Howard Marks

Howard Marks Redux: "There They Go Again" - Why Stock Investors Develop Amnesia

"Contributing to... euphoria... is the extreme brevity of the financial memory... There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present."

Deep Thoughts From Howard Marks

"When things are going well people become greedy and enthusiastic, and when times are troubled, people become fearful and reticent. That’s just the wrong thing to do. It’s important to control fear and greed... Too little skepticism and too much eagerness in an up-market – just like too much resistance and pessimism in a down-market – can be very bad for investment results."

Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts.  Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment.  Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Stocks Are On The Wrong Side Of A Rate Hike

The problem with being a contrarian is the determination of where in a market cycle the “herd mentality” is operating. The collective wisdom of market participants is generally “right” during the middle of a market advance but “wrong” at market peaks and troughs. There are plenty of warning signals that suggest that investors should be getting more cautious with portfolio allocations. However, the “herd” is still supporting asset prices at current levels based primarily on the “fear” of missing out on further advances.

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

Bob Farrell's (Illustrated) 10-Investment Rules

Regardless of how many times we discuss these issues, quote successful investors, or warn of the dangers – the response from both individuals and investment professionals is always the same... “I am a long term, fundamental value, investor.  So these rules don’t really apply to me.” No, you’re not. Yes, they do. Individuals are long term investors only as long as the markets are rising.

World's Top Investors "Ring Alarm" At All Time Market Highs

The big rally in stocks and bonds has some of the world’s top money managers putting up warning signs. Laurence Fink and Howard Marks joined the likes of Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach cautioning that buyers may be getting ahead of themselves... by about 25%.