Gundlach

Today at 4:15pm Eastern, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach will present his 2013 outlook "Year of the Snake" touching on the economy, markets and "his outlook for what he believes may be the best investment strategies and sector allocations for 2013."

From the sheer hypocrisy of a fight over a few billion dollars when faced with trillion dollar deficits and the eventual austerity that will be forced upon the US, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach expounds during this excellent Bloomberg TV interview on his growing concerns at markets where fundamentals "are trumped by policy decisions," and while he does not believe that bond markets are bubbly at the moment, the impact of an inevitable recession could be devastating given valuations. His subtle suggestion to keep powder dry through 2013 and into 2014 (as deploying money at that future point will make all the difference), follows from his view that he does not see much value in US equities (people always want investments to go up like a line... That's just not reality) and suggests great care be taken in US bond markets (focusing on low volatility funds) as he looks at Japan's dismal record (and hyperinflationary possibilities) and reflects on the US that "the issue isn't the fiscal cliff. The issue is the fiscal crisis that the United States has been looking at for the past several years." Must watch.

The strength of the Japanese stock market over the past few weeks has been at once heralded as anticipation of Abe's policies and the renaissance of this island nation's faltering reality. However, as Bloomberg's chart of the day points out, this performance trend (just as we saw in sentiment and market performance in the US) is absolutely normal heading into an election. As the chart below shows, the election day (on average) has marked a significant short-term top in the market 12 of the last 13 previous cycles. So while Jeff Gundlach is short JPY and long NKY, we suspect there will be a better entry point for the latter 'lomg' leg just a few days after the election landslide. As Daiwa's Soichiro Monji noted "Investors buy on promises and ideals up until the election. When the parliament starts a normal session, they will start trading on reality."

Jeff Gundlach presents his latest thoughts in the following 75-slide presentation and webcast. Briefly summing it up, he expects considerably more volatility to re-appear in Europe, thinks JPY is a short (and NKY a buy) and Japan is to be closely watched, prefers Gold to stocks as a vehicle to play more quantitative easing, and is anxious of the fiscal cliff - noting that the problem was created from years of budget deficits. Some notable quotes include: "A lot of that GDP is phony"; "Japan is really out of policy tools"; "Many countries can be net debtors if central banks are monetizing debt."

Following some well-timed 'suggestions' in Natural Gas and Apple this year, the new bond guru has some rather more concerning views about the future of America. Reflecting on a dismal outlook progressing due to the fact that "Retirees take resources from a society, and workers produce resources", Gundlach has cut his exposure to US equities (apart from gold-miners and NatGas producers) noting their expensive valuation and low potential for growth. In a forthcoming Bloomberg Markets interview, the DoubleLine CEO warns we are about to enter the ominous third phase of the current debacle (Phase 1: a 27-year buildup of corporate, personal and sovereign debt. That lasted until 2008, when Phase 2 started, unfettered lending finally toppled banks and pushed the global economy into a recession, spurring governments and central banks to spend trillions of dollars to stimulate growth) as deeply indebted countries and companies, which Gundlach doesn’t name, will default sometime after 2013. "I don’t believe you’re going to get some sort of an early warning," Gundlach warns "You should be moving now."

It seems, just as everyone knew but really did not want to admit, that AAPL is the core (pun intended) of the entire risk-rally. With the re-appearance of the bond-market this morning after their long-weekend, risk-assets everywhere have caught the tech companies' cold with EURUSD at one-week lows - back under 1.2900, S&P futures tumbling back towards pre-QEternity levels and having wiped out all of last week's gains, as AAPL is down over 2% (seemingly picking up speed once we noted the 10% iCorrection earlier). Oil is holkding gains while USD strength is sapping Silver, Copper, and Gold's performance. Treasuries have snapped back to low yields of the day (down around 4-5bps). VIX has snapped back above 16% (up around 1 vol).

After last week's presentation, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach (having rotated his spec play from Long Nattie, Short AAPL - which was a winner - to Long SHCOMP, Short SPX) committed the cardinal sin in a great interview this morning with CNBC's Gary Kaminsky. The apocryphal 'new' bond guru noted that he is against big government, doesn't like risk assets at these levels, believes QE will end in higher rates (adding that he would not be surprised to see 10Y yields 100bps higher by the end of the year), but most abhorrently: "the obsession with Apple is a truly remarkable social phenomenon - the stock is over-believed and over-bought. There is NO exit for the Fed, QE3 will be ineffective, and it is more likely that the Fed buys all the Treasury bonds that exist." Two must-see clips covering why buy-and-hold is completely dead thanks to government intervention to his preference for secured credit funds (where have we heard that before?) to the huge risks in buying financial stocks and the vulnerability of risk-assets - as the world realizes the circular financing reality of Europe.

Double-Line's Jeff Gundlach presented 66 pages of chart-pr0n covering everything from Government Spending to Consumer Spending; from eating-out costs to food inflation; from future economic growth slowdown indicators to housing recovery hopes and reality; and from foreign stocks to Treasuries, MBS, and metals. Between a lack of surprise if 10Y rates were 100bps higher by year-end; and his call to 'sell the S&P 500 against a long in the Shanghai Composite', there's a little here for everyone (and his funds are killing it).

When Mr. Market ultimately becomes disenchanted with the fiscal excesses of the sovereign deadbeats, he can express his ire most energetically. When the current bond bubble here in the US ultimately bursts, as it must, it's going to be a bloodbath.  Of course, there is much, much more at stake to coming to the correct answer on the recovery, or lack thereof, than that. For instance, poor economies make for poor reelection odds for political incumbents. And when it comes to maintaining a civil society, the lack of jobs inherent in poor economies often leads to a breakdown in civility. On that note, overall unemployment in Spain is now running at depression levels of almost 25%, and youth unemployment at close to 50%. How long do you think it will be before the citizens of this prominent member of the PIIGS will refuse being led to the slaughter and start taking out their anger on the swine (governmental and private) seen as bearing some responsibility for the malaise? Meanwhile, back here in the United States, the commander-in-chief is striding around the deck of the ship of state trying to look like the right man for the job in the upcoming election, despite the gaping hole of unemployment just under the economic water line. His future prospects are very much entangled with this question of recovery.

So, what's it going to be? Recovery… no recovery… or worse, maybe even a crash?

Jeff Gundlach discussed mortgages, models, math, and moronic delusion with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV this morning. Starting with why Europe matters to US Treasury and mortgage markets, the DoubleLine boss goes on to address whether banks/hedge-funds have become too math-centric. "I don't believe in models" is how Gundlach begins his diatribe on the over-confidence in math and empirical relationships. Jeff believes there is no reason to hold any investment grade bonds that are inside of 3 years (and perhaps even 5 years) because they "just basically have no yield" and further, it is non-sensical to think that short-term interest rates are going up in the US. As Socrates said, Gundlach echoes the fact that 'one should not try to know everything; but respect the things that one cannot know' - don't delude yourself - which seems like good advice for all those with such high convictions of sustained reality. Towards the end he discusses his already-infamous short-AAPL, Long-Nattie trade - adding that the trade has 'monster legs' and the biggest mistake investors make is exiting winners too early.

You asked for it, you got it...

Just days after his last live webcast "To QE3 or Not To QE3" DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach is out once again with his latest presentation and live webcast titled "Deficits Don't Matter" (just don't tell that to the PIIGS). We are confident this is a Regan-referencing joke. Hopefully, in the off case it isn't, Jeff should also make the case why, in that case, taxation is also meaningless and should be abolished. After all, the Federal Government, courtesy of various newfangled economic theories can print its way to gargantuan debt and perpetual prosperity.

Bill Gross & PIMCO's newly created ETF (BOND) and Jeffrey Gundlach's total return fund (DBLTX) are battling the Fed and the mainstream media's strict adherence to the Dow Infinity theorem.

Appropos Bernanke's razor's-edge tight-rope-walk fence-sitting as the not-too-cold-not-too-hot economy reduces the Fed's ability to do anything, Jeff Gundlach of Double Line provided a succinct explanation of the the 'uncomfortable position' the place-of-confusion Fed finds itself in. Simplifying the dilemma to: the Fed cannot raise rates as the dramatic implications for the huge debt load (and implictly the interest expense saving the budget deficit) of the US Government are untenable while at the same time inflation (in the things we need - not just want) is rising notably. However the new bond-king notes rather sarcastically, that the Fed can show that there is only modest inflation thanks to housing and wage growth (and herelies 'the biflation'). The old-school-Fed's efforts at pre-emptive strikes against inflation is simply not going to happen, he states, citing an "intentional attempt to suppress national income - an attempt to stop nominal GDP growing too much - simply won't be tolerated until inflation moves into the 4-5% category".