Housing Starts

US Home Prices Rise Above July 2006 Levels, Hit New Record High

Almost exactly ten years after the last housing bubble burst, unleashing a dramatic crash in US real estate prices today Case Shiller reported that as of September, its Index covering all nine U.S. census divisions, surpassed the peak set in July 2006 as the housing boom topped out, and in doing so the average home price has now climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat

European shares dipped and U.S. equity-index futures (-0.3%) pointed to a lower open as traders questioned the stability of the Italian banking sector ahead of next weekend's referendum as well as the longevity of the Trumpflation rally, pressuring the dollar.  "It's a bit of a pull back in the dollar," said Societe Generale strategist Alvin Tan. "The fall in oil is pushing back U.S. bond yields and that is leading the consolidation in the dollar.. there is more scepticism about an (OPEC) output cut now."

Existing Home Sales Surge To Feb 2007 Highs Before Yuuge Spike In Mortgage Rates

October saw exisitng home sales (SAAR) surge to 5.60mm (handily better than the 5.44mm expectation). These are deals essentially done in August and September - weeks before mortgage rates exploded higher - and with median home prices hitting new highs as the cost of funding spikes, it is hard to se how this is sustainable.

Key Events In The Coming Thanksgiving-Shortened Week

The key economic releases this week in the Thanksgiving-shortened week are the durable goods report and new home sales on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Minutes from the November FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Euro In Historic Slide As Dollar Surge, Bond Rout Continues

More of the same this morning as the dollar extended its advance on the still undeteremined Trump reflationary policy measures after Yellen signaled an interest-rate hike could be imminent, while bond yields around the globe rose again, metals declined,  European stocks advanced and futures were modestly in the red just shy of all time highs.

Housing Starts Smash Expectations, Soar By Most Since 1982 To Nine Year Highs

Total housing starts soared by 25.5% sequentially in October, the biggest one month surge since July 1982, spiking from 1,054K to a whopping 1,323K, smashing expectations of 1,156K, driven by surges across virtually all regions, but most notably the Northeast and Midwest, where starts soared by more than 44%, while starts in the South and West rebounded by 17.9% and 23.2% respectively.

BOJ "Fires Warning At Bond Market" Sending Global Yields, Dollar Lower; All Eyes On Yellen

Global bond yields and the dollar both weakened after the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields, stabilizing the global bond rout, while investors awaited testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that will help shape the outlook for interest rates ahead of a December rate hike that is now seen as near certain.

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.

Markets In Turmoil: Global Bond Bloodbath, Currency Rout Accelerates As Stocks Erase Early Gains

Monday started off where Friday left off, with the dollar surge continuing, pushing the DXY above 100 for the first time since December, global bond yields soaring, emerging market currencies tumbling, and the Yuan slammed below 6.85 for the first time. However, where Monday is different is that while European stocks and US index futures started off far higher, E-minis have now faded the entire overnight rally and are now red for the session, on concerns that the spike in yields will cap any more stock upside.

Frontrunning: November 9

  • IT'S TRUMP! STUNNING OUTSIDER VICTORY FOR 45TH PRESIDENT (AP)
  • Trump Surges to Stunning Victory (WSJ)
  • Trump takes the White House in stunning upset (Reuters)
  • Trump Pledges to Rebuild America (WSJ)
  • ‘Deplorables’ Rise Up to Reshape America (WSJ)
  • Trump, as Outsider, Broke Every Rule on Road to Victory (WSJ)

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

Global Stocks, US Futures Modestly Higher As Debate Digested, Draghi Eyed

Global stocks were modestly higher, before the European Central Bank gives its policy update, while investors weigh mixed earnings results. Asian stocks rise, U.S. equity-index futures are little changed.  The euro touched its weakest level since July and stocks in the region fell after their first back-to-back gains in two weeks.