Iran

Iran's move to test-fire a new ballistic missile in October may not have violated the letter of the nuclear accord (on which the ink is barely dry), but UN experts say it does violate a Security Council resolution, a revelation which puts the Obama administration in an extremely awkward position just as Iran was poised to see economic sanctions lifted. 

"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"

Just last week, controversial Shiite lawmaker Hanan Fatlawi suggested that John McCain was planning to coordinate with the Saudis, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey on a troop deployment to number 100,000 in Iraq. With the announcement of a new, 34 country military alliance, deputy crown prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman might have just verified Fatlawi's claims.

Since mid-2014 the Pentagon has run all manner of war games – as many as 16 times, under different scenarios – pitting NATO against Russia. All scenarios were favorable to NATO. All simulations yielded the same victor: Russia. And that’s why Erdogan’s erratic behavior actually terrifies quite a few real players from Washington to Brussels.

The libertarian spin on the path to the dark side has many lessons for our country. Shortly after 9/11, Vice President Dick Cheney said on television, “We also have to work, though, sort of the dark side, if you will.” And, stricken with terror and indulging in hate, America did embrace the dark side, accepting torture, indefinite detention, warrantless surveillance, assassination, perpetual illegal wars, and mass civilian casualties. Terror led to hate, hate led to aggression, and aggression has led to suffering, not only for the the direct victims of the wars, but for Westerners at home, as we find ourselves afflicted by blowback in the form of a refugee crisis and terrorist attacks.

As concerning and hateful as so much of Trump’s commentary is, we can at least be sure he speaks from his own twisted mind. This is precisely why he appeals to so many people in this day and age of completely captured politicians. People like the fact that every word out of his mouth hasn’t been carefully placed there by some billionaire patron. On the exact opposite end of that spectrum we find Marco Rubio. A man so incapable of free-thought, he becomes the ideal target for billionaires looking to craft the perfect puppet. Forget Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio is now the establishment GOP’s pick, and they will do everything in their power to get him the nomination.

"The U.S. troops are about to see for themselves what they're up against, and if America is serious about defeating ISIS, it will need to contribute more than guns and bullets; America's new allies will need artillery, armored vehicles and antitank weapons to match ISIS' firepower."

If You Think It's Muslims Versus Jews and Christians, You're Being Played ...

With just 72 hours to go until Yellen decides to soak up to $800 billion in liquidity, suddenly we have China and the Emerging Market fracturing, commodities plunging, and junk bonds everywhere desperate to avoid being the next to liquidate.

If the United States were truly serious about terrorism, it would start by gauging the level of threat properly and communicating that appraisal to the American people: We would also have a more honest and open discussion about our own role in generating it; we would now be having a frank discussion about the role of the media; we’d also see more creative efforts to discredit, marginalize, spoof, and embarrass the groups we oppose; and you’d see a more hardnosed approach to the various American “allies” who are part of the problem rather than being part of the solution.

One of Donald Trump's recurring refrains ever since the San Bernardino shooting, ostensibly the one which prompted him to declare he would bar Muslims from entering the country, is that the "US is at war." Whether or not that is the case remains to be seen but what is certain is that Trump is merely proposing to do what Democrat Jimmy Carter did back on April 7, 1980, when he banned Iranians from the US and deported Iranian students during the Iran hostage crisis - a time when some could argue the US was likewise in war with the Iranian regime.

'As goes oil, so goes the US equity market' appears to bethe new mantra. Just as yesterday's pump-and-dump tracked oil, so in the pre-market, WTI Crude plunged back to fresh 7-year lows after IEA warned that the oil glut will worsen, with prices lower for longer as demand remains subdued through at least 2017. This in turn sent US equities tumbling with Dow futures down 200 points (down 330 from Thursday highs).

It was a relatively calm overnight session in which European stocks wobbled modestly, Japan was up, China was down following its weakest fixing since 2011 as the PBOC continues to aggressively devalue since the SDR inclusion (stoking concerns capital outflows are once again surging), EM stocks stocks were weak and the dollar was unchanged ahead of today's retail sales data and next week's Fed meeting, and then suddenly everything snapped.