Iran

With many suggesting the world, already gripped in a global terrorism frenzy courtesy of the CIA-created "Islamic State", is on the verge of World War III (and with a NATO power bringing down a Russian fighter jet for the first time in over 60 years one can see where they get that idea) the result has been an unprecedented surge in demand for mode n weapons of all shapes and sizes... made in the US. Demand so high, in fact, that the US simply can't keep up: "It's worldwide. The demand signal is coming in Europe, in the Pacific and in Centcom." 

"It is wrong for the United Kingdom to expect the aircrews of other nations to carry the burdens and the risks of striking ISIL in Syria to stop terrorism here in Britain!"

While US floor markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday (equity, rates and energy futures are open until 1pm Eastern), Europe and Asia (as well as US equity futures) were busy rebounding overnight on strength in the commodity complex following yesterday's news that China's metals producers have asked for a wholesale government bailout or the "QEmmodity" as we have dubbed it, for the first time since 2009, which together with news that China would soon start arresting "malicious metal sellers" has provided a push for commodity prices across the board.

The question now comes down to how Russia will respond to what happened, but perhaps even more important for observers to ponder is why the US is unofficially distancing itself from its ally’s aggression. Despite both NATO and Obama giving full backing to Turkey’s fateful decision, Reuters has quoted an anonymous American military official that purposely leaked that the Russian plane was downed while over Syrian airspace, basing the assessment on heat signature detection. This raises questions about why the US is playing both sides of the fence – on one hand, publicly supporting Turkey, while on the other, strategically releasing information that conflicts with Turkey’s official depiction of events.

The Western media will tell you that Gazprom cannot afford to cut Turkey off in retailiation for Ankara's attack on a Russian warplane. While that may be true, it's important to remember that Turkey's fallback option when it comes to replacing lost supply is Iran and under the circumstances, it seems exceptionally unlikely that Tehran would be willing to make things easier on Erdogan.

Why Now?

Some have suggested Vladmir Putin's first retaliation for the Turkish shooting down of a Russian fighter jet would be to cut off gas supplies (which represent 57% of Turkey's supply). With Russia Defense Minister stating that the "downing of the Russian warplane is a 'hostile act'," adding that the defense ministry is "devising a set of measures to respond to the incident," it seems taking the 'nuclear option' of cutting off 20% of Erdogan's entire energy supply would be a strong first non-lethal non-World-War-3-starting step.

Update: Alleged footage of the crash site inside.

"If the strike is confirmed, the TOW missile was most likely supplied through the same US and Turkey-backed logistics programme that has reportedly been supplying Alwiya al-Ashar." 

It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

Brooks, who wanted to turn Syria into Iran's Vietnam, has changed to turning it into America's Second Vietnam! Brooks wants American troops in there fighting both ISIS and Assad. He's come to the conclusion that it is America that should "waste money and effort"! But wait! There's more: The grand strategy of American policy in the Middle East, therefore, should be to do what we can to revive and reform Arab nations, to help them become functioning governing units. The "grand strategy"?

As a result of the global commodity weakness, global stocks have fallen for the first time in six days as the sell-off in commodities continued, dragging both US equity futures and European stocks lower. However, putting this in context, last week the MSCI All Country World Index posted its biggest weekly gain in six weeks: alas, without a coincident rebound in commodity prices, it will be merely the latest dead cat bounce.