Iran

With Jeremy Corbyn's divided Labour MPs free to break party rank in Wednesday's key vote, "RAF crews could be bombing the Isis headquarters in Raqqa by the end of the week." Meanwhile, "German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Cabinet approved deploying warplanes over Syria in the fight against Islamic State."

A false capitalism reigns based on false capital - notional wealth where there is really no wealth; value where there is no value. Moments like this in history beat a path straight to currency collapse, and that will open the door to a greater collapse of all our familiar arrangements.

Without a rerun of last Friday's Chinese stock market rout, European traders could focus on what "really matters", namely how much of the ECB's upcoming 20 bps rate cut and €20 billion QE expansion (with Commerzbank saying Draghi may even hint at Europe's QE3) is priced in, and whether the ECB's actions are just modestly priced in, or more than fully, and just how big the "sell the news" event will be.The result: the Euro falls to a new 7 month low, the dollar spot index hits a new all time high, and European stocks and US futures stage another remarkable overnight comeback on the usual low volume levitation and central bank intervention.

Now that Russia has hit back at Turkey with economic sanctions designed to punish Ankara for the brazen downing of a Russian Su-24 near the Syrian border last Tuesday, the ball is back in Erdogan's court. Unless the autocrat President plans on shooting down another Russian warplane, Turkey's options may now be limited to diversifying away from Russian gas or closing the Bosphorus strait through which Moscow resupplies its forces at Latakia.

"First, the Islamic world has been the victim of terror and brutality to a larger extent territorially, to greater amount quantitatively and for a longer period in terms of time. Second, that unfortunately this violence has been supported by certain great powers through various methods and effective means."

Americans today are blissfully distracted by their iGadgets, plotting out their holiday shopping strategies, leasing new cars, eating out, and buying advance tickets to the new Star Wars movie. They don’t see the wicked winter squalls ahead which will try their souls. We are experiencing the lull before the storms, but the storms are surely coming. The potential for catastrophe is high and burying our heads in the sand is not a strategy.

It's no secret that the US has played an outsized role in facilitating Syria's five-year civil war by funneling money and guns to a hodgepodge of opposition groups. It's also no secret that The Pentagon's latest "train and equip" program was a disaster of epic proportions. But rest assured, if Washington can make it worse, Washington will make it worse, which is why we weren't surprised that the 2016 NDAA authorizes more taxpayer money for the funding of "moderate" Syrian rebels.

Over half of all the illegal migrants slated for deportation in Sweden have mysteriously disappeared.  The National Border Police Section reports that of the 21,748 individuals due to be sent home after their asylum applications were turned down, a whopping 14,140 have simply vanished off the police radar.  "We simply do not know where they are”, said a spokesman for the local police.

The recent attacks in Paris evoke strong emotions for many people, but investors need to look through those feelings to the short, medium, and long-term implications. We believe Paris may mark an important turning point for Europe and the global business cycle... but for different reasons than you may think. There is a chance that the slow disintegration of Europe will drive more capital onto US shores, boosting valuations and fueling a blow-off top in the US equity market; but beware global shocks and take any rally as a chance to get defensive.

As the US struggles to contain the Taliban, Kabul is set to receive a shipment of 10,000 Kalashnikovs from Moscow. Afghan lawmakers have also requested helicopter gunships and are now considering allowing Russia to participate directly in anti-terror ops. However, with Iran (The Kremlin's staunchest regional ally) having forged an unlikely alliance with the Taliban in an effort to subvert US influence and counter ISIS, questions abound regarding just who Russia would be targeting and who will be on the receiving end of the new AK-47s.

At least 151 people have been put to death since Saudi Arabia's current King Salman rose to power after the death of King Abdullah in January 2015, dramatically higher than the total of 90 in 2014. As Amnesty International warns, "it is clear that the Saudi Arabian authorities are using the guise of counter-terrorism to settle political scores."

“China has for decades proudly proclaimed its lack of military facilities on foreign soil, so seeking long-term military access at a quasi-base level is a massive about-face… China is poised to cross the Rubicon.”

How Uncle Sam seeded global Jihad... and cultivates it to this day.

While we patiently dig to find who the on and offshore "commodity trading" middleman are, who cart away ISIS oil to European and other international markets in exchange for hundreds of millions of dollars, one name keeps popping up as the primary culprit of regional demand for the Islamic State's "terrorist oil" - that of Turkish president Recep Erdogan's son: Bilal Erdogan.