According to the “social contract theory,” we all have our roles and responsibilities. As citizens, we have a duty to inform ourselves, pay our taxes, rat out our neighbors, vote, volunteer for military service, get frisked by the TSA... and let ourselves get robbed and bullied by every jackass in a position of power. Our leaders have responsibilities, too. They are supposed to respect the constitution, except when it is inconvenient for them. Our “leaders” – aka the Deep State – can change the terms any time they want. What kind of contract is it where one party can change the deal and the other can’t? And where the other party was never given the opportunity to negotiate it, or even approve it? It’s not a contract at all. It’s just part of the mythology of modern democracy.
"The lack of progress and volatility in global equity markets the past year, which often precedes a major trend change, suggests that their risk/reward is negative without substantially lower prices and/or structural reform. Don’t hold your breath for the latter. While policymakers have no end game, markets do."
- Stanley Druckenmiller
"It Has Been A While Since We’ve Had A Profitable Quarter To Report" - Einhorn's First Quarter LetterSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2016 18:18 -0400
"It has been a while since we’ve had a profitable quarter to report. Though we would like to make it a habit, trying to manage for quarterly results is really not our philosophy. We think one of our advantages is the ability to be more patient than others, especially as investment horizons appear to be getting shorter.... the Fed’s “data dependency” doesn’t appear to relate to employment, which continues to improve, or core inflation, which is now running above its 2% target. We believe the increasingly adventurous monetary policy is bullish for gold."
Another hedge fund has decided to call it quits, this time chess-afficionado Doug Hirsch's event-driven $500 million Seneca Capital, which according to Bloomberg is returning outside capital today.
The “smart money” and by that we mean the more informed, aware and prudent investors and institutions internationally continue to have an allocation to gold and or add to existing allocations. The less informed continue to not understand or disparage gold and focus almost solely on gold’s short term price action rather than gold’s long term attributes as a hedging instrument and a safe haven asset.
Elliott's Paul Singer: "In A World Of Intentionally Degraded Currencies, Gold Should Be In Everyone's Portfolio"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2015 08:59 -0400
“In a world where the value of paper money is affirmatively aimed at being degraded by central bank policy, it’s kind of surprising to me that gold can’t catch a bid...I like gold. I believe its under-owned. It should be a part of every investment portfolio, maybe five to ten percent."
While the market was topping out, Tepper was actively adding to his bullish exposure, but not in the form of many new stock positions, when in fact he partially unloaded 15 of his 38 positions, while adding 12 new positions. It was 2 of these new additions that were particularly notable: just like in early 2014, Tepper is once again back to index investing, having added a whopping $939 million in notional-equivalent SPY Calls, and $413 million in notional-equivalent QQQ Calls. In other words, Tepper is once again making a very levered beta bet that the market will resume climbing, and he can capture the upside through SPY and QQQ calls.
Before there was Tinder, which just won a student the Ira Sohn contest for best write up for its "underappreciated valuation" in IAC, there was Adult Friend Finder, aka FriendFinder networks, a website whose sole purposes was finding, to put it bluntly, a fuck buddy. Here is a quick remind what happened to Tinder's predecessor.
In what was perhaps the most uneventful Ira Sohn book-talking conference in years, some of the biggest hedge fund names came, and as expected, talked their book. There were few surprises, perhaps with the exception of David Einhorn who may have pulled an Ackman and revealed his disdain for Pioneer Natural Resources, which sent the name and the fracking sector lower if only briefly. Indicative of the broader state of the "market" Einhorn was also the only person who pitched a short.
A little over a year ago, Ocwen was the darling of hedge funds everywhere, with such luminaries as Steve Eisman pitching it at the Ira Sohn 2013 idea conference. Since then things went downhill and fast for the mortgage servicer, which after being branded "the "Next Generation Subprime Lender" by Moodys earlier in 2014, become the primary target of the NY State regulator. However, while the company's troubles with the state of New York were not life ending, as one major settlement could put everything in the past, the latest development out of the state of California may have just killed Ocwen's (whose disingenuous name comes from spelling Newco backward) business model, after the LA Times reported the state was "seelomg to suspend the mortgage license of Ocwen Financial."
Everything (all 110 slides of it) you wanted to know about the GSEs but were afraid to ask... (with Bill Ackman's biased long perspective)
From 110 slides of Ackman-inspired Fannie Mae bullishness to Tudor-Jones "Central Bank Viagra", and from Jim Grant's "Buy Gazprom because it's the worst-managed company in the world" to Jeff Gundlach's housing recovery bearishness and "never seeing 1.5 million home starts ever again"... there was a little here for every bull, dick, and harry at the Ira Sohn conference. Perhaps noted behavioral psychologist said its best though: "be careful about the quality of advice you get."
For 18 years, the Ira Sohn Conference has enabled hedge fund managers to pitch their best long (and short) ideas to the rest of the investing public. This year's speakers include Bill Ackman, David Einhorn, Jeff Gundlach, Jim Grant, and Paul Tudor Jones. Listen carefully, trade accordingly, but bear in mind the following table when judging just how masterful of the universe these guys really are...
Ackman's Year Of Living Dangerously Get Worse - The Herbalife Timeline (Audit Complete With No Material Changes)Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2013 16:21 -0400
UPDATE: Herbalife is halted for the following news:
- HERBALIFE COMPLETES RE-AUDIT FOR FISCAL '10 '11, '12
- HERBALIFE NO MATERIAL CHANGES TO 2010, 2011 OR 2012 FINL
Which opens the doors for the substantial buyback they have planned. We suspect one can hear a pin drop in Pershing Square's headquarters.
Herbalife has re-opened up 9% over $75 on very heavy volume - It seems Ackman's "end of the earth" bet may take a little longer...
This week marks the one-year anniversary of Bill Ackman’s 342-page slide presentation at the Ira Sohn Conference in NYC. At that time he publicly disclosed his $1 billion short bet against Herbalife (HLF), accusing the company of being a pyramid scheme and claiming its stock was destined to fall to zero once regulators stepped in. As everyone knows, HLF shares plummeted, losing nearly half their value in the three days after the presentation. The market’s initial response did not last, and HLF is up about 160% since its 12/21/12 low of $26.06 (vs S&P 500 +24%). Pershing Square’s public campaign has taken many forms, as Barclays outlines below...