Iran

One day after the Greek "pre-deal" was announced and the world breathed a sigh of relief, sending US stocks soaring and Greek halted stocks, well, tumbling (via ETFs and ADRs), things are oddly quiet and in fact quite red in Europe, with futures in the US modestly lower, following both China's first red close in several days (SHCOMP -1.2%), and a Europe which is hardly looking very euphoric at this moment: it is almost as if the algos finally got to read the fine print of the Greek deal after trading all day on just the headlines.

It is only fitting that almost exactly 24 hours after the Greek "pre-deal", which may and will end up crashing and burning in very short notice, another long expected "deal", one which has been about a decade in the making, was reached, when Iran reached a landmark nuclear agreement with the U.S. and five other world powers, a long-sought foreign policy goal of the Obama administration. However, just like with the Greek deal celebrations, these too will likely be short lived as the outcome sets the White House on course for months of political strife with dissenters in Congress and in allied Middle Eastern nations.

Trump has been playing the media with his supposed presidential ambitions for years, but it was clear then that it was just The Donald doing what he does best – promoting himself. And so the question jumps out at us: Why now? Although we have no concrete proof of the theory, there’s plenty of circumstantial evidence. His ties to the Clintons, his past pronouncements which are in such blatant contradiction to his current fulminations, and the cries of joy from the Clintonian gallery and the media (or do I repeat myself) all point to a single conclusion: the Trump campaign is a Democratic wrecking operation aimed straight at the GOP’s base. Donald Trump is a false-flag candidate.

U.S. oil production has peaked... at least for now. That is the conclusion from a new government report that concludes that U.S. oil production is on the decline.

• Greece Capitulates to Creditors’ Demands to Cling to Euro (BBG)
• Euro zone strikes deal with Greece after all-night struggle (Reuters)
• Tsipras Moves From Predator to Prey at Euro 'Torture' Summit (BBG)
• Euro’s Greek Boost Evaporates as Analysts Predict Losses to Come (BBG)
• Greek Fury Meets Resignation at Demands for Concessions (BBG)
• Poland Blames ‘Carefree’ Greek Populists for Tough EU Aid Deal (BBG)
• Europeans Press for Iran Nuclear Deal on Monday (WSJ)
• Iran nuclear talks: Deal 'near completion' (BBC)
• In speech, Clinton to put wages at heart of economic policy (Reuters)
• China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation (NYT)

For once the Chinese stock market rollercoaster (where the Shanghai Composite closed up 2.4% after another day of early selling) was fully upstaged by events in Europe.

The share of Americans living on more than $50-a-day dropped from 58% in 2001 to just 56% in Pew Research Center's latest report. The dubious disctinction of this depressing reality is 'exceptional' America is the only developed nation to see its standard of living drop... a narrative not even Greece suffered (but Iran did!!)

The Pentagon has released its “National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015,” June 2015. This report tells us that war with Russia is our future unless Russia agrees to become a vassal state like every country in Europe, and Canada, Australia, Ukraine, and Japan. Otherwise, the neoconservatives have decided that it is impossible for Americans to tolerate living with a country that makes decisions independently of Washington. If America cannot be The Uni-Power dictating to the world, better that we are all dead. At least that will show the Russians.

We previously questioned whether western sanctions imposed on Russia were being regularly breached by E.U. and Asian companies, noting that sanctions only work if all countries unite behind them. Now, only one year after being imposed, the sanctions are eroding as it seems that government and business policies are pulling in opposite directions. A U.S. State Dept. representative may have let the truth slip out recently when he noted, "if you tell us you’re going [to break a sanction], we’ll probably order you not to, but if you go and don’t tell us, we’ll probably do nothing."

• Only update software on down days: NYSE, SEC Suspect Software Update Triggered Trading Halt (BBG)
• Trade halts add to China’s Potemkin market problem (Reuters)
• Why Beijing’s Efforts Have Failed to Tame China’s Stock Market (WSJ)
• Irrational Exuberance Triggers Chaos as China Watchdog Sidelined (BBG)
• China bounce ends five-day losing streak for stocks (Reuters)
• Fear Grows in Greece as Decisive Hour Nears (WSJ)
• Once Swarming with Greek Visitors, a Bulgarian Town Reels as Business Languishes (WSJ)
• Greece Shuts Markets Through July 13 as Officials Debate Bailout (BBG)
• Germany calls for European defence sector consolidation (Reuters)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke to U.S. President Barack Obama by telephone on Tuesday shortly before an emergency euro zone summit and briefed him on Greece's request for a rescue loan, a Greek government official said. The official said Obama had voiced strong U.S. hopes for a successful outcome to the negotiations. The United States has said it wants an early solution to Greece's debt crisis that keeps Athens in the European currency area.

While not predicting that Tehran and six world powers will strike a deal by the new July 10 deadline, a senior Iranian oil official says his country hopes to nearly double its crude exports immediately if and when sanctions are lifted and hopes that OPEC will accommodate this growth by capping production by the cartel’s other members. “We are like a pilot on the runway ready to take off,” Mansour Moazami, Iran’s deputy oil minister for planning and supervision, told The Wall Street Journal inTehran on July 5. “This is how the whole country is right now.”

Overnight hope has faded and WTI crude prices have retumbled as Iran deal expectations rebuild and China economic collapse fears grow. The last few days have seen crude break crucial support levels and tumble to 3 month lows, down over 12% - the biggest losing streak since November. Credit risk for HY energy names is resurgent, crushing the mal-investment dream in a double-whammy for the industry as cost of capital rises and incomes shrink.