improvement, promised tax changes giving rally winners reason to wait to take profits until 2017, Obama scorching the earth everywhere, and numerous other forces mean the stock rally is going down.
Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge?
"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."