Gundlach

Today at 4:15 pm Eastern, Doubleline's Jeff Gundlach will be sharing his latest outlook on the markets via an audio-only webcast, and as usual addressing what he believes are the best investment strategies. The audio for this webcast can be accessed at the link below (link to register here). Phone lines are be available for dial-in at (877) 407-1869 or for international calls (201) 689-8044.

Yesterday, when in the aftermath of the Fed's "shocking" announcement bond yields plunged, the bond kings, both old and new couldn't get to a media outlet fast enough to express their euphoria over the end of the selloff. Gross tweeted immediately that he was "not bragging but what did we tell you" while Gundlach added that he "sees a change in Psychology with the 10 Year below 2.7%." It is unclear just what psychological change he was referring to, because looking at the market it was one of resumed selling: as of moments ago, the 10 Year has retraced over a third of its plunge and is back to 2.75% and rising once again; and the 30Y has retraced over 50% of its gains at 3.80%. We are going to need another un-Taper soon.

• Obama Holds Fire on Syria, Waits on Russia Plan (WSJ)
• China Shadow Banking Returns as Growth Rebound Adds Risk (Reuters)
• Not one but two: Greece May Need Two More Aid Packages Says ECB’s Coene (WSJ)
• BoJ insider warns of need for wage rises (FT) ... as we have been warning since November, and as has not been happening
• California city backs plan to seize negative equity mortgages (Reuters)
• Home Depot Is Accused of Shaking Down Suspected Shoplifters (BBG)
• Most-Connected Man at Deutsche Bank Favors Lightest Touch (BBG)
• Norway Pledges to Limit Oil Spending (BBG)
• China Shadow Banking Returns as Growth Rebound Adds Risk (BBG)
• Gundlach Says Fed Is Mistaken in How It's Ending Easing (BBG)

At 1615ET, DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach will begin his firm's latest presentation of his market views. We already know his views on the potential for higher rates and the inevitability of the taper, "the 10Y Yield may go up to as highs as 3.1% by year-end," because "investors have switched from "I don't care about volatility, I want income" to "I don't care about income, I dont want volatility." While he previously noted he "sees no sign of that changing...", we wonder if the title of his always full of charts presentation sets up for some change - "what if?" Full presentation to follow...

It would appear that the new normal's Bond gurus are struggling with the weight of the 'Taper'-ing, deleveraging, 'special-repo'-ing, government-repress-ing, EM-crisis-ing world of extreme fast money flows that the Fed has thrust upon us. Just 3 short months ago, Jeff Gundlach said that he "expects the absolute highest for the 10-year yield this year is 2.4%, but he expects it to stay closer to 2%." However, as the 10Y yield presses up towards 3.0%, he told CNBC (in this brief but insightful clip on world flows and how he sees markets playing out) that "the 10Y Yield may go up to as highs as 3.1% by year-end," because "investors have switched from "I don't care about volatility, I want income" to "I don't care about income, I dont want volatility." He sees no sign of that changing...

Jeff Gundlach may not be present at today's DoubleLine live webcast titled ominously enough "The End of QE as We Know It", which will be led by the firm's Jeffrey Sherman, but the firm is sure to provide some guidance on how the recent bond rout has impacted bond funds, and what the future of risk duration is in a time when Bernanke seems hell bent on pushing everyone out of bonds and into stocks.

A month ago DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach laid out his most recent chartapalooza view of the world and a lot has clearly changed in that brief period. In light of his comments this morning on CNBC that "the liquidation cycle appears to have run its course with Emerging Market bonds, US junk bonds, Munis, and MBS - all of which substantially underperformed Treasuries during the rate rise... July will not be a repeat of May/June in the rate market." We expect to hear more color for this market call during his discussion starting at 1615ET.

The answer is no as higher rates on developed world debt would crush their economies. And it would hurt less indebted emerging markets too.

If we are to believe what they said, then this is the year. 2013! It’s going to happen.. The stock-market is ready to crash yet again this year and this time it’s going to be a big one. Let’s take a look at what was said, when, why and by whom.

• National Security Advisor Tom Donilon resigning, to be replaced by Susan Rice - Obama announcement to follow
• Japan's Abe targets income gains in growth strategy (Reuters), Abe unveils ‘third arrow’ reforms (FT) - generates market laughter and stock crash
• Amazon set to sell $800m in ads (FT) - personal tracking cookie data is valuable
• 60 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track (BBG)  and yet have rarely been more optimistic
• Jefferson County, Creditors Reach Deal to End Bankruptcy (BBG)
• Turks clash with police despite deputy PM's apology (Reuters)
• Rural US shrinks as young flee for the cities (FT)
• Australia holds steady on rate but may ease later (MW)
• The Wonk With the Ear of Chinese President Xi Jinping (WSJ)
• Syrian army captures strategic border town of Qusair (Reuters)

Here is a simple way to test if the last year of housing market gains have been due to a real, fundamental, consumer-led recovery, or nothing but the latest iteration of the Fed's money bubble machine manifesting itself in the place of least du jour resistance - houses: Assume rising interest rates.

It's that time of the year again when DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach delivers his mid-year sermon, which with the fascinating title "What In The World is Going On", promises to be quite a feast at 4:15 pm Eastern. So sit back, tune in, forget today's "Unlucky 21" Tragic Tuesday Taper (which would have been a victory for the bulls no matter what: Maria said so), and let some so very rare these days counterpropaganda wash over you.

Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

"QE detractors... see something quite different. They see QE as not responding to the collapse in the money multiplier but to some extent causing it. In this account QE – and the flatter yield curves that have resulted from it – has itself broken the monetary transmission mechanism, resulting in central banks pushing ever more liquidity on a limper and limper string. In this view, it is not inflation that’s at risk from QE, but rather, the health of the financial system. In this view, instead of central banks waiting for the money multiplier to rebound to old normal levels before QE is tapered or ended, central banks must taper or end QE first to induce the money multiplier and bank lending to increase."

"Since we're dealing with markets that are being manipulated by central bank policies, there is no such thing as economic analysis anymore. All you have is the imaginations of central bankers, and you don't know what they're going to do, so you have to be diversified."