Iran

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Frontrunning: July 20





  • Gold Plunges to Lowest Since 2010 (BBG)
  • In Greek crisis, one big unhappy EU family (Reuters)
  • Greek Banks Reopen Their Doors (WSJ)
  • Greek reshuffle hints at autumn election (FT)
  • Angela Merkel signals conditions for Greek debt talks (FT)
  • Dollar hits three-month high on rate view, pans gold (Reuters)
  • History Shows Iran Could Surprise the Oil Market (BBG)
  • ‘Charlie Hebdo’ Will Cease Publishing Cartoons of Prophet Muhammad (Newsweek)
 
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Concentrated Wealth + Widespread Stupidity = End Of Democracy





This is how democracy has died in America. The formula is simple: billionaires + their (and their many clergy’s) suckers = aristocracy. The result is, in any case, an aristocratic dictatorship, no sort of authentic democracy whatsoever. And, when even the Democratic candidate has gotten there by a string of lies and no substantive record on which voters can know that his assertions don’t match his real beliefs or commitments, the voters are trapped by the aristocracy: they’ve got nothing else to go on but the aristocracy’s lies, and the aristocratically owned ‘news’ media’s stenographic transmissions of their politicians’ lies to the public. The American Revolution (1765-83) overthrew Britain’s aristocracy here. But now, the American people need to overthrow America’s own aristocracy, or else simply accept fascism (rule by an aristocracy).

 
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Shell Warns, Oil Price Recovery To Take 5 Years





Andy Brown, a top Shell official, said the Anglo-Dutch oil giant forecasts no quick rebound in the average global price of oil, but only a gradual recovery lasting five years. He attributed this sluggishness to a slowdown in China’s economy, leading a drop in demand for fuel, and the continuing oversupply of oil. “It will take several years [for oil prices to recover fully], but we do believe fundamentals will return,” Brown said. “Until such time, we, like other companies, will have to make sure we stay robust.”

 
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Historic Iran Nuke Deal Resets Eurasia's "Great Game"





This is it. It is indeed historic. And diplomacy eventually wins. In terms of the New Great Game in Eurasia, and the ongoing tectonic shifts reorganizing Eurasia, this is huge: Iran — supported by Russia and China — has finally, successfully, called the long, winding 12-year-long Atlanticist bluff on its “nuclear weapons.” And this only happened because the Obama administration needed 1) a lone foreign policy success, and 2) a go at trying to influence at least laterally the onset of the new Eurasia-centered geopolitical order.

 
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Paul Craig Roberts: Greece's Lesson For Russia





Greece’s lesson for Russia, and for China and Iran, is to avoid all financial relationships with the West. The West simply cannot be trusted. The “globalism” that is hyped in the West is inconsistent with Washington’s unilateralism. No country with assets inside the Western system can afford to have policy differences with Washington. It is testimony to the insouciance of our time that the stark inconsistency of globalism with American unilateralism has passed unnoticed.

 
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Dollar Bulls in Charge, but Stretched Technicals May Test Conviction





The dollar made new multi-year highs against the dollar-bloc and is bid against most major and em currncies.  Why?  

 
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Iran Is Hiding 51 Million Oil Barrels At Sea, Maritime Tracker Reports





With yesterday's appearance what seems like the first Iran oil tanker to set sail post-nuke-deal, Haaretz reports that Iran has been hiding millions of barrels of oil it never reported to the United States or in the world oil market, according to a company that has developed sophisticated maritime tracking technology. With the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, Iran denies it’s storing oil at sea, despite reports that surfaced in The New York Times as early as 2012; but Ami Daniel, Windward founder and cochairman, shows "the Iranians are taking huge, 280-meter-long ships and filling them with oil, to sit at sea and wait. Because the sanctions allow for production of only three million barrels a day, they began storing the remainder... oil tankers have been sitting in the Gulf for anywhere between three and six months, just waiting for orders."

 

 
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Thank Goodness Everything's Fixed





The trick is to borrow as much as you can and leverage it to the hilt, and buy, buy, buy.

 
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More Job Losses Coming To U.S. Shale





The coming few months will prove challenging for the sector, and some small and medium U.S. producers may start missing their debt repayments or even file for bankruptcy. Quicksilver Resources and American Eagle Energy are two of the six U.S. based companies that have filed for bankruptcy in 2015 so far. Sabine Oil and Gas Corp. is the latest, and the biggest, U.S. producer to file for bankruptcy so far. Even mergers and acquisitions have slowed down considerably for the U.S. oil and gas industry in 2015. If the present trend persists, companies will have no choice but to cut their workforces even further to remain competitive and reduce their rising overheads. If oil prices remain in the range of $50 per barrel for longer than expected, even big operators such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips (who have so far not made any major layoffs) could start downsizing their workforce.

 
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How Likely Is Hyperinflation In The U.S?





Hyperinflation in the U.S. is coming sometime in the next 20 years or so, and this isn't a cry from a Chicken Little, but a conclusion that the analysis strongly suggests. It is possible hyperinflation could happen during the next few years, but that seems unlikely since it would require a series of major crises and political blunders – events unprecedented in the history of the United States. If this led to a corruption of Constitutional rights in the midst of an exaltation of the Executive Branch that resulted in loss of the rule of law, hyperinflation might result. It is much more probable that hyperinflation will be preceded by a long slow decline that will include a protracted period of high inflation, and that the crash of the dollar and hyperinflation will be the final tumble off a looming, steep cliff.

 
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If You Like Your Nuclear Bomb-Free Iran, You Can Keep It...





"Read my lips..."

 
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Here Comes The Oil Glut: First Iranian Oil Tanker Sets Sail





Amid what is being reported as worrying discrepancies between the U.S. and Iranian interpretations of what had been agreed, an Iranian supertanker with 2 million barrels of oil is on its way to Asia after sitting in Iranian waters for months, likely to be the first vessel holding floating excess stocks to sail after the nuclear deal.

 
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WTI Tumbles Back To A $50 Handle On Iran, Default, And Cushing Build Fears





Having surged on Tuesday when the Iran "deal" was confirmed and tumbled yesterday despite inventory draws and production decreases, WTI crude is re-slumping back to a $50 handle this morning as traders cite more Iran concerns (flattening the curve) and a Genscape report that indicates inventory builds at Cushing once again...

 
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