Iran

Why Canada's Oil Industry May Never Be The Same

It is increasingly certain that the future will not be like the past. Previous downturns have been equally devastating but the primary causes eventually reversed themselves; low commodity prices recovered and damaging government policies were rescinded. This recovery will be different for a variety of reasons which will combine to cap growth, opportunity and profits, even if oil and gas prices spike. The following major changes appear permanent...

"Peak Oil Demand" - The Collapse Of The Old Oil Order

Sunday, April 17th was the designated moment. The world’s leading oil producers were expected to bring fresh discipline to the chaotic petroleum market and spark a return to high prices. But what happens if confidence in the eventual resurgence of demand begins to wither? Then the incentives to cooperate begin to evaporate, too, and it’s every producer for itself in a mad scramble to protect market share. This new reality -- a world in which “peak oil demand,” rather than “peak oil,” will shape the consciousness of major players -- is what the Doha catastrophe foreshadowed.

"Nobody Knows Anything" - The Battle Of The Oil Analysts

The famous Hollywood adage - 'nobody knows anything' - seems to perfectly apply to the current turbulence in the oil market. So in an effort to clarify where the global oil economy is heading to, let’s engage in a Battle of the Oil Analysts. Relying on these Oil Analysts (OA) does not necessarily mean you will be handed straightforward answers, but perhaps with some luck you will see a ray of light.

One More Casualty Of The 9/11 Farce - The Petrodollar

It’s been about 15 years now since passenger airliners struck the World Trade Center towers on 9/11, and we are still suffering the consequences of that day, though perhaps not in the ways many Americans might believe. The 9/11 attacks were billed by the Bush Administration as a “wake-up call” for the U.S., and neocons called it the new Pearl Harbor. But instead of it being an awaking, the American public was led further into blind ignorance. Clearly, after 15 years of disastrous policy, it is time to admit that the U.S. response to 9/11 has damaged us far more than the actual attacks ever could.

The Death of Free Speech: The West Veils Itself

Last week, Nazimuddin Samad sat at his computer at home and penned a few critical lines against the Islamist drift of his country, Bangladesh. The day after, Samad was approached by four men shouting "Allahu Akbar!" ("Allah is great!") and hacked him to death with machetes. But this and other shocking killings have not been worth of a single line in Europe's newspapers. Is it because these bloggers are less famous than the cartoonists murdered at Charlie Hebdo? Is it because their stories did not come from the City of Light, Paris, but from one of the poorest and darkest cities in the world, Dhaka? No, it is because the West has capitulated on freedom of expression.

The $2 Trillion Gamble That Saudi Arabia Cannot Win

The Vision for 2030 is mostly smoke and mirrors. Saudi Arabia probably cannot replace the money it will lose if oil goes out of style and so is doomed to downward mobility and very possibly significant instability. It has been a great party since the 1940s; it is going to be a hell of a hangover.

Iran's Supreme Leader Accuses Obama Of Lifting Sanctions Only "On Paper"

Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which supposed had thawed as part of Obama's landmark 2015 nuclear deal which also allowed Iran to resume exporting its oil, are once again on the fence following a statement by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which accused the United States of scaring businesses away from Tehran and undermining a deal to lift international sanctions. 

German Nuclear Power Plant Confirms It Was Infected With Computer Viruses

We finally got confirmation of news from two days ago that a German nuclear power plant had been infected with malware after Reuters reports that the nuclear power plant was indeed infected with not one but several computer viruses. But don't worry, Reuters is quick to calm a concerned public, "they appear not to have posed a threat to the facility's operations because it is isolated from the Internet, the station's operator said on Tuesday." The Gundremmingen plant in question is located about 120 km (75 miles) northwest of Munich, is run by the German utility RWE.

Obama Blowback & Saudi Arabia's "Real Nuclear Option"

For all the pledges of eternal love, it’s an open secret in the Beltway that the House of Saud is the object of bipartisan contempt; and their purchased support, when push comes to shove, may reveal itself to be worthless. Now picture a geopolitical no exit with a self-cornered House of Saud having both superpowers, the US and Russia, as their enemies.

Will Algos Push Oil Back To $60? Morgan Stanley Begs You To "Forgive The Macros, They Know Not What They Do"

“Close your eyes and buy” seems to be the mantra for now. While fundamentals don’t justify a cyclical recovery in oil yet, the market continues to move higher. The primary driving force has been macro funds, index money and CTAs. Technicals and momentum have only added to it, and there is a sense from some of investors that they need to buy for fear of missing out. Similar to 2015, we see a confirmation bias where any bullish data point is embraced outages, weekly US production, etc) and bearish data points are dismissed or spun as a buying opportunity.

Computer Virus Discovered In German Nuclear Power Plant

Remember when "someone" used the Stuxnet virus in an Iranian nuclear plant several years ago to freeze Iranian nuclear production, leading to a major diplomatic scandal involving the spy agencies of both the US and Israel, as the world learned that in the present day industrial sabotage only needed a flash drive and a computer virus to render even the most sophisticated piece of industrial machinery obsolete? Well, a few minutes ago, Bloomberg reported that a computer virus was discovered in a German nuclear power plant.

Why Oil Dropped: Saudis Set To Boost Production In Scramble For Chinese Demand

After meandering steadily higher for the past week, and completely ignoring the negative newsflow out of the Doha meeting, today oil took an unexpected leg lower to 4-day lows, leaving many stumped: what caused this drop? The answer: it looks increasingly likely that the Kingdom is targeting another 0.5-m b/d of sales, bringing its production up to a steadier 11-m b/d or higher as it scramble to regain Chinese market share lost in recent months to Russia.

The Real Reason Saudi Arabia Killed Doha

Saudi Arabia single-handedly scuttled the Doha meeting, knowing all along that Iran would not participate, with a valid reason. The Russians and others agreed to proceed without Iran, planning to include them at a later date. So if everything was known beforehand, why did the Saudi’s pour cold water on the aspirations of the remaining members, risking its alienation from Russia and the OPEC community? Was it simply Saudi enmity toward Iran? Not exactly. Upon closer scrutiny, we can find the Saudi masterstroke behind Doha.