Iran

Popularity is something that can be determined by two things. Firstly, it doesn’t last! When too many people start liking you anyway, there is always someone that is there ready to knife you in the back. ‘Heil Caesar!’ soon turns into ‘Et tu, Brute’! 

For all those whose lifelong ambition has been to work with the recently reappointed joint Chairman/CEO of JPMorgan in the firm's legendary and infamous gold 'clearing' operation (whose formerly classified New York, the largest in the world, and London vault locations were exposed here and here), today is your lucky day...

Another event-free day in which the only major economic data point was the release of UK CPI, which joined the rest of the world in telegraphing price deflation, despite bubbles in the real estate and stock markets, printing 2.0% Y/Y on expectations of a 2.3% increase, the lowest since November 2009 and giving Mark Carney carte blanche to print as soon as he arrives on deck. In an amusing twist of European deja-vuness, last night Japan's economy minister who made waves over the weekend when he said that the Yen has dropped low enough to where people's lives may be getting complicated (i.e., inflation), refuted everything he said as having been lost in translation, and the result was a prompt move higher in the USDJPY, quickly filling the entire Sunday night gap. That said, and as has been made very clear in recent years, data is irrelevant, and the only thing that matters, at least so far in 2013, is whether it is Tuesday: the day that has seen 18 out of 18 consecutive rises in the DJIA so far in 2013, and whether there is a POMO scheduled. We are happy to answer yes to both, so sit back, and wait for the no-volume levitation to wash over ever. The US docket is empty except for Dudley and Bullard speaking, but more importantly, the fate of Jamie Dimon may be determined today when the vote on the Chairman/CEO title is due, while Tim Cook will testify in D.C. on the company's tax strategy and overseas profits.

The theory of Petrodollar Warfare can be attributed to US analyst and author William R Clarke, and his 2005 book of that title which interpreted the US-UK decision to invade Iraq in 2003. He called this an "oil currency war", but the concept of the petrodollar system and petrodollar recyling dates back to the eve of the first Oil Shock in 1973-1974. The role of the petrodollar system as a driving force of US foreign policy is explained by analysts and historians as basic to maintaining the dollar's status as the world's dominant reserve currency - and the currency in which oil is priced. Today however, with the major and massive changes of oil resource availability revealed by the shale energy revolution, rising global oil production capabilities, stagnating oil demand, and rising renewable energy supplies in all major developed countries, and the constantly declining role of oil in the economy, the Petrodollar System's days are surely numbered

A few days when reporting that the Russian Pacific fleet had crossed the Suez canal for the first time in decades in order to form a Mediterranean task force parked in Cyprus for obvious symbolic reasons (in close proximity to Syria and the Israel-parked Kearsarge), some observed that while the submarine support was adequate, the actual warship fleet designated to support any potential escalation in Syria would be largely insufficient. Perhaps the Russian Navy heard these complaints, and several hours ago RIA reported that two extra warships from the Russian Black Sea fleet had joined the Mediterranean task force, citing Capt. First Rank Vyacheslav Trukhachyov, has said. None of these recent deployment should come as a surprise: in March Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said a permanent naval task force in the Mediterranean was needed to defend Russia’s interests in the region. Read Syria, Cyrpus (where the task force will be on anchor indefinitely), and, of course, any and all western offensive involving Iran. And slowly but surely said task force is nearing completion.

We are sure every effort has been undertaken to ensure Mr. Erdogan's visit (Iran Gold or not) was a success but just in case there was any confusion if the administration has learned anything as a result of the scandals in the past week, the following tweet from CBS' White House correspondent Mark Knoller should add insight on just how much more transparent the administration is and how seriously it takes the freedom of the press...

Questioners pre-chosen and I'm not one of them. Again.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) May 16, 2013

The US is moving to broaden its 'blockade' efforts of Iran to the movement of pure gold into the Islamic Republic. The US-led embargo of Iranian crude succeeded in slowing the flow of petrodollars into the nation but as Foreign Affairs committee chairman Edward Cohen remarked, there is "no question that there is gold going from Turkey to Iran." While the official line from US elite such as Bernanke remains that 'gold is not money' it appears that increasingly other nations would disagree, as Cohen admitted, "in large measure what we're seeing is private Iranian citizens buying gold as a protection against the falling value of Iran's currency." It would seem somewhat self-evident that the US is admitting, by attempting to embargo this gold flow, that outside the US, the Dollar is becoming increasingly irrelevant (see China's gold demand); and that for many countries the petrodollar no longer exists, having been replaced by 'Petrogold'.

• As scandals mount, White House springs into damage control (Reuters)
• Glencore Xstrata chairman ousted in surprise coup (Reuters), former BP CEO Tony Hayward appointed as interim chairman (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase asks Bloomberg for data records (Telegraph)
• Platts Retains Energy Trader Confidence Amid Price-Fix Probe (BBG)
• Syrian Internet service comes back online (PCWorld)
• Japan Q1 growth hits 3.5% on Abe impact although fall in business investment clouds optimism for recovery (FT)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (BBG)
• Factory Ceiling Collapses in Cambodia (WSJ)
• Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup (BBG)
• Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job (FT)
• James Bond’s Pinewood Turned Down on $300 Million Plan (BBG)

• Once a beacon, Obama under fire over civil liberties (Reuters)
• Eurozone in longest recession since birth of currency bloc (FT)
• EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing Window (BBG)
• BMWs Cheaper Than Hyundais in Korea as Tariffs Crumble (BBG)
• Stock Boom Isn't a Bubble, Says BOJ's Kuroda (WSJ)
• Struggling France strives to shake off economic gloom (FT)
• JPMorgan investors take heat off Dimon (FT)
• Private-Equity Firms Build Instead of Buy (WSJ)
• Bloomberg Saga Highlights Clash Between Two Worlds (WSJ)
• Bank documents portray Cyprus as Russia's favorite haven (Reuters)
• HSBC Signals 14,000 Jobs Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan (BBG)
• Argentines Hold More Than $50 Billion in U.S. Currency (BBG)

For the first time in naval history, a unmanned stealth drone (the bat-wing X-47B) was launched from an aircraft carrier. As Reuters reports, the launch from the USS George H.W. Bush marks an important step toward expanded use of drones in "providing very long range stealth" capabilities. Seen as a potential answer to the threat of medium-range anti-ship missiles developed by China and Iran; with a range of 2000 nautical miles the X-47B is "strategically very important." Because of its long range and the Navy's need to have it take off and land, day and night, from an aircraft carrier, the X-47B has been designed to operate with far greater autonomy than the remotely piloted aircraft currently in use. That has raised concerns among some organizations worried about the heavy U.S. reliance on drones in warfare and the rising use of autonomous robots by the American military; but Rear Admiral Ted Branch sees it as a "red letter day... we all saw history happen."

Why There Is So Much Pro-War Reporting

At the center of any military campaign is the art of deception. In the military nothing is done without a strategy, generally planned well in advance, and the misdirection of the enemy is always part of any campaign. It would be a political disaster for Israel to attack Iran. We may begin our consideration with this premise. On the other hand, it would be politically acceptable for Israel to respond to any aggression that was inaugurated by Iran. Self-protection is always a respectable retort. The Israeli attacks are not irrelevant.

Who Should You Believe …  The UN Investigator or the U.S.?

Over the weekend Israel carried out two air strikes against Syrian positions within 48 hours. Iran is a strong supporter of Assad’s regime in Syria, and is deeply involved in the efforts to repel the rebel forces. Israel has long voiced its desires to attack Iran in order to force them to end their nuclear program before they achieve the capability to create nuclear weapons. This attack against Syria could be viewed as an indirect attack on Iran. "Israel is taking a calculated risk that Assad, Iran and Hezbollah are right now fighting a war against the Syrian rebels and probably don’t want to open up a second front against a far more formidable enemy."

What REALLY Happened?