Iran

"If the president’s announced sanctions ultimately aren’t executed, it would demonstrate a level of fecklessness that even the president hasn’t shown before."

Elections, elections, and more elections is the 'regime change' meme for 2016 but, as Bloomberg details, the key events of the year ahead vary from a California marijuana referendum to Brazil's Olympics, and from Davos to SCOTUS. No matter what, 2016 holds a lot of opportunity for volatility, and without The Fed's safety net, who knows what that means for markets...

In 2015, the iron fist of power clamped down on humanity, from warfare to terrorism to surveillance, police brutality, and corporate hegemony. The environment was repeatedly decimated, the health of citizens was constantly put at risk, and the justice system and media alike were perverted to serve the interests of the powers that be. However, while 2015 was discouraging for more reasons than most of us can count, many of the year’s most underreported stories evidence not only a widespread pattern that explicitly reveals the nature of power, but pushback from human beings worldwide on a path toward a better world.

Earlier today, we outlined Washington's plan to slap new sanctions on Iran in connection the October test-firing of Tehran's next generation, surface-to-surface ballistic-missile Emad. It didn't take long for Iran to hit back, with President Rouhani now reportedly ordering the Defense Ministry to "expedite" missile development.

USDJPY tried and failed... and so the machines shifted their momentum ignition efforts to crude - ramping WTI back up to post-API inventory build levels... If this fails to break the S&P above VWAP, VIX will be slammed...

On the heels of a “close call” in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, Washington is preparing new sanctions against a handful of companies and individuals tied to Tehran’s ballistic-missile program. "We've been looking for some time‎ at options for additional actions related to Iran's ballistic missile program based on our continued concerns about its activities,” an unnamed US official says. Iran calls the new actions "illegal."

• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
• Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
• From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
• Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)

America is being destroyed by problems that are unaddressed. Unbridled greed, short-term in nature, will continue to drive America into the ground.

Last night's surprisingly large inventory build reported by API (+2.9mm vs expectations of -2.5mm) sent hopeful crude prices reeling (not helped by comments from Iran and Saudi this morning). Following last week's huge 5.9mm draw, DOE reports a 2.63mm build (confirming API's data). Cushing (which API reported as a 923k build) also saw DOE report a 0.9mm barrel build (pushing closer to its limits). As we have detailed previously, December typically sees major drawdowns in inventory as energy firms attempt to minimize tax burdens into year-end. December 2015 has seen a notably lower drawdown.

"The bottom line is that people around the world, regardless of their nationality, should know that the United States is not spying on ordinary people who don’t threaten our national security, and that we take their privacy concerns into account in our policies and procedures.  This applies to foreign leaders as well." - Barack Obama, January 17, 2014

As we recently reported, the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman had made its way through The Mediterranean Sea, launchiung airstrikes on Syria and Iraq on its way. While the proximity of so many vessels, fighter jets, coasts, friends, enemies, and frenemies was always precarious, NBC News reports that the carrier came within 1500 yards of an Iranian rocket fired in a live-fire exercise in the Straits of Hormuz last week. US officials said this was "unnecessarily provocative and unsafe" from Obama's nuclear-deal partners.

"At current prices we estimate that valuations for the oil and gas group reflect an implied Brent crude oil price in the range of $65-70/bbl while natural gas leveraged companies reflect a Henry Hub natural gas price in the range of $3.00/Mcf."

The $1.15 trillion spending bill passed by Congress last Friday and quickly signed by President Obama is just the latest triumph in the plutocratic management of politics that has accelerated since 9/11...proof that Washington can work. Mainstream media didn’t stop to ask: “Yes, but work for whom?” Instead, the anchors acted as amplifiers for official spin - repeating the mantra-of-the-hour that while this is not “a perfect bill,” it does a lot of good things. “But for whom? At what price?” went unasked. Secrecy today. Secrecy tomorrow. Secrecy forever. They are determined that we not know who owns them.