Iceland

There are plenty of valid criticisms of Bitcoin, and a clear and thoughtful expression of those criticisms can only help the marketplace improve free-market crypto currencies in the future. Yet the irrational, ramblings of a statist who clearly hasn’t taken two minutes to objectively analyze Bitcoin is of no use to anyone and a disgrace to a supposedly highbrow newspaper like the New York Times.

Here's a question-- if you're in the Land of the Free, do you think those green pieces of paper in your wallet are dollars?

They're not. A US dollar was defined by the Coinage Act of 1792 as 416 grains of standard silver. No, those green pieces of paper are Federal Reserve notes. "Notes" in this case meaning liabilities to the central bank of the United States. That makes you, me, and anyone else holding those green pieces of paper essentially creditors of the Federal Reserve, whether we signed up for it or not.

Instead of kicking the can and maintaining the zombie nation, Iceland ripped its over-levered bank-based-debacle band-aid off and has slowly but surely emerged from its own crisis (notwithstanding capital controls and pain for many) unlike the rest of the Western world which has reverted to the mean of ignorance and status quo. Now, however, The Guardian reports Iceland has one more lesson to teach the world - an Icelandic court has sentenced four former Kaupthing bankers to jail for market abuses. Instead of fining the banks (in nothing more than a cost-of-doing-business line item), there are real consequences for the actors involved...

What do people in Utah (apparently) and Republicans have in common? Now, that’s a conundrum if ever you have heard one! The clock is ticking away and I guess you still haven’t found the answer. 

• What can possibly go wrong: Tepco Successfully Removes First Nuclear Fuel Rods at Fukushima (BBG)
• Japan's Banks Find It Hard to Lend Easy Money (WSJ)
• U.S. Military Eyes Cut to Pay, Benefits (WSJ)
• Airbus to Boeing Cash In on Desert Outpost Made Field of Dreams (BBG); Dubai Air Show: Boeing leads order books race (BBG)
• Sony sells 1 million PlayStation 4 units in first 24 hours (Reuters)
• Russian Tycoon Prokhorov to Buy Kerimov's Uralkali Stake (WSJ)
• Google Opening Showrooms to Show Off Gadgets for Holidays (BBG)
• Need. Moar. Prop. Trading: Federal Reserve considering a delay to Volcker rule (FT)
• Raghuram Rajan plans ‘dramatic remaking’ of India’s banking system (FT)
• SAC Capital's Steinberg faces insider trading trial (Reuters)

Within the last seven years 11 countries (Poland (2006), Russia (2008), Finland (2009), France (2009), Sweden (2010), Iceland (2011), Spain (2011), Denmark (2012), Singapore (2012), Canada (2012) and Japan (2013) have realized the need to appoint their own Arctic ambassadors. These ambassadors are used for analysis and situational assessments in the emerging “grand Arctic game,” with the ultimate aim of exploiting mineral resources and using the Arctic route for shipping cargo from Europe to Asia. At present, China’s Arctic initiatives suggest that Beijing is eager to camouflage its true interests in the region with environmental monitoring, Arctic life protection and concerns about indigenous peoples. At the same time, Beijing is dropping hints that China is not satisfied with the current balance of power in the Arctic region.

Another of history’s many lessons is that governments under pressure become thieves. And today’s governments are under a lot of pressure.

We are now into a second week of a partial Federal Government shut-down, which is causing considerable concern, centred on the Government’s ability to finance its debt and pay interest without a budget agreed for the new fiscal year. Should this continue into next week and beyond, the Fed will have to enter damage-limitation mode if the Treasury cannot issue any more bonds because of the separate problem of the debt ceiling. With gold at an extreme low in valuation terms, current events, whichever way they go, seem unlikely to drive it much lower. A wise man perhaps should copy the Asians, who know a thing or two about paper currencies, and are buying gold in ever-increasing quantities.

"...The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value.

We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros.

The sooner the better."

- Ron Paul, 2006

Just a few weeks ago, the Icelandic government started threatening to use the European 'template' of removing guarantees on large deposits (though maintaining its capital controls) indirectly pressuring the wealthy to spend (for fear of haircuts). However, the capital controls have backfired as Bloomberg notes, Iceland’s private sector is running out of cash to repay its foreign currency debt, according to the nation’s central bank. The Prime Minister has said that the FX shortfall - exacerbated by his own policy restricting the selling of Krona - is "a matter of huge concern." The government’s biggest challenge is to allow capital to flow freely without triggering a krona sell-off that would cause Iceland’s foreign debt to spike and undermine the nation’s economic recovery.

Ready! Set! [bank]Run!

• Government Heads Toward Shutdown (WSJ), First U.S. Shutdown in 17 Years at Midnight Seen Probable (BBG), Congress in game of chicken (RTRS)
• Italian Premier Pursues Last-Ditch Rescue of Government (WSJ)
• Election risk rattles Italian government bonds (RTRS)
• Obama and Ryan Stay on Sidelines on Budget (WSJ)
• Volcker Rule Costs Tallied as U.S. Regulators Press Deadline (BBG)
• Faltering Chinese Factory Growth Adds to Rebound Fears (FT)
• Health Law Hits Late Snags as Rollout Approaches (WSJ)
• Apple Overtakes Coca-Cola as Most Valuable Brand, Study Finds (BBG)
• Euro-Area September Inflation Slows More Than Forecast on Energy (BBG) - Puting will fix that shortly

Now that "bail-ins" have become accepted practice all over the planet, no bank account and no pension fund will ever be 100% safe again. In fact, Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is already starting to happen all around the world. As we warned two years ago, "the muddle through has failed... and there may only be painful ways out of this."

Following the crisis in October 2008, Iceland's government declared all deposits in domestic financial institutions were 'blanket' guaranteed - an Emergency Act that was reafrmed twice since. However, according to RUV, the finance minister is proposing to restrict this guarantee to only deposits less-than-EUR100,000. While some might see the removal of an 'emergency' measure as a positive, it is of course sadly reminiscent of the European Union "template" to haircut large depositors. This is coincidental (threatening) timing given the current stagnation of talks between Iceland bank creditors and the government over haircuts and lifting capital controls - which have restricted the outflows of around $8 billion.