Iran

What if the U.S. had not invaded Iraq in 2003? How would things be different in the Middle East today? Was Iraq, in the words of presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, the "worst foreign policy blunder" in American history? Let's take a big-picture tour of the Middle East and try to answer those questions. But first, a request: after each paragraph that follows, could you make sure to add the question “What could possibly go wrong?”

"I said it would make it very difficult for us to be able to provide the kind of support you need if the Russians were here conducting operations as well. We can't conduct operations if the Russians were operating in Iraq right now."

"We know now just how wrong everybody was....and to the rest of the world: we are done with you. Yes we wronged you but we were driven by vain men who harmed us as well as you. Even the interventions across the globe were nothing more than a way to loot the treasury. In the guise of democracy and freedom we brought war and death. We are sorry. I am sorry."

"Anything that protects the Syrian people and Syria from partition, we will not spare any effort to carry it out with our Saudi and Turkish brothers, no matter what this is. If a military intervention will protect the Syrian people from the brutality of the regime, we will do it."

As John Kerry prepares to meet Sergei Lavrov in Vienna, Putin and Assad are drawing up plans to call for elections in Syria. The idea, of course, is that Assad will prevail in a landslide, allowing Moscow to claim that the people have spoken and the regime must rightfully be restored. 

"The gratuitous labeling of Iran as part of a worldwide “axis of evil” by President Bush combined with strong U.S. criticisms of Iran’s nascent nuclear program and its meddling in Iraq led Tehran to the view that Washington had embarked on a course of confrontation in the region that would soon set a kinetic focus on Iran. Even Iran’s positive engagement in helping repair the post Taliban political environment in Afghanistan was met with indifference by Washington."

"It's Russia’s way of saying he is in our pocket, he is our asset and we will decide whether to keep him. This is for sure a preparation for a deal and one more attempt by the Russians to embolden their bargaining position. The message to the world is that Russia solves problems and you don’t. If you want to solve problems, work with us.”

Today’s task for the Republican establishment... Between now and March, they must settle on a candidate, hope his rivals get out of the race, defeat Trump in one of the first two contests, or effect his defeat by someone like Carson, then pray Trump will collapse like a house of cards. The improbabilities of accomplishing this grow by the week, and will soon start looking, increasingly, like an impossibility - absent the kind of celestial intervention that marked the career of the late Calvin Coolidge.

"Real investors" are simultaneously nervous and hopeful, confident yet resigned. Yes, their basic belief in equities as an investment class is sound and supported by the last five years of good performance. At the same time, they understand the nuances of the bear case extremely well and are prepared for a long slog of lower returns.

• Global Stock Markets Edge Higher Though Global Growth Concerns Weigh (WSJ)
• Nikkei up 1.9% because Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession (Reuters)
• Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says (BBG)
• Syria's Assad flies to Moscow to thank Russia's Putin for air strikes (Reuters)
• US Prosecutor Preet Bharara Probing Daily Fantasy-Sports Business (WSJ)
• Syrian army denies Russian ground forces fighting in Syria (Reuters)

"We wish that Iran would change its policies and stop meddling in the affairs of other countries in the region, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. We will make sure that we confront Iran's actions and shall use all our political, economic and military powers to defend our territory and people."

"In the West, they talk about ‘moderate opposition,’ but we so far haven’t seen any in Syria. Any person who takes up arms and fights the legal authorities, how moderate can he be?"

Have no fear America, because General Nagata is about to take a "senior" counterterrorism position which means the country will be protected from extremism by the kind of "creative thinking" that sent 60 undertrained fighters into the most dangerous place on earth "ill-prepared for an enemy attack" with "no support from the local population" and "poor intelligence about their foes."

Current oil prices are simply not low enough to stop over-production. Unless external investment capital is curtailed and producers learn to live within cash flow, a production surplus and low oil prices will persist for years.