"Prepare For More Volatility As Yield 'Hunger Games' Comes To An End"

Many ill-informed pundits have taken the recent absence of volatility to mean that it is gone for good. But many smart investors, like Tepper and Gundlach and Druckenmiller, who are paid to protect their clients’ money against large drawdowns are forgoing returns today in order to protect against an anticipated pickup in extreme events in the future.  

The Floodgates Begin To Open

It’s now clear that what governments did to counter the Great Recession may have delayed systemic collapse, but did not resurrect the old normal.

GoldCore's picture

Gold forecasting is a mugs game at the best of times but given the uncertain geo-political situation, the fragile banking system and the very strong fundamentals for gold, it is hard to argue with Barnabas Gan of OCBC  or BMI. Gold should be meaningfully higher in the coming months and into 2017 as investors diversify into gold. Or rather we are likely to see dollars, euros, pounds and other fiat currencies continue to be devalued versus gold.

Gundlach: "Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse"

While Germany's largest lender would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said. “Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove, but what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”

This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next

Following today's Deutsche Bank fireworks, Goldman reports that "crisis” questions are being asked: “is there risk of a financial crisis re-run” and “can a large European bank face a liquidity event”? To answer these questions we look at the total liquidity accessible to Deutsche Bank, and what are the options facing the bank next.

Gundlach: "The Market Will Keep Pushing Deutsche Bank Lower Until It Is Bailed Out"

"The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be. One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute," Gundlach said. "It is about an event which is completely out of your control."

Soothing Fed Sends Global Stocks, US Futures, Commodities Higher

Following the Fed's "hawkish hold" and the BOJ's "confused contradiction", global risk (and non-risk) assets got the green light, and as a result stocks and bonds rallied in Asia and Europe, with US equity futures rising another 0.4%, advancing with oil and industrial metals, as iron surged in Chinese trading.

Frontrunning: September 13

  • IEA Changes View on Oil Glut, Sees Surplus Enduring in 2017 (BBG)
  • Futures dip with oil as investors assess rate hike chances (Reuters)
  • Hilsenrath - Divided Federal Reserve Is Inclined to Stand Pat (WSJ)
  • 'I didn't think it was a big deal,' Clinton says of pneumonia bout (Reuters)
  • Clinton's Lead Narrows Among Independents, Voters Nationally (NBC)
  • Libor’s Reaching Point of Pain for Companies With Big Debt Loads (BBG)

"Out Of Nowhere, Investing Feels Fun Again"

Analysis of the ECB ran the gamut from out of weapons to preparing a radical new shift. His comments on G-20 fiscal spending is raising eyebrows. No one setting Japanese policy seems on the same page. Carney is “serene,” which is nice but uninformative. Everything, suddenly, seems a bit up in the air.

"This Is A Big, Big Moment" - Gundlach Warns Yellen May Surprise Markets

In his presentation titled appropriately "Turning Points" (presented below) Gundlach said that “this is a big, big moment," predicting that “interest rates have bottomed. He also said that the Fed "wants to show that they are not guided by the markets" and that "they can’t be replaced by WIRP." A Fed surprise would send rates spiking, and Gundlach warns the 10Y may close 2016 at 2% or higher.