Iceland

The modern, debt-based economy requires constant economic expansion if only to service all that debt. So what happens when the modern economy goes ex-growth and stops expanding? Iceland already found out. Greece is in the process of discovering. But we will all get a chance to participate in this lesson. Runaway fiscal and monetary stimulus throughout the western economies is in the process of destroying the concept of creditworthiness at the centre of the modern monetary system.  Private investors, we suspect, have little or no conception of the extent to which the state is now the predominant player in the financial markets. Central banks control the money supply and interest rates. Central banking and commercial banking interests have essentially become fused. The ECB's long-term refinancing operations are banking bailouts by the back door. Central banks are now also the swing players in government bond markets which directly influences the price for corporate credit. Central bank monetary stimulus also directly influences equity market direction and confidence. Be careful, be very careful about the sort of government debt you hold. You may well end up being paid in whole- but in such depreciated terms that being "kept whole" will be meaningless in real terms.

• U.S. Postal Service to Cut 35,000 Jobs as Plants Are Shut (BBG) -Expect one whopper of a seasonal adjustment to compensate
• European Banks May Tap ECB for $629 Billion Cash (Bloomberg) - EURUSD surging as all ECB easing now priced in; Fed is next
• Madrid presses EU to ease deficit targets (FT)
• Greek Parliament Approves Debt Write-Down (WSJ)
• Mentor of Central Bankers Fischer Rues Complacency as Economy Accelerates (Bloomberg)
• Draghi Takes Tough Line on Austerity (WSJ)
• European Banks Hit by Losses (WSJ)
• Moody's: won't take ratings action on Japan on Friday (Reuters)
• Athens told to change spending and taxes (FT)

An explicit contagion path chart, since you probably won't get info like this anywhere else... 

• IMF Official: 'Huge' Greek Program Implementation Risks In Next Few Days (WSJ)
• European Banks Take Greek Hit After Deal (Bloomberg)
• Obama Urged to Resist Calls to Use Oil Reserves Amid Iran Risks (Bloomberg)
• Hungary hits at Brussels funds threat (FT)
• Bank Lobby Widened Volcker Rule Before Inciting Foreign Outrage (Bloomberg)
• Germany fights eurozone firewall moves (FT)
• New York Federal Reserve Said to Plan Sale of AIG-Linked Mortgage Bonds (Bloomberg)
• G-20 Asks Europe to Beef Up Funds (WSJ)
• New Push for Reform in China (WSJ)

While Iceland is now known as the country that is the closest earthly approximation to banker hell, it is safe to say that Greece is the terrestrial equivalent of banker heaven. Because as explained earlier today, the country's population is about to get a worse deal than your average run of the mill slave - they may get whipped, but at least never have to pay for the privilege, unlike the Greeks. Hence negative salaries. As also explained, the European bailout of Greece, is now formally a Greek bailout of Europe, funded by the country's already negative primary surplus, or better said - deficit (don't try to make mathematical sense of that - a scene out of Scanners is guaranteed). Hence, negative bailout. But the piece de resistance, and the reason why Greece is the in situ version of bankster heaven is the news from the NYT that Greece is also about to have negative gold.

• Obama Administration Said Set to Release Corporate Tax-Rate Plan Today (Bloomberg, WSJ)
• Greece races to meet bail-out demands (FT)
• IAEA ‘disappointed’ in Iran nuclear talks (FT)
• Hilsenrath: Fed Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors (WSJ)
• Fannie-Freddie Plan, Sweden FSA, Trader Suspects, CDO Lawsuit: Compliance (Bloomberg)
• Bank of England’s Bean Says Greek Deal Doesn’t End Disorderly Outcome Risk (Bloomberg)
• Greece Second Bailout Plan an ‘Important Step,’ Treasury’s Brainard Says (Bloomberg)
• Shanghai Eases Home Purchase Restrictions (Bloomberg)

Let's put things back into perspective. Europe is lending money to Greece, which according to latest rumors will at least for the time being be in the form of the dreaded Escrow Account, which in turn means that the only recipients of bailout cash will be Greek creditors, whose claims will be senior to that of the government. In other words, it will be up to Greece, and specifically its own tax "collectors" to provide the actual funding needed to run the country as bailout or not bailout, Greek mandatory (forget discretionary) expenditures will not see one penny from Europe. As a reminder, the country is already €1 billion behind schedule in revenue collections which are down 7% Y/Y compared to an expectation of 9% rise. As a further reminder, the one defining characteristic of Greek tax collectors is that they are prone to striking. Virtually all the time. And that is assuming they even have the ink to print the required tax forms. Which last year they did not. So under what realistic assumptions are Greek tax collectors laboring in the current tax year? Why, nothing short of them having to be not 100%, but 200% more efficient. From Kathimerini: "Greece’s tax collectors were told over the weekend that they would have to do a much better job this year at gathering overdue taxes. How much better? Almost 200 percent." And this, unfortunately, is where the Greek bailout comes to a screeching halt, because while it is no secret that Greek "bailouts" do nothing for the country, but merely enforce ever more stringent austerity to mask the fact that all the cash is simply going from one banker pocket to another, it is the pandemic corruption embedded in generations of behavior that is at the root of all Greek evil. And there is no eradicating that. Now tomorrow, and not by 2020.

While Greece and Europe continue sinking ever deeper into the colonial quicksand of Pax Goldmania, Iceland, which blew up, pushed its banks into bankruptcy, and arrested its corrupt bankers, is well on its way to being the world's only normal country.

• ICELAND RATINGS RAISED TO INVESTMENT GRADE BY FITCH
• FITCH UPGRADES ICELAND TO 'BBB-'; STABLE OUTLOOK
• FITCH DOES NOT EXPECT ICELAND TO SLIP BACK INTO RECESSION
• FITCH SAYS ICELAND GOVERNMENT DEBT PEAKED AT 100% OF GDP IN '11

Too bad the Goldman colony of Greece (and soon everyone else - thank you first lien "bailout" debt) will not see headlines such as these written about it any time in the next century.

Most airport book stores are crammed with the very latest business books which promise to make you a better worker at whatever job you've got, guaranteeing you a much bigger salary. ("Good to Great", "Emotional Equations", "Entreleadership", "Switch", and a myriad of other worthless drivel). I was heartened to see Michael Lewis' Boomerang, which is something I knew would interest me. So that's what I bought.

The following extract from a Bloomberg article suggests that the German mission of getting Greece to file for bankruptcy on its own, thus removing the perception that Europe has given up on the first (of many) terminal patient, own has almost succeeded. "Greek President Karolos Papoulias slammed Germany’s finance minister for recent comments about his country as stalled bailout talks stoked tensions between Greece and the northern European countries funding its rescue. “I don’t accept insults to my country by Mr. Schaeuble,” Papoulias, who fought in the resistance against the Nazis during World War II, said in a speech today. “I don’t accept it as a Greek. Who is Mr. Schaeuble to ridicule Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finns? We always had the pride to defend not just our own freedom, not just our own country, but the freedom of all of Europe."

Markets are rallying on the back of Greece’s approval of the austerity measures, and all I can think of is the ill-timed 1938 speech by Neville Chamberlain.  But analyzing that leads to dark places, far too dark for a Monday morning when the markets are up.  So I’ll try and lighten the mood, and only think about a book with talking animals – Animal Farm:

Do not imagine, comrades, that leadership is a pleasure. On the contrary, it is a deep and heavy responsibility. No one believes more firmly than Comrade Napoleon that all animals are equal. He would be only too happy to let you make your decisions for yourselves. But sometimes you might make the wrong decisions, comrades, and then where should we be?

Why do I find it so easy to imagine those words coming out of some technocrat’s mouth?  Why are the Greek people faced with bailout or chaos?  There has never been an alternative to the bailout since no politician has worked on one.  There is plenty of historical evidence showing that countries can default, and not just survive, but thrive.

Instead of defaulting a long time ago (when we first suggested it should) when it could have pulled an Iceland, taken a bitter pill, hyperinflated the drachma and in the process delevered overnight, if at a big social cost of losing its welfare safety net (which it is about to lose anyway courtesy of the PSI and OSI), and not be held captive to bigger geopolitical interests, and hostage to the banker superclass, Greece very likely could have been on the road to recovery now, granted with a totally different political regime. Instead, the political regime is the same, Greece is more in debt than ever before, the economy is in shambles, the banks have seen two straight years of bank runs, and most importantly the people now are poorer and more disenchanted than ever, and as the following story indicates, about to get far angrier than any Syntagma square riot cam (which is about to come back with a PayPerView vengeance) has shown to date. According to Kathimerini, late on Saturday evening, "A group of between 30 and 50 youngsters attacked the house of President Karolos Papoulias."

• Greek Debt Wrangle May Pull Default Trigger (Bloomberg)
• Italy Sells Maximum EU11 Billion of Bills (Bloomberg)
• Romney Demands Gingrich Apology on Immigration (Bloomberg)
• China’s Residential Prices Need to Decline 30%, Lawmaker Says (Bloomberg)
• EU Red-Flags 'Volcker' (WSJ)
• EU Official Sees Bailout-Fund Boost (WSJ)
• EU Delays Bank Bond Writedown Plans Until Fiscal Crisis Abates (Bloomberg)
• Germany Poised to Woo U.K. With Transaction Tax Alternative (Bloomberg)
• Ahmadinejad: Iran Ready to Renew Nuclear Talks (Bloomberg)
• Monti Takes On Italian Bureaucracy in Latest Policy Push to Revamp Economy (Bloomberg)

All you need to read.

When losing is "winning".