Iran

"Read my lips..."

Amid what is being reported as worrying discrepancies between the U.S. and Iranian interpretations of what had been agreed, an Iranian supertanker with 2 million barrels of oil is on its way to Asia after sitting in Iranian waters for months, likely to be the first vessel holding floating excess stocks to sail after the nuclear deal.

Having surged on Tuesday when the Iran "deal" was confirmed and tumbled yesterday despite inventory draws and production decreases, WTI crude is re-slumping back to a $50 handle this morning as traders cite more Iran concerns (flattening the curve) and a Genscape report that indicates inventory builds at Cushing once again...

• Greece licks wounds after bailout vote, ECB move expected (Reuters)
• Lose-Lose: Pushing Greece Out of Euro Is Costlier Than Write-Off (BBG)
• EMU brutality in Greece has destroyed the trust of Europe's Left (Telegraph)
• Schaeuble Shrugs Off Greek Vote Saying Euro Exit Is Best (BBG)
• Merkel’s tough tactics prompt criticism in Germany and abroad (FT)
• Investors Get Caught in Oil’s Slippery Wake (WSJ)
• Obama Girds for Battle With Congress on Iran Deal (WSJ)

And so the 2015 season of the Greek drama is coming to a close following last night's vote in Greek parliament to vote the country into even more austerity than was the case before Syriza was voted into power with promises of removing all austerity, even with Europe - which formally admits Greece is unsustainable in its current debt configuration - now terminally split on how to proceed, with Germany's finmin still calling for a "temporary Grexit", the IMF demanding massive debt haircuts, while the rest of Europe (and not so happy if one is Finnish or Dutch) just happy to kick the can for the third time.

Having answered questions and got a little upset during the earlier press conference, we thought the following artist's impression of what was said just before he headed to the lectern would be insightful...

As everyone knows by now, a nuclear 'deal' between Iran and the P5+1 (US, France, China, Germany, UK, Russia) was announced earlier this week. Under this agreement, Iran promises to limit its nuclear program in return for various international sanctions to be lifted. Republicans are not happy with the deal (Boehner: "Obama's deal will only embolden Iran"); Israel's PM Netanyahu warned it was "a stunning historical mistake," but we are sure President Obama will put everyone straight as he heads into the next 60 days of Congressional wrangling...

• Tsipras Braves Parliament on Aid as Greek Outlook Worsens (BBG)
• European markets rise before Yellen speech, Greek vote (Reuters)
• China’s Growth Beats Economists’ Forecast as Stimulus Kicks In (BBG)
• China stocks drop again, positive data shrugged off (Reuters)
• Yellen intensifies Republican outreach amid Fed probe, Senate bill (Reuters)
• Iran deal holds both promise and peril for Hillary Clinton (Reuters)
• Iranians Party Into the Night as Khamenei Backs Accord (BBG)

Just when the Chinese plunge protection team (and "arrest shortie" task force) seemed to be finally getting "malicious selling" under control, first we saw a crack yesterday when the composite broke the surge of the past three days as a result of yet another spike in margin debt funded purchases, but it was last night's reminder that "good news is bad news" that really confused the stock trading farmers and grandmas, which goalseeked Chinese economic "data" beat across the board, with Q2 GDP coming solidly above expectations at 7.0%, and retail sales and industrial production both beating, but in the process raising doubts that the PBOC will continue supporting stocks.

Give-and-take... and Trust...

While slightly later than expected, a comprehensive deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program has now been reached. As Reuters reports, the agreement will be greeted with alarm in several quarters, both in Washington and Tehran and internationally too, and could yet unravel. Internationally, the deal will accelerate unease in some Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, but it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who remains the fiercest public critic and has issued a warning that the accord will "inevitably lead to a nuclear war." The deal profoundly changes the balance of power in the region, but averts the conflict that was likely otherwise, but as ECStrat notes, Iran offers exceptional investment opportunities, but the near term impact will be to continue oil’s decline back to its lows, potentially taking energy stocks with it.

• Greek lawmakers split over bailout as vote looms (Reuters)
• Greek Bailout Rests on Asset Sale Plan That Already Failed (BBG)
• Greece Needs $25 Billion to Get Through August, Scicluna Says (BBG)
• Tsipras Enters Parliament Den to Sell Aid Deal to Greeks (BBG)
• Greece makes samurai bond repayment (FT)
• Iran, World Powers Have Reached Nuclear Agreement (BBG)
• Janet Yellen’s Fed Flounders in Political Arena (WSJ)